SH Goal Filters
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I know filters are very much out of fashion at the minute but i thought id do an update of the 2 filters im doing, The 2nd filter is doing really really well. Ive updated the figures into the original post and these are the changes ive made:
Filter 1:
Removed Norwary OBOS
Changed scope to 5 gamesFilter 2:
Removed both Norway leagues
Looked at Average scored by FT rather than home or away individuallyIts interesting aswell that the HT score seems to have no relevance to the figures, so whether its a draw, a one goal margin or the game is all but won then the figures stay roughly the same
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Noticed this as well Lee with your filter one. Think it's just going through a bad patch the last week. I was up over £200 from starting it at the end of September but this has basically been wiped out over the last week or so. Noticed as well that a few weeks ago it had a good variation of early goals and lates and this helped balance the books when the dreaded game with no sh goal came. Recently there has been a lot of early goals or none at all. All variance I suppose and sure it will even it's self out in the long run.
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@lee-woodman yes I noticed this. Happened to coincide with me starting to trade the filter!! Maybe blame me for some Sod’s law here
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Took a bad hit on the figures on the main filter this month. Just had a look at the figures and 80 out of 89 were from just 4 leagues (Japan, Sweden, USA and Norway) and none of the 4 leagues performed well at all across the board. Each league on its own fared badly both compared to the rest of the filters data as a whole and also compared to the same leagues previous averages so when all 4 drop off then the problem compounds itself. I think i just need to ride it out as so far it looks like bad variance, just made worse as its all come at once! The strange thing is that my 2nd filter has done really well, even on the same leagues!
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@martin-futter Yes it certainly does. Plus it’s a way of reducing the selections for the shortlist in a constructive way. I’ve not started getting selections from the winter leagues yet so need to keep the shortlist lower. Some criteria doesn’t make a difference to results and of the criteria which does matter it gets to a point where going higher doesn’t improve things
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Just been having a look at filter 2 as ive collected a few more games. One stat ive noticed an improvement in the SR is increasing 'Away Scored by FT %' from the base figure of 60% up to 70%. So for goals after 60' the figures are:
Away Scored by FT 60%: 150/192 (78.1%)
Away Scored by FT 70%: 135/169 (79.8%)
Away Scored by FT 80%: 97/120 (80.8%)Personally im looking only at games 70%+. Im also using this filter less systematically and using it to try to improve my in-play game reading and pre-match research. Its also more subjective to what is happening in-play, ie perceived value, motivation so i may enter earlier if i feel the goal is due or i may hang on longer if i feel a slower build up....or i may leave it altogether
Another figure im keeping an eye on is the ELO difference in favour of the away. It improves the figures quite a lot but not enough data. Im not sure of the exact reason and whether its just a correlation of data yet, i like to have a hypothesis AND stats to back up my theory. Maybe its because the base filter has a slight emphasis on the home team so add in the fact the away team are better makes it a really strong selection. Any thoughts would be appreciated!
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@gary-brown said in SH Goal Filters:
Hi Lee this maybe a silly question but on your filter do you record how many games have a goal after 60mins if a SHG was scored early (such as before 60mins when odds wouldnt of matched)?
Hi Gary, I do record that, the figure shown is for a SH goal after 60' regardless of what has already happened in that half. I have looked at it both ways, firstly whether the first SH goal has come after 60' and secondly whether theres a goal after 60' even if there has been a goal already and theres barely a difference, just obviously a lot less results in one way
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@gary-brown said in SH Goal Filters:
Hi Lee this maybe a silly question but on your filter do you record how many games have a goal after 60mins if a SHG was scored early (such as before 60mins when odds wouldnt of matched)?
got around 100 results testing these myself, early shg makes virtually no difference in my experience
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Hi Lee this maybe a silly question but on your filter do you record how many games have a goal after 60mins if a SHG was scored early (such as before 60mins when odds wouldnt of matched)?
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@ben-dobie If it becomes a criteria I add then I’ll definitely use that in, cheers
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@ben-dobie no worries mate, I selected as follows will check if it stacks up, might save you some time
Away ELO Rating >= opposition
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@ben-dobie To be honest I just export the elo figures into my spreadsheet, I haven’t added a criteria for the difference, just something I calculated in excel
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@lee-woodman hi mate, can you screenshot how you selected the ELO difference please, think I've got it right but want to make sure, want to try this on a filter of mine before I bin it
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
Bit of an update for filter 2, which has hit 150 games:
I decided to add some of the ratings criteria and have a look at some of the results. One that stands out for me is the ELO difference >= 0 in favour of the home team. Too early to do anything with, but very interesting nonetheless so will definitely monitor this!
Just realised an error with this, the improvement in figures was actually a positive ELO difference in favour of the AWAY team. Again its too early to do anything with as its only 80 games but its a big difference in results so will monitor.
Im not sure if the reason is because it ensures a more competitive game with the home team obviously motivated by being at home but the away team being supposedly better on paper. Anyway, ill keep an eye, will be interesting if it stacks up after a load more games
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@finn-kristensen good to know!
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@martin-futter said in SH Goal Filters:
@lee-woodman will keep an eye on that, I have leagues like Peru that I think could be gotten rid of long term, will check data
Agree - for my SHG filters, Peru really stands out in a negative way, but South America generally (actually, make that Latin America) seems to not be good for SHG trades.
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@martin-futter I agree. I want more data but as i run more filters and the data correlates more then im more convinced by it. Once i have a lot of data then i will probably stop looking at, and recording, certain leagues across all filters. Theres only so much i can record so removing it would make time for more productive work
