Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Home lay if the price climbs past 1.9
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Richard Latimerreplied to Martin on 16 Jan 2025, 07:40 last edited by Richard Latimer 16 Jan 2025, 07:41
@Martin average odds around 5.3 I think. S/r should be hovering around 91% over the year.
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@Richard-Latimer those are some thin odds on the over 1.5, wishing you good luck with it.
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And the over 1.5...
Despite it not exactly taking off into orbit this one is kind of doing exactly what it should, just a bit slower than one hoped.
Start with a loss.
8 winning trades to counter the loss and more.
Then another loss.
Another 8 winning trades would be superb please (7 after today)I should also add that I only had 6 winning trades as one of the missed was in German Bundesliga before I tweaked that. The other was Guimareas.
There was one more in India but need more data there.
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A very poor start to the home lays. Here's hoping for immediate improvement:
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Nothing even potentially until Fri morning now.
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Disappointing day and yet still, the bank being split into 2 pots makes it way less so.
Newcastle went over 1.5 easily.
And the Costa Rican game minimised the damage on home lays.
Full update to follow.
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Just watched highlights. Oh my days. That goalkeeper for Al Ain....
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Well the run in the UAE had to end at some point. But why did it have to end at odds of 8.8???
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@Martin Only leagues I don't track are when liquidity and volume become too low. Then I'll wipe them from sheet and delete from filter like I did with Wales last night despite the wins.
Exception to that was Estonia where I got in a tiz and deleted from home lays sheet and filter after a very poor loss
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@Richard-Latimer do you still track them once removed or is that untracked?
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Chance to go again on Germany so soon in the over 1.5 but odds look a little high considering I'm only going up to 6.8 there now:
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Home lays:
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Now I'm actively trading the over 1.5 it will be time to start weeding out leagues I can't actually use in practice I guess.
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I don't regret my decision on Germany. It's just sods law.
Win or lose, I don't like the liquidity and volume in Wales so after tonight I'll be removing this league. Doesn't make up for what looks to be a costly mistake though.
Now looking like nothing to regret tonight. Wales is still gone though. Not a league I can upscale in the slightest.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
So that ended in my favour. 1-2.
On this basis I have to go with another home lay for this evening. Wales is currently just in the red but with only one loss from 4 trades. It is however a qualifier and everything points to the home team failing to win.
Laying Barry.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
So that ended in my favour. 1-2.
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On my radar this morning is Perth lay. It's in the probably going to be wear I consider an official selection after the game although certainly an outlier.
Perth win stats are awful.
With the overs starting well if slowly and there being 2 banks I feel now is the time for a few risks on the home lays.
Laying Perth. Starts soon.
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@Martin agreed so I don't take them out until I have reason to. With the filter in excel I can just add and remove based on what I see.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Martin I look at it differently. If there are so few selections then what are you really losing by putting them on the backburner, watching and seeing what happens.
One loss when you're only getting 3 or 4 a year is pretty pointless. One loss if you're stuck on 2 or 3 is even worse. The higher that loss the more you need to get back to break even. Could even be a couple of seasons.
yes that is a really good point, my only thought on that is that there are quite a few leagues that will only give a handful of selections so when combined can be a decent number.
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