Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

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Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Richard Latimer

Yes but also looking at FH goals.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?

Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?

Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

This is the thing: I didn't change a single thing until results dictated I needed to. The initial results were great but without further tinkering they didn't stay that way. However changes have been minimal I think I started off needing 60% goals scored/conceded by both teams etc but quickly realised a better base line could be found at 65%+.

Initially all playoff games were used until I started to see that 2nd legs were more conducive to goals than the first leg were both teams could often play with caution. That makes sense to me. Also in a playoff final there would be a level of caution.

Other than that there have been surprisingly few changes.

I think I raised minimum odds to 1.2 and decided if it traded at that before kick-off for the amount of my bet I would leave it to go inplay.

Everything else has been dictated by leagues and there has been a MASSIVE difference. Leagues in deficit are only around 1/3 of the total but amount for a massive 450pts. Taking just the leagues in profit is well over 600pts profit.

Of course as I've mentioned before I know this is not possible to follow so by filtering these performing worst there have been hardly any recent changes to the filtered table (certainly none done on a daily/weekly basis) and I've hit a balance of almost 500pts profit so far.

Silly season had little to no effect.

No idea mate. I'm collecting all this as I go haha!

I also set minimum number of games combined to 7 and stated if under 10 I wanted 100% over 1.5 rather than 80%+. These are just early season condition which have had no effect to recent results.

I know others steer well clear of certain leagues and I always wanted to believe the stats were all but it really doesn't seem as if they are. Numbers are small per league at the moment but if you combine the poorly performing leagues then they are growing in number.

At what point does it mean something? 300 bets, 500 bets, 1000 bets? In the meantime my bank would be suffering hugely if I was to use these or at the very best going nowhere. Since ruling some leagues out I have at least been breaking even for some time now as opposed to constantly losing.

Makes sense. So are you just concentrating on over 1.5 now?

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?

Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?

Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

This is the thing: I didn't change a single thing until results dictated I needed to. The initial results were great but without further tinkering they didn't stay that way. However changes have been minimal I think I started off needing 60% goals scored/conceded by both teams etc but quickly realised a better base line could be found at 65%+.

Initially all playoff games were used until I started to see that 2nd legs were more conducive to goals than the first leg were both teams could often play with caution. That makes sense to me. Also in a playoff final there would be a level of caution.

Other than that there have been surprisingly few changes.

I think I raised minimum odds to 1.2 and decided if it traded at that before kick-off for the amount of my bet I would leave it to go inplay.

Everything else has been dictated by leagues and there has been a MASSIVE difference. Leagues in deficit are only around 1/3 of the total but amount for a massive 450pts. Taking just the leagues in profit is well over 600pts profit.

Of course as I've mentioned before I know this is not possible to follow so by filtering these performing worst there have been hardly any recent changes to the filtered table (certainly none done on a daily/weekly basis) and I've hit a balance of almost 500pts profit so far.

Silly season had little to no effect.

No idea mate. I'm collecting all this as I go haha!

I also set minimum number of games combined to 7 and stated if under 10 I wanted 100% over 1.5 rather than 80%+. These are just early season condition which have had no effect to recent results.

I know others steer well clear of certain leagues and I always wanted to believe the stats were all but it really doesn't seem as if they are. Numbers are small per league at the moment but if you combine the poorly performing leagues then they are growing in number.

At what point does it mean something? 300 bets, 500 bets, 1000 bets? In the meantime my bank would be suffering hugely if I was to use these or at the very best going nowhere. Since ruling some leagues out I have at least been breaking even for some time now as opposed to constantly losing.

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer had a good look through your spreadsheet last week, some absolutely brilliant work going on there!

Thanks @Martin-Futter

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@martin-futter said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer had a good look through your spreadsheet last week, some absolutely brilliant work going on there!

You worked out what he was doing then? Took me a while

Not surprised, Spurs fan after all haha!

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?

Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?

Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

This is the thing: I didn't change a single thing until results dictated I needed to. The initial results were great but without further tinkering they didn't stay that way. However changes have been minimal I think I started off needing 60% goals scored/conceded by both teams etc but quickly realised a better base line could be found at 65%+.

Initially all playoff games were used until I started to see that 2nd legs were more conducive to goals than the first leg were both teams could often play with caution. That makes sense to me. Also in a playoff final there would be a level of caution.

Other than that there have been surprisingly few changes.

I think I raised minimum odds to 1.2 and decided if it traded at that before kick-off for the amount of my bet I would leave it to go inplay.

Everything else has been dictated by leagues and there has been a MASSIVE difference. Leagues in deficit are only around 1/3 of the total but amount for a massive 450pts. Taking just the leagues in profit is well over 600pts profit.

Of course as I've mentioned before I know this is not possible to follow so by filtering these performing worst there have been hardly any recent changes to the filtered table (certainly none done on a daily/weekly basis) and I've hit a balance of almost 500pts profit so far.

Silly season had little to no effect.

No idea mate. I'm collecting all this as I go haha!

John Folan

@martin-futter said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer had a good look through your spreadsheet last week, some absolutely brilliant work going on there!

You worked out what he was doing then? Took me a while

Martin

@richard-latimer had a good look through your spreadsheet last week, some absolutely brilliant work going on there!

John Folan

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

So questions to be asked.

Did you change anything at the end of March on your selection process?
Last month(roughly) of the season had an effect?
Anyway to get stats for this from the software?

These look as Tom said, the business. I take it over 1.5 without trading out seems to be the strategy as I know you have had a few on the go over a time period.

? Offline

I am still not convinced. Regression to the mean is a very powerful mathematical concept and I feel you have insufficient data to make the decisions you are making. Remember the presence of a correlation is not sufficient to infer the presence of a causal relationship. Leagues are not homogeneous, look at the Premiership, Klopp, Mourinho and Pep are completely different characters with differing philosophies.

It still remains however that your results for the first 250 games were truly amazing. If you had been using a well constructed infinite bank, based your investments on perceived value and used the full range of odds available in Oddschecker or Bookiesindex you would be looking at profits well in excess of 1000 pounds.

Richard Latimer

Barcelona didn't go inplay I noticed but I'd already got on by that point. No idea why as Betfair had a live stream of the game ffs!!

Richard Latimer

Paraguay and Ecuador once more this evening. Those 2 leagues combined allow for over 70pts on their own.

Richard Latimer

Nothing for Monday but anyone eagle eyed enough to spot it may have noticed I'm looking into first half goals again.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

I'm trying not to look for reasons on what has been happening as I normally do because evidently up until now they have just been theories that ultimately didn't hold true.

However,if I were to give one reason for why some leagues are failing badly and others are flying it would be this.

Leagues and teams returning to their mean. Superettan maybe and Bundesliga 2 maybe the data showing loads of goals is just a matter of time before returning to the mean.

Other than being smaller numbers I would like to think there is a reason why Paraguay is taking off into orbit and Superettan is in a large black hole of crap! Otherwise the whole thing is doomed to fail.

You say why exclude leagues, I'm not sure you have studied the sheets all that well. My main sheet including all leagues which I continue to update and collect is barely in profit and hasn't gone up properly in yonks! The filtered sheet where I'm excluding leagues as they approach/reach/breach a deficit of 20pts on the otherhand is doing very well.

Should some leagues pick right back up then I certainly won't be stupid enough to exclude them based on nothing more than an opinion.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Not an opinion. I'm following the numbers. If I'd carried on in Bundesliga 2 for example I would have lost loads even at small stakes!

Richard Latimer

Lovely high odds winner in Paraguay

? Offline

Your original model is firmly based in statistics and performs well. Why add a filter that excludes some leagues based on your personal opinion which is subjective? Is there not a way of assessing whether a league should be excluded based on data in the statistics package?

Richard Latimer

Wasn't expecting another loss in the states. Despite being a very open league results have only been average there and odds often low or too low to get on.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

I only joined 10 days ago and have been impressed by your topic. To be successful in the over 1.5 market you need to beat the rate indicated by the odds value by 10% consistently.

You quote the average odds as 1.3 which indicates a win rate of 76.9% so to be successful you need a win rate of 84.6%. Your current rate is 79.9%.

For the first 250 investments up to 29th March you had a win rate of 83.6% leading to a profit of over 200 pounds.

You have obviously been changing the system and it maybe worth checking if you made a change around the end of March that has caused you a problen?

Thanks Tom. It's not so much anything per se that has caused me a problem other than some leagues being way too inconsistent. You only find this out after the fact. My filtered leagues which are being streamlined as I go, shows almost an 85% s/r.