SH Goal Filters
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@lee-woodman interesting that you dont think it would have an impact. Home FT is quite broad. Your entering in games from a 2nd half perspective, so actually Home scored in H2 is actually a more relevant criteria than FT as that includes first half. Look its just an observation and an option, im not complaining about those results they are good, but just helping you target 0-1/1-0 which are your holes and my best performing scores, trying to find a good middle ground for both to marry up because when a game goes over 2.5 for mine they plummet so im thinking of my own tweaks outloud
. Ill go track and see if it helps if not you can ignore my option. I just think from my own experience that it could be a nice tweak. (opinion only no data to prove this yet) -
@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
@finn-kristensen said in SH Goal Filters:
What I will say, based on the analysis I did, is don't back HT scores of 1-5 or 4-2...
Yes, i agree with 1-5, although i had one 3 days ago and it had a 64th minute goal so dont rule it out just yet! Plus i imagine the price is really good
Yeah, if you can get like odds 10,000 you should be good.
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@darri said in SH Goal Filters:
@lee-woodman yep was just offering an option because you seem to be having mixed results on the low scoring games, i wouldnt do the away team to score criteria anyway just the home. Sometimes things are overkill for one thing but excellent for others. Yours seems to be excellent for high scoring games to have another but less on the lower. Remember only im only talking late goals as thats what interested me most on your data results you posted which are great.
Was only trying to offer an option for 0-1 scoreline to cover this as hole in the filter. What ill do is ill track it and report back what happens when you add that in. Your right taking the game inplay and watching stats is my preached way of doing it. But would be an interesting look as a pure filter only approach, because thats alot of potential green missing if 0-1 scorleine is out. Ill track it for a good data and report back. Is the filter 2 in the description at top of this page up to date? So i can copy it and just add that criteria in
The criteria i use for the filter is:
Overall Matches Played: >= 10
Overall Goals per match Average >= 3
Overall Goals per match H2 Average >= 1.7
Home FT O1.5 % >= 70 (probably a redundant criteria)
Home scored by FT % >= 80
Away Scored by FT% - Average of home and away of 80%, with home a minimum of 80%. So it could be 80 & 80, 90 & 70, 100 & 60Scope is set to 10 games, current season, no playoffs
Ive tried it without all elements (ie removing the away scored feature) and ive lowered the numbers and ultimately it just lowers the SR, increasing the numbers further doesnt improve anything
Adding home scored in H2 i dont think would add anything, the reason being that its rare for 2 teams to have an average of 3.0 without both teams scoring and its rare for a team to score a decent amount without a larger portion of their goals coming in the SH. Yes some would be shifted more towards FH or SH but i think it would be something that averaged out. I have pulled the scored in H2 stat into my sheet and it didnt make a difference, although i dont have it for every game and the numbers get diluted so low that data gets skewed due to one or two results
Maybe i just need to back 0-1 if its still that score at 70'
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@finn-kristensen said in SH Goal Filters:
What I will say, based on the analysis I did, is don't back HT scores of 1-5 or 4-2...
Yes, i agree with 1-5, although i had one 3 days ago and it had a 64th minute goal so dont rule it out just yet! Plus i imagine the price is really good
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What I will say, based on the analysis I did, is don't back HT scores of 1-5 or 4-2...
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I just made a quick analysis on all matches played July -Dec 2020 (9.367 included) in most of the pro leagues in the world. These are the results for matches with goals scored after 60, 70 and 80 minutes, based on HT scores:
I also made a quick check to see if it matters if the team leading 1-0/0-1 at HT is the kick-off favourite or not.
If the home team was the favourite, this is what I get:
Likewise, if the Away team was the favourite, these are the results:
Our filters clearly improve vs the average figures shown here as we are typically seeing 60 min.+ goals in 76% or more of the matches, so the above figures are just nice to know information, really. On average, though, 1-0/0-1 scores do not seem to be much worse or better than any other score for an in-play bet on goals to be scored at 60+ minutes.
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Im currently working on improving my own 1-0, 0-1 and taking into account the betfair favourite being the one 1 up and then avoiding it is giving me a 5% increase in strike rate at 70 mins+
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@lee-woodman yep was just offering an option because you seem to be having mixed results on the low scoring games, i wouldnt do the away team to score criteria anyway just the home. Sometimes things are overkill for one thing but excellent for others. Yours seems to be excellent for high scoring games to have another but less on the lower. Remember only im only talking late goals as thats what interested me most on your data results you posted which are great.
Was only trying to offer an option for 0-1 scoreline to cover this as hole in the filter. What ill do is ill track it and report back what happens when you add that in. Your right taking the game inplay and watching stats is my preached way of doing it. But would be an interesting look as a pure filter only approach, because thats alot of potential green missing if 0-1 scorleine is out. Ill track it for a good data and report back. Is the filter 2 in the description at top of this page up to date? So i can copy it and just add that criteria in
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@darri The O1.5 element was really my initial basis for narrowing down all games to slightly higher scoring games, i dont actually think it impacts the selections too much as ive now added tighter criteria which probably supersedes that. The 'home scored by FT' element does add an expectancy for the home team scoring, however, using the criteria of an average at 80% of 'home team scoring by FT' and 'away team scoring by FT' (with the home being minimum 80%) means that both teams are generally quite strong. If i feel that 0-1 is to be avoided then i dont necessarily need to fill the hole, i can simply avoid it as im happy enough to find a productive & positive way to reduce the selections. If you were looking for a home goal but the home team were doing nothing then its a way of saying stay out the trade, well the score being 0-1 could be a way of saying to me that the home team arent performing as expected. There are 241 other selections for 4.5 months so average a couple per day and thats plenty enough really for 1 filter.
You are right though, each filter looks for different things and understanding why that is and delving into each one on its own merits is important. I have another filter which is quite early on but uses 'home scored in H2' but also uses average goals so not too dissimilar to this one, maybe 1-2 unique selections each day
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@richard-latimer yep its all relative to the filter. You look at lees and its not setup for just 1 goal (ill try explain). So his filter is more likely to have better results with higher scoring games based on the criteria he sets out. But on the low scoring not have such great results. You see every stat on this filter is targetted towards a higher scoring game than a game that is currently tight. For me the 0-1/1-0 are my best scorelines for the past 2 years. With late goals (72min onwards) operating around 68% strike rate for just one more goal. Remember tho 0-1 scorleines tend to be worse odds so not totally impressive. But thats indicative of the fact my filter is setup around just one more in the SH. If i get a goal between 45-60 mins i tend to have bad results because my filter isnt setup for more than 1 in the SH. So it could be a big difference for me and you his will have different angles and stats.
If you look at the 0-1 scoreline and look at the filter they dont totally compliment each other. Reason : there isnt a criteria thats encouraging the home team scoring. While the home FT ov1.5 sounds like it does its not actually meaning the home team will score score its just a macro stat that allow the game to have more than 1.5 goals. To optimise the 0-1 id setup a criteria on a seperate filter and aim for Home scored in H2 to = 80. This would directly target games that are 0-1.
Obviously its not helping the current filter but to stop the rot on the 0-1/1-0 you could implement this criteria to get a better s/r on the 0-1 as right now there isnt a direct focus on that, and why your getting good results when the game is already a high scoring one.
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This post is deleted!
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So after looking at the HT scores i have done the same thing for the entry score (ie score at 60' for 60' figures and score at 70' for 70' figures). The figures in the top left is total so thats just a starting point for reference. This is the information for my filter 2:
Once again, 1-0 and 0-1 are a lot lower than the average, 0-1 in particular is just terrible!
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@finn-kristensen Thats actually something ive thought a bit about in the past - how many shots on target is 'right' although ive never given it much thought of how or whether to implement it for any purpose. Because you may have a figure of say 6 but if that team needs 20 on average to score then its not great, whereas if a team needs 3 on average then you'd rightly feel a goal is inevitable.
I do believe we do need to be thinking about stats and information in a different way to everyone else to try to see things differently in order to find these discrepancies in odds, but like you said it can be a long slog to test just one angle or just one piece of the puzzle! I find myself questioning my own and other peoples pre-conceptions all the time and it drives me crazy, although i think it helps!
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
@matt-wood I always had a niggle that i needed to record 'something' else regarding the sequence of scoring or the score later on in the game but wasnt sure what was best to record without being too time consuming. Score at 60' and 70' seems decent enough and quick enough to record going forward and i think its a key piece of data
I know what you mean, ive had that same 'niggle' for a while now too.
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
@matt-wood I always had a niggle that i needed to record 'something' else regarding the sequence of scoring or the score later on in the game but wasnt sure what was best to record without being too time consuming. Score at 60' and 70' seems decent enough and quick enough to record going forward and i think its a key piece of data
I totally get that. I am currently testing a system that includes all sorts of variables (no limits) and I also record goal timings, who scored first and more. Another one I test includes SOT by HT and I then use that to compare what the database says about SOT/goal which I then use to see if a goal should be coming based on this. I have no idea if it leads to anything, but I do know that it takes a lot of time to work with...It sure can be tedious work testing these systems.
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@matt-wood I always had a niggle that i needed to record 'something' else regarding the sequence of scoring or the score later on in the game but wasnt sure what was best to record without being too time consuming. Score at 60' and 70' seems decent enough and quick enough to record going forward and i think its a key piece of data
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
@richard-latimer Looks like a decent start for the filter. I would be conscious of reading too much into individual scorelines too early though, if you have only 100 results then some of the scores may only have 5-10 results which is too small a data set to draw much from. I am quite cautious of taking too much from scores where i only have 50 or so results, im just using the results to build a picture
You're right for sure and in the past I would have perhaps ruled out stuff too quickly..what I'm now doing is putting small stakes on the stuff that's coming through presently and collecting data on every single game. The smart filter helps immensely as I can just filter all sorts of stuff out and easily see the strike rate without.
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@matt-wood Yeah it can be a bit of bugger when you get a thought and then you cant check it out but you cant shake it off either! The more you learn about trading the less you know! So you dont know what you will need to know until you need to know it
Luckily i record goal times and first SH goal so i can get a lot of information from that. I also note the match ID so i can pull data from sheet to sheet. Ive managed to do a large portion of them in the last half hour so shouldnt take too long and i do think its worth it.
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@lee-woodman I am desperately trying to future proof my spreadsheets to prevent a situation like this. It feels soul destroying
probably worth it long term though. Wondering if I should do the same now too as only have around 700 games -
@richard-latimer said in SH Goal Filters:
@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
@richard-latimer Those figures are irrespective of what else has happened already in the half. I’ll look later whether it makes a difference and that might help some way towards my ‘information hole’ in that the HT score may not equal the entry score, however, every other time I’ve checked it’s not made a noticeable difference to the figures
It's weird because the stuff I'm looking at seems to make a massive difference.
I did have a quick check and it really doesnt seem to make much of a difference. But certain scores performed BETTER when there had been a SH goal already, such as 0-1, which again suggests score at time of entry could be far more important than HT score (makes sense i guess).
Now i just need to retrospectively add that information to 1000 games....
