Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Nothing has qualified yet today. Just Lillestrom as a potential on the ELO front.
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Paraguay comes through. I like this league.
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Sad state of affairs recently.
As documented in the football thread I'm sick of Romania Liga 2 now. Gone from being a league I could trust to WTF is happening now!?
Sport Huancayo are winning so only leaves Guarani is a possible and Paraguay touch wood has been good.
On the last sheet running from May 19 to July 20 I had 6 winners and 2 losers for a small profit. Since then 4 winners and 2 small losers for another small profit.
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So looking at the overnighters, Ecuador proved as inconsistent as ever. There's now been 4 wins and 4 losses. Of which 3 were minor and 1 more substantial. I didn't post this as I had no intention of being on it regardless of what tiime it was.
Of the games I am interested in Romania starts at 17:30.
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Another miserable day. Zizkov I've already covered but this weekend in general wasn't great. A late lay of Nacional was odds on but then they went 0-2 down and just when I thought I was out for a scratch @ 1-2 VAR reared its ugly head!
Variance is a bitch for sure!
Not much for tomorrow. I'll post in the afternoon.
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Too late to do anything about Zizkov but I've made a small adjustment to the ELO. It's something I've been thinking about for a while but now I've analysed it properly there doesn't seem any rational argument against.
ELO difference of 100-105 removed.
Since August this has been a losing proposition but that's not a reason in itself. No, I went back and analysed my old sheet and removing these numbers takes away £1.20 of my lovely profit. Not only that but it amends figures as follows:
S/r up from around 72.5%-73.10%
Yield up from 15.75%-16%
Average odds up very slightly from 2.66-2.68.Small differences last year but essentially risking to gain nothing all year and this year that nothing is a loss.
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Need to try and be up early. Bed soon:
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First losing day in a bit. Not a heavy one. See if tomorrow brings anything.
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Few potentials for tomorrow. Not bad for an international week:
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Only this for tomorrow but I'll be in bed:
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No ELO's tomorrow and so may be time for an early night.
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@richard-latimer great news!
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Thanks to a Larne comeback we're building some momentum again here. Another green day.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Just the one trade again today after Eindhoven won easily and I stayed out of Dundalk.
Laid Boa @ 0-1 and then re-layed @ 0-2. Goal back almost immediately so took red for around 1/4 point loss. Brusque still appeared dominant so on 90 mins and with price @ 1.16 I laid again as barely an increase in red.
Last minute goal and turned the 1/4pt red into around 0.75pts green in the end.
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ELO's
Won't be jumping on Dundalk unless inplay stats too good to miss:
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@richard-latimer good to hear!
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Much better day today even with Arsenal shitting the bed. Thanks to @Darri who has made me think about the odds before jumping in. It's not to say I don't take higher odds but I'm looking at the inplay stats before jumping on anything above 3.0 very specifically.
Worked a charm today.
Thespakusatsu was decent odds and cashed 1-1
Molde went behind and the odds were just over 3.0. left it unmatched initially. They equalised late.
Porto went behind and odds were high but you could see they were dominant and I trusted them to come back. Come back they did just before HT.
Crvena Zvezda went behind around the 60th minute and odds were around 3.5-4.0 and jumping around. Could see that the away team were 50.0 when level so more than happy to lay although I left it unmatched @ 3.0. When it finally did match it did that thing where the price crashed to 2.8 then 2.6. Thankfully Crvena got a pen and they levelled. Actually won but I was out.
Arsenal went behind but then didn't. Then they did and they did again and again. Odds were ok so not end of the world for the trade but mighty pissed off other than that!
Milan went behind but odds high and they didn't look dominant. Left it for a bit and still not dominant. Odds still high. Then Verona made it 0-2. At that point I jumped as a goal back was highly likely. Went 1-2 and I cashed. When Milan were dominating the 2nd and odds much lower I got back in. Happy 2-2 cashout.
Normally I would have been in at 0-1, re-laying 0-2 and then cashing for small green at 1-2. As is this was a big green and smaller liability.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Can't get going at the moment but I'm glat have escaped from Radnicki Nis intact.
Saarbrucken was a nice straightforward comeback.
Was all ready to lay Radnik @ 3.0 when the price jumped up beyond 4.0. Then the liquidity disappeared and so I left it. Looked suspicious and for all the world like a fix. Eventually the price came in and the lay price moved closer to back so with mere minutes left I attempted a lay @ 1.19. Didn't work but I feel ok.
Fener are usually quite reliable sowhen they went behind I didn't take too long to get involved. Price was jumping though and so no sooner that I matched @ evens the price flew in and never went back. They lost a 2nd goal and despite a re-lay there nothing doing here.On to Sunday:
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Finally stopped the bleeding again today. 1 trade, 1 win, no mistakes. Thank you NEC.
Sat:
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Should have stayed away from Ecuador but odds looked good as did inplay stats. Ecuador is definitely on my list to avoid at present until I see much much more:
