Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Just posting these overnighters for now. Rest will follow am:

[Richard Latimer]

Last match of the season but I've just been looking for some info that they will care and Pittsburgh need a win to have a chance of finishing 2nd. LCS 0-0 @ 7.0

[Richard Latimer]

So bank is back to £192.24 and profit for the month is now back as a healthy +£40.97.

A good end to the month tomorrow and I can eclips the loss of last month on top of the £29.00 made in Aug. Things are heading in the right direction and the important thing is I'm recognising what I need to do to cut out the hiccups.

It's a question of when you try to rush things too much and shirk some of the work which can make a difference you end up standing still far more than you do going forward.

Putting a pause on not just leagues but clear outliers BEFORE they could hurt me is something I should have done last month when the wheels threatened to come off.......but better late than never.

Anyone who's been following this knows that in my current situation I've set aside £5.00 investment money each and every week. I can't afford to save a lot but any little additions to the pot while stakes are small will only help me get where I need to be quicker.

When that investment isn't going to increase the bank to a new high I roll it over to the next week. With that in mind, in the right circumstances and only the right circumstances, £10 is due this week.

Well the circumstances are right. £10.00 investment pushes me to a neew bank high of £202.24. The stakes will increase in accordance with daily compounding and keeping percentages the same. Stakes will never increase due to a 'winning run' and beyond the percentages set in stone by my written rules.

Stake will NOT reduce unless bank taken back to £131.46 as this is a 35% loss.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Sweden on hold for time being. That one's a mistake. 10 selections but within that a loss.

I posted in the football thread about Norway, nearing the end of the season, Sweden is in a similar position, as would most Summer LEagues - MLS has virtually finished before they start the play offs. Could this be a factor in leagues such as Sweden etc in your data set?

Yes and no. States continues to be amazing. The only exceptions have been outliers. Numbers in the data that don't happen anywhere near enough to try and find a solution.

There was another goal in the Hacken game today so the league continues to head in the right direction. In the past I would have carried on with until the league was in the red. This is mere caution and it's already paying dividends. I fully expeect to be able to bring that league back in a while but I'm not taking any chances!

Also, Sweden has provided only 11 selections across the whole season so it's been ok but not prolific by any stretch of the imagination.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Sweden on hold for time being. That one's a mistake. 10 selections but within that a loss.

I posted in the football thread about Norway, nearing the end of the season, Sweden is in a similar position, as would most Summer LEagues - MLS has virtually finished before they start the play offs. Could this be a factor in leagues such as Sweden etc in your data set?

[Richard Latimer]

6/6 +£13.08 full update to follow

[Richard Latimer]

Sweden on hold for time being. That one's a mistake. 10 selections but within that a loss.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing qualifying yet today although have certainly missed a potentiall expensive loser which until recently would have been a play. 1-0 Halden.

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Morning Richard, I know you record and use odds a lot for your stuff. Do you get the odds post game at all? If so is there a pace you get those? just looking at it for something I'm testing and need to see if I have to be recording odds for each game as it kicks off.

Cheers in advance

Yes absolutely. It's what I rely on. Oddsportal.com

You can get both average book price, specific bookies and also exchange prices.

Thanks Richard, I'll check it out

[Richard Latimer]

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Morning Richard, I know you record and use odds a lot for your stuff. Do you get the odds post game at all? If so is there a pace you get those? just looking at it for something I'm testing and need to see if I have to be recording odds for each game as it kicks off.

Cheers in advance

Yes absolutely. It's what I rely on. Oddsportal.com

You can get both average book price, specific bookies and also exchange prices.

[Matt Wood]

Morning Richard, I know you record and use odds a lot for your stuff. Do you get the odds post game at all? If so is there a pace you get those? just looking at it for something I'm testing and need to see if I have to be recording odds for each game as it kicks off.

Cheers in advance

[Richard Latimer]

Updated results. Volendam was in outlier territory so not taken. Same with Start although both won.

Hoffenheim was in outlier territory and lost. A good start to the plan.

[Richard Latimer]

3/3 +£6.54 and 1 loser avoided in Hoffenheim

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

For Friday:

The leagues I have complete and utter faith in with relation to number of selections so far and win/loss ratio.

Also in red listed with criteria is the limit for certain criteria I will take. I've basically left 10 selections aside from the qualifying figure so I can stop blaming outliers when they happen and prepare for the possibility.

As the days, weeks, months and ultimately years go by, they will either become a fixture of be excluded on the basis that as soon as few more selections happened at these ends of the scale the they brought with them losses.

The difference now is that with those potential losses on paper they will no longer bring losses to the actual bank.

I am basically as prepared and ready to do battle as I could be!

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Richard, why don’t you get one months membership of football bet data? It’s about £8 and you could back test this in a couple of days. Save yourself a lot of time and work to be fair.

How would I backtest according to ave book prices for overs?

[John Folan]

Richard, why don’t you get one months membership of football bet data? It’s about £8 and you could back test this in a couple of days. Save yourself a lot of time and work to be fair.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

I am going to hit Royal Pari if it stays like this however. LCS 1-0 in that one.

Easy win that one for a change and also good for the data as another win in Italy.

I just have to start seeing the big picture. Standing aside for a few when so many are proven anyway really shouldn't be the end of the world.

And it won't be long before more follow suit and can also be seen as proven.

[Richard Latimer]

I am going to hit Royal Pari if it stays like this however. LCS 1-0 in that one.

[Richard Latimer]

Going to start the way I mean to carry on. As much as I believe there is another goal coming in Napoli, the home odds are quite low. I recently upped the limit to 1.22 but that means I only have a couple of good selections at this price point. If I want to start being more rsik averse then I have to let this one go until it is no longer an outlier.