Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
-
Still updating after what was an interesting if slightly frustrating day.
Meantime I'm laying under 3.5 in both Pittsburgh Riverhounds and New England Revolution.
-
Almost forgot, staking has gone up a penny
-
-
FHG
SHG
+£1.09
small steps
-
Wasn't going to add £5 this week on account of adding £10 last but really what can £5 get me??? Not even a beer. It serves a far better purpose propping me up on something I still retain 100% confidence in.
No more back to the drawing board. This is my drawing board and I'm working on a Picasso haha!
Bank £118.50 starting today.
Stakes revised as £1.33 between 3.55 & 7.4, £0.98 7.6 - 11.0.
3.5 and below just doesn't ever happen.
-
-
-£15.77
On the bright side.....I get to try and build it up again and hopefully this time build it higher.
Revised stakes for tomorrow as per:
-
I think a few people had a bad one tonight and I'm no exception. No regrets and I'd do those same 3 trades again tomorrow. Just seemed like heavy favourites stopped playing after HT.
To complete the new found discipline I'm at the stage where I need to revise stakes downwards. Never done it before. In the past I'd always find some excuse not to.
-
-
+£5.29
-
@richard-latimer yes, as soon as the summer leagues restart next year ill take another look and hopefully ill be seeing you have something thats making you bank consistently. This strat will take time to build thats all im saying, once you have the league data solid this will start to perform. I just dont think this is ready to trade yet. However, despite me biting your head off of late i do really wish you good luck bud. Its from a good place, im the same with everyone on here, im consistent at that. I just want everyone to succeed as trading offers so many benefits that i think everyone can achieve. Drop me a message whenever you need
Last post this time honest, keep adding more as per 
-
Appreciate that @Darri. I know I'm frustrating haha! How about I come and get you when it's starting to work.
-
@richard-latimer ok mate, do what you please. Everyone is giving you advice and every time your defending yourself, this isnt to your last post but its just overall answers for everything. You did this on the lay the underdog strat and the multi angle one recently. Im not a kiss ass and im a pest i know, im just seeing potential from someone who likes to be involved in this forum that it would be more beneficial if you were raking in the profit. Both of those strats i raised concerns about even when it was on form, got slated on the football thread by going against it. You have since dropped because they didnt perform long term. You dont listen. Its why you have been at this for years and still not found anything that works. People have come onto this forum and outgrown you in quicker time (me being one of them) they are the ones giving you advice now. You said trading has been a strain on your personal life too. Your so narrow focussed on your way of trading that still hasnt worked and yet people keep telling you how to make profit. Its frustrating to read, cause we want you to do well. This strategy will only start to be consistent when all leagues have enough data, the odds are needing you to be so tight on what works and doesnt, not the way your doing it which is as you go. Im not going to question how your finding games, we are clearly not the same in approach, but thats trading everyone is different. But there are key principles that every single consistent trader who has given you advice last 3 months, you have just ignored them. In those 3 months you could have made profit. Im unfollowing the blog as it frustrating me a bit now that i cant help, i cant offer you any value. I get your determined. This will eventually work, how long that takes with your approach i dont know. The advice offered is all great advice, from traders of all different strategies, who can see the mistakes your making, all collectively saying the same things. I dont understand why you cant see that. Would you honestly in our shoes not be trying to help this person? Imagine this was one of your mates showing you this, something they have been at for years and not working, its affecting their personal life and financially, if you knew some advice to give youd give them it. I can just see years of more of the same from you and that worries me because i like seeing you around here and would love to see you posting a great strategy. That then helps both financially and personally for you. Thats why we are all giving advice, there is really no benefit for anyone to be doing so, only to help you. Good luck on the journey mate. Im always up for talking on the forum or messages if you need
-
@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
I think your always thinking too erratically and emotionally about losses. Yes variance happens and its damn hard to time, i think this is what your meaning. Leagues that go on big runs will have a drop back at some stage. Its the leagues that are your biggest data necessity. Your strategy has such a small edge not from data but in terms of odds. The odds you are on require a very good strike rate. A drop off of anything between 5-10% from that break even point at your odds is staggering to the bank. You cannot always be on the good side of variance. This is the reason your having to react to almost every loss in terms of data. You have 1000+ selections but all spread out to so many leagues is soo diluted to come to any conclusions. Be different if that was spread to say 30 or less leagues. I also dont understand the logic behind what you quoted. Having more data on leagues will always be safer than less, the less you have the riskier they are.
i said large averages, not more data. More data is always good.
A team with a really high average is potentially riding the crest of a wave and about to return to the mean. I've seen it constantly.
I'm not geetting rid of anything forever. I'm taking things out of the firing line when it is logical to do so.
-
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
I think your always thinking too erratically and emotionally about losses. Yes variance happens and its damn hard to time, i think this is what your meaning. Leagues that go on big runs will have a drop back at some stage. Its the leagues that are your biggest data necessity. Your strategy has such a small edge not from data but in terms of odds. The odds you are on require a very good strike rate. A drop off of anything between 5-10% from that break even point at your odds is staggering to the bank. You cannot always be on the good side of variance. This is the reason your having to react to almost every loss in terms of data. You have 1000+ selections but all spread out to so many leagues is soo diluted to come to any conclusions. Be different if that was spread to say 30 or less leagues. I also dont understand the logic behind what you quoted. Having more data on leagues will always be safer than less, the less you have the riskier they are.
-
-
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
La
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
Large averages. We've discussed it before. A return to the mean. It's just difficult to remove them until I've seen firsthand so for a little while I end up with more surprises shall we say.
-
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
-
-£6.82
Keep the talking to a minimum but I'll have to explaiin something or the winning table above won't make sense. I'm nothing if not honest.
Last trade of the day was Atalanta @ 2-1 HT. Laid 7.4 and it lost. While this was the first 2-1 HT loss I've got on the spreadsheet of profitable leagues at present it was also easy to see how the game was an outlier in terms of statistics. When outliers show themselves to be unprofitable in the first instance I remove them to the tracking bin. They probably never get back what with being an outlier.
Game had Home SH ave scored for home team of 1.8. Only the 2nd time it's happened. First was a win in Serbia now this. 50/50 split and easily removed going forward as untrustworthy.
It's not an unusual I thing. In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones. I have no problem accepting losses where there is no discernible way to see what could be done better. This isn't one of those cases.
As an aside, there were 2 succesful FHG, one in Swiss and the other Bolivia. No data for Swiss yet so left it out. Bolivian data not good enough so I left that out too.
-
Not touching FHG in Bolivia.
