Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 2.5 Waldorf @ 4.9
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.742-1
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Lay under 2.5 Waldorf @ 4.9
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.74Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The Kakonnen is operating at about 7pts profit from 33 selections
Norwegian lower leagues operating at about 3.3pts from 22 selections
Ger Regional liga leagues around 14pts from 17 selectionsNo reason not to use these leagues when liquidity is there.
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Here is the revised table:
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@Lee-woodman in terms of looking at leagues with only 20 selelections, for the next year this would absolutely butcher the system but I do certainly take your point. It's evident from looking at each league there are some operating in grey areas. Scottish lower for example.
I think certainly 10 selections and perhaps even 5 in some case gives me an idea of how these leagues are going. Important to note that even with 20 selections, a couple of losers which can happen anywhere at any time could put the league back to square one until it has a few years behind it. I don't expect this to happen in the vast majority though.
Other thing is you have leagues like Denmark which most people trade and it's fair to say these haven't proven themselves at all yet.
Also, these prices are worst case scenarios. In some leagues where profit it good it may be even better and in most where profit is so so or down it could again be much better. Working things out to ave book prices on the SHG gives me a decent idea but that's all it is. Betfair lay price will almost always be better than this.
It may be surprising to some but where there is liquidity in Estonia the current success in that league tells me to keep going. I've always hated the Estonian leagues. I can say it now though, my past systems weren't good enough and just scrapping a bunch of leagues for one that were doing well was often my only answeer. It's quite telling that in this the big leagues are flying. I've NEVER HAD THAT BEFORE EVER!!!!
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Done that now. Biggest beneficiaries were Iceland, Italy Serie A (which now looks even better), Kakkonen and Ger Regionalliga Sudwest (one group a few points worse but one a whole lot better and when you're looking at these leagues I think you need to group them together. To trade one and not another would make no sense as they are on the same level for the country. Same could be said of Norwegian lower leagues.
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As I alluded to last night, there is a simple tweak I can make to the 0-0 scoreline which I'm going to do. It was discussed recently that where things like this are concerned you should just look at the data where you're thinking of tweaking and ask would I do this standalone. The answer is no.
On the data I've analysed it was quite obvious that 0-0 while still making money was definitely the worst performer not necessarily on s/r or numbers of qualifiers but on the ave price losing odds.
I wanted to get to the bottom of this so went looking at just the lower odds to see what materialised. When ave book price for the SHG is under 1.1 the 13 qualifiers it brings up have a 100% success rate. When you then look at just 1.1-.1.12 it adds another 22 selections but with a massive 5 losses. The total for 0-0 is only 10 so half of those losses come at lower odds then I would want.
It also makes it pretty damn easy to exclude anything 1.12 down and bring the s/r and odds rocketing up!
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Ok so I don't know if anyone has taken a look at the figures I put up last night for individual leagues on both the SHG & FHG but now I have a bit of time I can address some things.
Firstly, as you can see, while I have a total of over 100 FHG qualifiers ticking along very well it's incredibly hard to get too much of a league sample at present. These are very spread out and have a very strict/limited criteria.
There are a few leagues in the red but with a maximum of only one loss. Just a question of not having much qualify in each yet. Also, the same rules of shitty leagues doesn't seem to apply fully here.
Chile, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ukraine, Vietnam...all successful so far. Of course it only takes one in each to flip that but the system as a whole is working well.
For the bottom feeding leagues it's quite normal to see 1 or 2 FHG and then both teams play out a dud second half so this doesn't actually surprise me.
Moving on.....
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 2.5 Mainz II
Goals galore in that second half so a win to get baack on track. Odds were 5.9.
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Lay under 2.5 Mainz II
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Just throwing these out before bed:
Regionalliga Sudwest has had 10 selections with 9/10 winners. The loser was towards the heavier side but I believe this is one of those 0-0 potential changes I mentioned that I'lll go into more.
Kakkonen Groub B is without loss from 9 and the Irish only has one selection but a winner.
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Waaahhhhh what a fun evenign that was. This was only supposed to take a couple of hours but as it is I've spent all night doing it!! Worth it though and I did notice something which not oonly cuts down selections on 0-0 but increases both profit and s/r.
If it was earlier I'd be going into this and all my findings/thoughts.
But it isn't. I'm bloody tired and so I'll just leave this here tonight and come back to it tomorrow!
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Only potential today is not inplay. A good time to get my league analysis done which I've already started.
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@lee-woodman I think I'll go through the leagues again tonight and post up some numbers for the qualifiers.
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@lee-woodman in terms of liquidity I mostly have. Yes some would be no good Inna few years but until the bank has multiplied 10 fold the money I'm seeing available is plenty in lower Norwegian leagues for example.
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@richard-latimer If i were you i would firstly remove all games that you know from experience have bad liquidity, because once stakes increase you will need to cut them out anyway. Plus they are unreliable. Obviously everyones list will vary slightly but most people who did this would have a list that looks 90% the same as everyone else. Then secondly i would only include those leagues with over say 20 games AND are profitable. Leagues can then be added once they prove themselves, rather than poor leagues dragging the results down until they are deemed so crap they are removed. I think this would be a game changer, you just have to have the idea of 'less but better'
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As for Honduras I'm not even going to record these games anymore as liqudity really is p**s poor on them!
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At the end of each month I'll go through all the data quickly to see whether any criteria can be relaxed or anything done in general to improve things.
Alot of the numbers have very broad ranges actually and FHG seems to suffer badly if going out of these ranges more than any of the others so most things staying the same.
Where I can improve slightly is by upping my max home odds on 1-0 score to 1.74 and removing Chile completely. It saves me trusting them only to come empty again saying well I won't do that again haha!
So I've re-jigged the p/l based on averages and I think I must have been tired last time as some of the figures didn't add up. They're still very good, just not as insane as I had them in some cases haha!!
That said, I work out for all scorelines I'm currently trading it should be +507.78pts profit to level stakes since mid Dec last year.
There is a very real possibility it would be more as this is based on the losers lay price being same as average book price for overs. The lay price is less the vast majority of the time.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 1.5 Cottbus @ 7.6
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.29Win to finish the day off. Around £11.00 loss today but I'll update exactly later.
As of last night bank was £155.05. At the end of today it is £143.93 so -£11.12 which is still less than the loss on 1/8 and also less in terms of bank percentage as bank has grown.
It will take more than likely 7 good trades to get back out in front and raise the bank again which is perfectly doable. I will still be adding £5.00 on Friday unless that £5.00 does nothing to raise the bank to new stakes. In this case I would simply add £10.00 the week after instead.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@chris-osborne That was the 10th selection in that league Inc. FHG and the first loss so it's not a league I'm concerned about and the liquidity is ok most of the time.
Even if traded volume isn't huge the amounts available are plenty for a good while yet.
Also 18 selections in the other Norwegian lower league with only 2 losses there. Good thing is one of those wasn't inplay on betfair so swings and roundabouts I guess.
