Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Lay under 1.5:
New stakes:
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So today finally saw the lucky escape I had in ditching those less than 3+ average goals as a 30pt profit over 2 months which had been steadily eroding the last few weeks was finally wiped out.
It was around 30pts from 60 trades and it's now -3 from 90 trades.
Shows the common sense in not basing any decisions over one good month!
The 3+ continue to go from strength to strength. Less is more and from just over 120 trades is 92pts profit. This from 17 April as well so we've already had the back end of the winter leagues and almost a full program of summer leagues.
Currently 95% with ave lay odds of 5.65.
I'll keep tracking 2.95 for now and the idea will always be from now on.....can I open it out a little bit without destroying the core!!
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@richard-latimer said in Starting Again 01/08/22 - Current Bank £413.72 (time to stop dicking around and bounce this thing!):
Lay under 1.5:
New stakes today:
2/2 again with a late goal in Finland
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Lay under 1.5:
New stakes today:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@dan-mackinnon said in Starting Again 01/08/22 - Current Bank £413.72 (time to stop dicking around and bounce this thing!):
@richard-latimer plus it’s the big opener tomorrow that everyone wants to see! Clash of the titans. Big 6-pointer in the title race already. I am of course talking about…
The Marouane Chamakh derby!
:blue_circle:Decent game!
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Long long way to go but it's strange the initial indication when looking for games to go under 3.5 is similar to the way I find overs games to go.
The less goals scored by both teams doesn't necessarily mean it will continue. More that a return to the mean is coming!
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@richard-latimer plus it’s the big opener tomorrow that everyone wants to see! Clash of the titans. Big 6-pointer in the title race already. I am of course talking about…
The Marouane Chamakh derby!
:blue_circle: -
2/2 today, bank now £421.07, nothing for tomorrow but the winter leagues are getting there slowly.....or at least some of them!
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Stakes for tomorrow:
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For tomorrow. Lay under 1.5:
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Nothing today either. My fresh August start is having to wait a bit to get going/begin!
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Nothing for tomorrow as it goes
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Just realised I'd put £800.....this is a combined bank for me and the person I'm trading for. Mine was £400 this morning and a little bit higher today! £413.17.
Think I'll start my challenge again from tomorrow. New month, fresh start and absolutely no time for dicking around anymore!!
If anyone sees me dicking around please shout STOP DICKING AROUND FFS!!!
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £345.00 - Current Bank £403.22 (-£31.76 for June):
Fresh start. I've taken my bank back up to £800 with a £65.00 deposit and despite not having lost 35% I've reset stakes:
I may restart the challenge as well as it's getting a bit messy. I'd begun to give it all back anyway so it's no biggie! Lay under 1.5:
3/3 and a quick look at my extended list would have had another shitty day. Talk about engineering some bumps out of a flat road ffs!!!
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Stopped the rot and off to bed in a minute.
Having realised the folly of trying to get more out of the over 1.5 system I currently have it's time to see if I can make something from the under 3.5 market.
I won't be going live on it until I have plenty of data and there isn't even the slightest tweaking of data needed on the over 1.5 but no harm in tracking starting immediately.
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@John-Folan I was looking for the last bit of advice where you told me not to f**k it up
At least I recognised that's exactly what I was doing before it was too late!
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Fresh start. I've taken my bank back up to £800 with a £65.00 deposit and despite not having lost 35% I've reset stakes:
I may restart the challenge as well as it's getting a bit messy. I'd begun to give it all back anyway so it's no biggie! Lay under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Right, done.......this is certainly not a knee jerk reaction. Would have been earlier in the month although oddly it's one I would have benefitted from.
I'll open it out gradually should results dictate but never again with such reckless abandon!!
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I have tried to open it out to include matches under 3 goals average and last month it worked spectacularly. This month it has just been one long burn!! For a total of 26 trades I've amassed nothing from these.
I'll keep tracking them but even if they produce it's likely to be with a higher amount of variance.
Glad I've found out before the winter leagues start properly.
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If not exactly taking it back to the drawing board......as I can't do that........I'm going to have to pick and choose the best trades for a bit as some stuff is killing me right now!
Worst possible time too as I've just sold my house and need all the money I can get
