Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.
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@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)
If you did do anything at all today I hope you realised my mistake in fhg Lazio seeing as FH ave was only 0.5.
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As always it's a blueprint. Matches I'm most excited about at the moment are the ones where you'd maybe think all the goals had been used up.
Everything is dependent on the odds being what they are at the moment in terms of 1x2 and of the odds not being miniscule inplay (usually seen and excluded easily enough by H2 over 0.5 odds and general over 2.5 odds over on oddsportal.com
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@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)
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Just working my way through plan now. I'm seeing enough as mentioned to be thinking that a 4th 2nd half goal becomes probable when you have 2 early ones followed by another before the 70th minute.
Let's call this LCS80
I'd welcome any questions or feedback. Don't know how many are looking and whether I'm confusing the crap out of everyone haha!?
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Last game in Chile has a late goal too. Clearly way too many selections but all the same it's good to see.
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Making more observations:
When 2 quick goals go in and then a 3rd goes in while wating for your entry point? Guess what?! Seems another is likely if that 3rd hits before 70. At this point you're looking for an 80th minute entry.
It may even be that if a 4th hits the net by the 85th you could get in on the 90th minute as by that prices are super low and although not much data to go on there is STILL seemingly a fair chance of a 5th hitting the back of the net.
I suppose I shouldn't really be surprised. What better way to see if a game is live or not that when the goals won't stop flying in. It's interesting that this particular angle doesn't ever seem to have been discussed or explored but I'm going deeper. Need more than a couple of months data but initial prognosis is good.
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While I wouldn't dream of doing so many trades the fact they all came in bar one and one to go is still pretty awesome:
As I already pointed out there was a late goal in Chile to start things off then this....
Alanyaspor with both the FHG and the late late goal.
Atalanta with a late goal against to make it 3-3.
Dortmund with a late goal back while losingv 2-0 at Freiburg from 2 quick 2nd half goals.
Leverkusen with a 2nd FHG after the first was scored within 23mins.
Glenavon with a late goal against while winning 2-0.
Late goal in Oostende.
Late goal in Grasshoppers.
Late goal in Cercle Brugge.
Bunch of late goals in Crusaders although only needed one.
3rd goal in Lyon from 2-0 HT score.
Late goal in Ashdod.
Late goal in Heerenveen.Only match that hasn't gone to plan is Standard where no FHG and 2x SHG at the wrong times.
Still another game in Chile to go but this is a good day.
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terms of where the odds are at the moment this is my papertrading plan (would never be a question of trading all as so many fall by the wayside. Not to mention that LCS are being crushed at the moment as a whole):
The one caveat. I only have 2 selections on the 1.4 FH aveerage and it's split so would be extra cautious there.
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It may change in the end but in the first instance my papertrading plan is showing success in the following areas:
FHG
LCS70 (when there has been one early 2nd half goal putting favourite in position of drawing or losing by one
LCS75 (when there have been 2x early 2nd half goals regardless of who to or what the score isFar less successful is plain old LCS on 67 with no prior 2nd half goals and so far when looking for a 2nd FHG following a very early one.
Those 3 strats at the top provide 16 trades since the 29th Jan so not too bad if that was my largest area of profit. Having said that, 9 of those are on the FHG market and I'd prefer a much fairer split or even more leaning towards the 2nd half rather than the first.
Will look at todays in a bit but nothing until 13:00 certainly.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Not doing all my updates for Sat yet but Curico Unido 1-1 @ HT and papertrading plan says goal(s)
Late goal in that one.
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Not doing all my updates for Sat yet but Curico Unido 1-1 @ HT and papertrading plan says goal(s)
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So yet another 0-0, a 0-1 in Vitesse and a 1-0 in France. All poor results and all painfully familiar.
Far more consistently, another game shows that goals breed goals. Roda. 2 early goals and then one in the 70th. By all accounts my plan is to get in 75th minute for these so it wouldn't have hit but regardless it's great to see.
Small sample as it doesn't happen that often but the results so far are crazy consistent.
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@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Yep, didn't trade it mainly because after that first half I wouldn't know how to get in due to a lack of good odds...very new to this so I am following the forum comments and sometimes putting on small stakes to give me a better sense of when I would risk a trade.
More and more what I am finding is early 2nd half goals and lots of them, spells late goals. Another like that today in Hansa.
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@richard-latimer Yep, didn't trade it mainly because after that first half I wouldn't know how to get in due to a lack of good odds...very new to this so I am following the forum comments and sometimes putting on small stakes to give me a better sense of when I would risk a trade.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer I think the AUE v Hamburger game is making up for the lack of goals in the Serbian game.... just the wrong half so far.
Not checked yet. All papertrading until I feel confident enough haha
Oh yeah. Well that would have been a no trade.
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@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer I think the AUE v Hamburger game is making up for the lack of goals in the Serbian game.... just the wrong half so far.
Not checked yet. All papertrading until I feel confident enough haha
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer I think the AUE v Hamburger game is making up for the lack of goals in the Serbian game.... just the wrong half so far.
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Serbia provides the first poor trade of the day. You could argue it's their first game bck after a long holiday but in terms of pure goals when expected this league has proven dodge in the past.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
So, a great start. 3 green trades (2 in Brazil - 1st and 2nd half goals) and 1 in Aus (2nd half goal).
