Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer you’ve done a lot of trades so your SR must be pretty accurate. You could look on today as getting your losses out the way and you’ll get on a winning streak next week. If it’s below the average now, and there’s no notable changes then it’s safe to assume the variance will go the other way and you’ll win more than expected.
Without doubt but there are some leagues with either not enough data or potentially dodgy. Slovakia and Kazaks conform to this.
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@richard-latimer you’ve done a lot of trades so your SR must be pretty accurate. You could look on today as getting your losses out the way and you’ll get on a winning streak next week. If it’s below the average now, and there’s no notable changes then it’s safe to assume the variance will go the other way and you’ll win more than expected.
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I'm one loss away from re-valculating stake downwards. Did not see this coming.
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There it is. Another blank in Mechelen. Think fans being in the stadiums is working the opposite for me haha! What a day!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer When you look at today/ the week do the results sit in line with your SR? When you hitting winning runs it’s easy to forget about the inevitable losses. We all know they have to come at some point, was it a poor day or just variance kicking in?
Not really. Worst day was 4 losses. Happened once since Dec. Going to be 5 here.
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Looks like I'm heading for a 5th loss here. Can't buy a SHG today!
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@richard-latimer When you look at today/ the week do the results sit in line with your SR? When you hitting winning runs it’s easy to forget about the inevitable losses. We all know they have to come at some point, was it a poor day or just variance kicking in?
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Pig's ear of a day here but with losses in Kazak, Bundesliga 2, Ger Regionalliga and Slovakia I think it's time to pay more attention to individual leagues.
Kazak had been ok up until today and it's only 1 loss but time to monitor until the league gets back in the green.
Still think Regionalliga ok and despite this loss p/l still looks ok. Was only the 2nd 2-1 loss in well over 50 matches.
Bundesliga 2 has been ok also and that was influenced by VAR.
Slovakia another to monitor until back in the green.
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Lay under 2.5 Oostende @ 5.6
Currently 2-0 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 1.5 QPR @ 5.8
Currently 1-1
Stake £1.97 -
No more talking....
Lay under 2.5 Raufoss @ 6.6
Currently 2-0 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 1.5 Steinbach @ 5.2
Currently 1-0 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 3.5 Saarbrucken @ 5.3
Currently 2-1 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 1.5 Slutsk @ 5.7
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.97 -
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 0.5 FH FC Astana @ 4.0
Current ave book price for home team 1.31
Current ave price for FHG 1.29
All stats on filter qualifyStake £1.97
That was quick. Me likey
Same game. It's 2-1 HT.
Already established home team priced @ 1.31
This is ave price for SHG
My window for 2-1 HT is 1.06+ so qualifies there.
Again all stats from filter qualify for this scoreline so it's a go.
Laying under 3.5 @ 6.2 which is 1.19. 2 ticks better than average book price.
Only the 2nd loss in 58 matches with 2-1 score @ HT. It was bound to happen at some point. Today was the day!
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Lay under 2.5 Fortuna Dusseldorf @ 5.6
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.97 -
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 0.5 FH FC Astana @ 4.0
Current ave book price for home team 1.31
Current ave price for FHG 1.29
All stats on filter qualifyStake £1.97
That was quick. Me likey
Same game. It's 2-1 HT.
Already established home team priced @ 1.31
This is ave price for SHGMy window for 2-1 HT is 1.06+ so qualifies there.
Again all stats from filter qualify for this scoreline so it's a go.
Laying under 3.5 @ 6.2 which is 1.19. 2 ticks better than average book price.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Just had to remove a whole host of games without markets today. Betfair streamlining for the winter leagues it seems.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 0.5 FH FC Astana @ 4.0
Current ave book price for home team 1.31
Current ave price for FHG 1.29
All stats on filter qualifyStake £1.97
That was quick. Me likey
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Was getting ready to lay a couple of games in Estonia but no market.
