Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
One for tonight. LCS Chesterfield 2-0 HT @ 5.0
This isn't an outlier at all and I'm happy with the league/odds so easy decision. Will carry on updating Sunday tonight.
Mini recovery underway. 2-1.
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One for tonight. LCS Chesterfield 2-0 HT @ 5.0
This isn't an outlier at all and I'm happy with the league/odds so easy decision. Will carry on updating Sunday tonight.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I'm up to 13:15 on the update. Just about to reach the bit where things went south haha!
Will defintely get it finished tomorrow.
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Ok full update for Saturday:
As previously stated I went 7/9 (-£6.34) with 2 losses as shown above although at one of these was Leverkusen v Bochum. At the time I didn't consider a Mlada a qualifier but after a bit of error correcting on my sheet it definitely was. Not only was it a loss it was an unexplainable one if I am to consider this league a good one which I still do.
As I was deleting the notification of this game I got a score update of 1-1 but I guess it was corrected and no mention of any disallowed goals anywhere.
Leverkusen v Bochum I noticed after the fact that HT scorelines of 1-0 where only the away team were in a different league (promoted) had brought about 2 losses from only a handful of games and removing it at this time seems prudent. With that in mind I swapped one loss for another with minimal difference I would imagine.
Union Berlin had odds of 4.2, the league is good and the stats are good. Would play again without hesitation.
Fact is no matter what, Saturday held a couple of losses for me this weekend and they look pretty unavoidable.
There were 16 winning trades for the system and of the ones I didn't get most were what I would consider to be small outliers hence the look to find a better balance:
Hamburger - Won - Small outlier on one or more criteria
Hallescher - Won - Small outlier
Ranheim - Won - Small outlier (Norway Obos - most profitable league)
Aalesunds - Won - Small outlier (Obos again)
Malmo - Not completely happy with Alsvenskan yet but won so a step in the right direction
Stuttgart II - Won - Small outlier
Paris St G - Won - Was an outlier but would now consider to be in the mix
Viking - ALMOST qualified on the basis one of the criteria was out slightly but not to a number which has seen losses. Would now be considered an outlier as it won.
Ujpest - Won - Small outlierSaturday could have been much better regardless of the 2 losses which is a shame. However if the same issues would have carried into Sunday then this would have just resulted in a bigger loss that day.
I've not even started updating Sunday yet but it's going to take some time. The recovery bounce can't begin yet either as seems like there is bugger all on midweek that qualifies as a potential. Unfortunately with the interlull there were only really 3 weeks to make this month pay and so now there's one left to make it a green month.
STUPID INTERLULL!!
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@darri I will be posting it all I assure you.
I do love your dentist analogy though. Almost spat my food out at the thought of letting a dentist learn his trade on the fly haha!!
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@richard-latimer the issue with how you are trading and tweaking this on the fly was always going to have these bumps. Im not saying its not possible for it to work but its certainly not optimal. What your doing is kind of like asking a dentist to perform root canal when all they have is books, eventually they will get it right but its big risk in between. Having data that is proven to be working is the best way to be trading. Yours is still developing and each tweak closer but also at same time when do you and dont you tweak. Thats why you should do the tracking first before real money trades.
How bad was the weekend in terms of bank decrease? Its good when you get on a run and get to post bank updates but i feel its even better for you to show and be honest what the bank decreases are when they happen. They make you more focussed to not want to post them again. Regardless of how big or small. People are quick to say this is going really well, but the proof is in the long term results. Youll get there eventually
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Post these now in case I forget:
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Final game is not one being updated by sofascore so that's out. Last time I did one of those I got burned. What's becoming apparent is that while making allowances for outliers is sensible I've maybe gone too far the other way.
Saturday was always going to have a couple of losses but when I look at the winning trades not taken it seems a bit silly. Need to find a balance. Almost finished Sat update so will post tomorrow before moving on to Sunday.
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One more potential and it's fair to say it's not been a good weekend. That said, it could have been worse and I expect road bumps to continue for a while yet.
Plenty of winning trades I didn't take as they were on the side of the outlier. And a couple I can look back on and go, damn how didn't I see that!???
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I've just noticed that Bodo Glimt is being held in a Winter Wonderland that would be better suited for ice skating. Oh well.
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LCS Lafnitz 1-1 HT @ 5.5
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Spent a fair bit of time on the sheet tonight not updating but ensuring all my criteria is correct and that I'm not missing anything. This seems a real ballache at the time but the hours I spend on it now ultimately shorten the amount of time I have to spend on it going forward.
Just marking certain things out to look for in future etc...
Anyway, it's done now and I'll start updating Saturday when I get up. Also post up Sundays.
Lafnitz a potential in case I'm up late however.
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A small loss today but learned a little more.
7/9. Update to follow at some stage but it will take a while
Bank down by around £6
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The rest of:
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With that in mind Genclerbirligi would normally be a play at HT 0-1 but I'm leaving it for now.
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Bochum is a loss but more than that I think I've found something else I need to be paying closer attention to. I've long since included games where home team relegated or away team promoted and while I don't want to change that as it seems successful for the most part......perhaps some scorelines aren't compatible with this line of thinking.
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On top of that. LCS Bromley 1-1 HT @ 5.0
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Just remembered Allsvenskan still being tracked so leaving that one regardless of HT score
