Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread)
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Hi Guys
Been a BTC member for about a month and a half to two months as of this post. I’ve been fairy active on the forums and have learned an incredible amount since I started Betfair trading from scratch at some point in June!
I wanted to have my own thread in which to start positive conversations, record my thoughts and share my experiences. Despite a poor weekends trading this weekend just gone, I’m in a great headspace! I’m thoroughly enjoying trading and this weekend was no exception, I learned a lot and when I can get on my PC tomorrow I have so much to change on my filters and spreadsheets and stuff. I’ve also dropped some good habits regards pre-match research and such, so looking to pick this up again!
Anyway, this will start as a newbies post and I hope in future to share my trades/filters and strats when I have some, which will no doubt take a year to perfect! In the mean time, I’m going to try my hardest to rigidly stick to the email picks, stick to the plan and perform pre-match research to organically build my bank a bit. I do intend to invest further and have funds set aside, but I’m waiting until I’ve proved to myself I can look after it!
Look forward to speaking with you all!
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@daniel-cooper great to hear that, keep us updated! love the 10 day win streak, try to beat it!
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Hello Guys
I hope you are all well!
I made a big recovery for the end of September, and going in to October I went on a 10 day profitable streak which was very good for the morale. I have also started October profitably, although minimally so, and have upped my staking to reflect my bank size and some of the guidance given in one of Martins recent podcasts.
My discpline is better but still has a long way to go if I'm being honest. I really can't help myself at times when it comes to following other peoples tips. I'm very trusting, but as everyone says if you jump on other peoples tips occassionally you're bound to get their bad ones! I don't have figures, but whilst feeling like I do make a decent profit off some tips, I reckon I probably lose more overall - really need to stick to my own trades!
The two filters I created myself, which have both been in their refined phase 2 stage since mid September, should get to the 100 game mark by next weekend or so. I added a BTTS column in one of them out of curiosity. I could twist this around in to something else potentially. Additionally, my Lay Under 3.5 filter... when at 100+ results I'm going to assess how it would perform as a Lay U2.5 filter instead, as it may be more profitable!
Hit me up with any questions!
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@daniel-cooper well done, keep that mindset
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Checking in - only a small one!
Still tracking phase 2 of my 2 filters - will report back when I have at least 100 results!
Since my proper bad run in September AND blitzing my first ever bank (not proud but have learned a lot) and since practicing good habits, I have been profitable for the last 6 days! Chuffed. May only be pennies, but its green and thats what matters for now!
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@matt-wood said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
@daniel-cooper said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
@martin-futter yeah they’re a fantastic resource! Give it a few weeks and I will likely have cleared them all and be up to date!
I’m good at collecting data but manipulating it is another thing! Something I may have to look in to as a skill!
Agree with both of these statements 100%
Podcasts are fantastic, making my way through them all
The interpretation of collected data is the hard part. Like @Martin-Futter said it cannot be done just by a machine, it needs that human eye and brain to ask the correct questions of the data. This is where I fall down too.
Maybe @Martin-Futter could get some tips on data interrogation from a pro and do a little podcast on it? I for one would be hugely grateful for such a thing
@Daniel-Cooper hope the wrist heals up ok.
YES PLEASE, a podcast or any sort of advice and guidance on data manipulation would be amazing. Darri was close to this I think but still not quite in depth enough as to how he reached his changes maybe?
Thanks buddy! Getting there, probably 6 weeks off being back to normal!
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@daniel-cooper said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
@martin-futter yeah they’re a fantastic resource! Give it a few weeks and I will likely have cleared them all and be up to date!
I’m good at collecting data but manipulating it is another thing! Something I may have to look in to as a skill!
Agree with both of these statements 100%
Podcasts are fantastic, making my way through them all
The interpretation of collected data is the hard part. Like @Martin-Futter said it cannot be done just by a machine, it needs that human eye and brain to ask the correct questions of the data. This is where I fall down too.
Maybe @Martin-Futter could get some tips on data interrogation from a pro and do a little podcast on it? I for one would be hugely grateful for such a thing
@Daniel-Cooper hope the wrist heals up ok.
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@martin-futter yeah they’re a fantastic resource! Give it a few weeks and I will likely have cleared them all and be up to date!
I’m good at collecting data but manipulating it is another thing! Something I may have to look in to as a skill!
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@daniel-cooper great to hear this! glad you like the podcasts I am going to keep doing them more regularly (try and get at least one out a week) as they seem to be a big hit.
like the collecting of data, you cannot stress too much the importance of it. there is a reasons companies pay people like my sister a very good wage just to study data (it also shows that there is a much needed human element to it and it can't just be done by a PC!)
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Hello folks! Small check in from me, not much to share in the way of trading I suppose - got the second edition of my filters trundling along collecting further data - still not trading them just yet.
I have been interested in the podcasts but hadn't realised until yesterday they were available on the Apple Podcast app. Downloaded loads of them and listened to them whilst on walks. When I can drive again once recovered from my wrist opp will listen to them in the car too!
Some fantastic stuff in the BTC podcasts, really drives stuff home where reading the text wouldn't otherwise get the point across as thoroughly. Additionally, I feel that @Martin-Futter and I are actually really really similar in personality, so that was an interesting little thing to pick up!
Would definitely recommend them to everyone!
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@matt-wood The best thing i can say to do is to analyse all the data you can from your results and see what it shows you. For example, on my goals filter i looked at O2.5 and i looked at different times to cash-out if still 0-0. For me the sweet spot seemed to be HT; it wasnt often that a HT 0-0 in my games had O2.5 in the SH and when i looked at the odds it seemed disproportionate between probability and the cash-out
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@daniel-cooper Great stuff and very promising.
I have got two filters testing at the moment for O2.5 goals but after reading your posts I am starting to think about the U3.5 lay as the liability is very low in most cases pre KO.
I had the idea loosely in my head that if no goal in 1H, cash out at HT.
If 1 goal I was planning to let it run to around the 65th min as this is where I had noticed the O2.5 odds start to really go bad. Will have to watch and see what the lay U3.5 do around 65mins. I think they would be largely the same.
Will be following this with interest and once my filters have gathered at least 100 results I can share them to see how the data matches up if you like.
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So both my Lay U3.5 at KO filter and my Back U2.5 for first 15-20 mins filters are in their second phases and tracking. Early results are positive, more so on the first filter than the second, but this is fine as both data pools are TINY. They were so open before I had 100's of results between them!!! Feels nice to look at some tidy spreadsheets with only a few entries in!
I'm anticipating having to do a 3rd phase of adjustments to the Back U2.5 filter. Not trading either, but initial impressions for Lay U3.5 promising. If it continues, once I have a more significant data pool I will then start to analise individual games in more depth and record the odds changes and behaviour - entry odds are going to be extremely prevalent here and depending on what the market expects, I've seen anything from 1.3 up to 1.6, and some further outliers either side.
To comment briefly on how my initial guess at a strategy for the Lay U3.5 is developing based on what I have seen, in two of the most recent games, which had extremely high scores, there were 3 goals in the first half. The odds ROCKETED up for U3.5 obviously, and the trade out will have been something to behold, I suspect close to full payout??? BUT, despite in both those games there being a 4th goal very very late in to the SH, say, after 80 minutes, obviously the odds came in and in and in and in until this happened. They came in to the point they were below what they were when the 2nd goal went in, and so you would have been better off cashing out after the second goal than if you cashed out at 70 for example. As such, I'm envisaging if you get 3 goals in the first half its an instant trade out! I've had this idea in my head that 70 mins would be the stop loss for this, but thats still from my first guess at a strategy so this may evolve!
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@daniel-cooper Oh yes! If that's not motivation, what is?
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Also, today first day of new habits and behaving well, profitable by 2 and a half points!
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@matt-wood said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
Sorry to hear about family situation, fingers crossed all will sort itself out as best it can.
Some interesting things from your filters. Think I am having the same sort of 'what do I do' moments with refining/manipulation/reading of data as you are. Still its all a learning process
Thanks dude! I’m sure it will, will just take some time. These sorts of things are conducive to a healthy trading mindset either which is worth baring in mind!
Tell me about it! I stared at the first one for 3 hours haven’t had the time today so will do the U2.5 one tomorrow.
The one I refined yesterday (Lay U3.5) had another game today - had 3 goals in first half!!! Ideal, I know for version 2 of the filter only has a dataset of 2 games but what a start!
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Sorry to hear about family situation, fingers crossed all will sort itself out as best it can.
Some interesting things from your filters. Think I am having the same sort of 'what do I do' moments with refining/manipulation/reading of data as you are. Still its all a learning process
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@ryan-carruthers said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
@daniel-cooper On the second filter that sounds like one of the £10 a day trading strategies somebody had on here a while back which was very profitable for them - is that the goal here?
As in they made £10 a day or used £10 a day? Or neither? well, the original inspiration came from an Alex Ong video, so I then wanted to transfer that in to a strong filter for selection! I don’t have a view of how many selections its likely to be giving me in phase 2 so I will report back as to if its a very busy filter generally or I can really refine it!
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@martin-futter said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
@daniel-cooper Hi mate, sorry to hear some of this! Hope everything is ok.
It's good that you have such a positive attitude and you are right about just trading one sport at a time.
If I were you I would go back to testing and paper trading, still early and you don't want to be losing money while learning where possible!
Cheers Martin! I agree also, I may be tracking a few things but I don’t plan to trade very many!
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@daniel-cooper On the second filter that sounds like one of the £10 a day trading strategies somebody had on here a while back which was very profitable for them - is that the goal here?