Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

Richard Latimer

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

Is all that from the filtered tab or the gross data?

Gross data

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

Is all that from the filtered tab or the gross data?

John Folan

The trick now is to get that strike rate up towards 90% and we are really in business. Good data set to work from tho

John Folan

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

You should beat 5.3 or more by a fair whack. Could potentially do alright getting involved on smarkets and Betdaq on the bigger leagues at 2% commission.

John Folan

But this is even better. Of the 492 games that were under 1.5 goals at half time. 400(random) had a second half goal. So laying 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 gives a strike rate of 81.30%. Meaning laying at 5.3 or under the CS at half time is providing a whopper of a return.

Ryan

@john-folan wow!!

John Folan

Ok using the LTO Overview tab 162 games were 0-0 at half time. Of those 133 had a second half goal giving a strike rate of 82.1%. Looking at the odds probability table laying the correct score at anything less than 5.50 is value. As most CS is around the 4.5 mark at half time these could potentially be a gold mine.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer Interesting that, that's a lot of games being 0-0 @ HT, I wonder how many went Over 0.5 goals instead of the 1.5 because a high number went over 1.5 I would imagine an even higher number went over 0.5 giving a great way of trading these - with pretty much a set and forget as well!

Might have hit on something beautiful here.

Ryan

@richard-latimer Interesting that, that's a lot of games being 0-0 @ HT, I wonder how many went Over 0.5 goals instead of the 1.5 because a high number went over 1.5 I would imagine an even higher number went over 0.5 giving a great way of trading these - with pretty much a set and forget as well!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

Swings and roundabouts I guess. I'm not really looking at it from a trading angle as such due to time constraints but I'm sure there would be value. Not only in average goal times but by looking at teams individually. Paraguay and Ecuador don't always seem to score early but the over 1.5 is superb for the odds you get even from kickoff.

In terms of what I can look at quite quickly there have been 162 selections from my filtered list which reached half time @ 0-0.

Of these 95 went over 1.5 and 67 stayed under. 58%. Average odds for this I'd imagine to be close to evens. Not accounting for commission and fluctuations in those odds it would be 280pts to 10pt level stakes.

Less outlay but less profit.

Obviously if you went for the 30 minute mark I'm sure the s/r would increase significantly and odds drop a little although by how much I couldn't say.

More than happy for anyone to take the data and do a little investigation there.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Nice breakdown Tom. Maybe the swings are just pure variance?

The other thing to note is if the small amount of data isn't enough to judge leagues then how could anyone be so confident of an initial 250 results regardless of well they fared?! I have seen many such runs from initial ideas which all crashed and burned. What I've not done before now is to simply accept that some leagues are best staying away from period whether it be for odds which are artificially skinny or s/r's which just don't seem to fall the way stats suggest they should.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

Swings and roundabouts I guess. I'm not really looking at it from a trading angle as such due to time constraints but I'm sure there would be value. Not only in average goal times but by looking at teams individually. Paraguay and Ecuador don't always seem to score early but the over 1.5 is superb for the odds you get even from kickoff.

Richard Latimer

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Nothing changed but results. I agree, they started off like a train but that train was derailed and I had to look at ways of getting it on the track again.

Not sure why you are not looking at the filtered sheet as that is steady up, up and up some more. Yield of almost 8%.

I've really not changed what goes on that sheet much in ages.

The overall sheet is there to act as a reference point for the GROSS data I collect.

Richard Latimer

I'm away next few days so having to post now. Don't think it's going to be too busy in any case.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get

Nice idea that Ryan

John Folan

@tom-horridge said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Something has changed.

From Feb 14th until March 15th results were great with a profit of 213.30.
Up and down until 15th April with peak of 260.74
Decline up to 8th May to 131.94
Climb again until 20 May at 200.64
Then decline to a low of 130.20
Currently at 176.58.

I am very impressed by the first 250 results in the first month. The seedcorn is good I want to discuss the best ways of planting and harvesting the crop.

Nice breakdown Tom. Maybe the swings are just pure variance?

Ryan

@richard-latimer one thing for me here is can we look at the average goal time on these? Then get in later? We will miss some bit get higher value on the ones we get