Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread)
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@daniel-cooper Hi mate, sorry to hear some of this! Hope everything is ok.
It's good that you have such a positive attitude and you are right about just trading one sport at a time.
If I were you I would go back to testing and paper trading, still early and you don't want to be losing money while learning where possible!
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Hi Guys! I hope you are all well! First check in in 5 days, and a biggy. Its been a tremendous 2 weeks both in terms of trading and personal life! Theres been a crisis with my partners family, the repurcussions of which are taking quite the toll on anything and everything, but we're all holding on. In other news, mine and my partners first ever gecko arrived yesterday, so swings and roundabouts!
Trading wise, the last couple of weeks have been really terrible. Before I go on any further, I'm typing this very happy with myself, not panicking, not down in the dumps, so save your sympathy posts for the time being. It has been really bad, and started going down hill from when I really blew my bank last weekend! I never really recovered in terms of being strict on myself, all of my trades seemed to go poorly and it was almost like I had the feeling of my bank being tainted! Its not all gone but its nothing like what I originally invested. Still, I've not lost tonnes in the grand scheme as I've only ever managed a small bank, never invested more than my original amount, and have learned a tremendous amount the last 3 months. I feel the BTC membership is a great investment and whilst its all coming out of my pocket at the moment, it will pay back to me in future. So, summary, I've learned some fantastic lessons about sticking to the plan and having discipline first hand. I really really hope these stick with me because time and time again, diverting from the plan has cost green!
My adventures with Tennis have been short lived. I enjoyed it, and its a fantastic sport to trade, very interesting! However, I'm not consistent with it, Im only new at the end of the day and should really focus on as few things at a time as possible! I know this is what everyone has always said and has said time and time again, I think I had to flex a little outside this to learn from it and I have somewhat.
So, in terms of things I will stick with, these will be the Darri SHG filter as this is proven, tested and works really well. I will continue to track the Darri FHG project alongside Darri and the others on the Road To Full Time thread. I'm still tracking my own two filters, which will be covered in the next couple of paragraphs, and then I think I will continue to trade the email ELO's, but thats probably the only thing off the emails. I do always hop on Ryans Betgreens when they come through... should I really be trading anything off the email if I've identified in the paragraph above that I need to be cutting down my trading endeavours... its hard when theres so much good stuff on offer. I enjoy and have seen great results from the ELO's as well as Ryans Betgreen. Same goes for Darris SHG... I don't know, I guess I am still cutting down by now sticking just with football, also avoiding a few of the other email filters, anything posted in the forum... this will be ten times better than the random trading I have been doing, and the plan averting!
So, my two filters. Both are extremely extremely open (quite a few values set to >=0 for example). My most recent version of my intended Lay Over 3.5 Goals at KO filter reached about 225 results tonight. I spent 3 hours looking at it tonight, having spent a few hours at around 100 results and 175 results, adjusting it and refining it. I've struggled to be honest, I don't think my data manipulation is up to scratch. My method was to filter (purely with ascending or descending to get the range of results I actually want on one end of the pivot table) and then take averages of each column of data - average result of the well performing games and average result of the poor performing games and compare them. In a lot of circumstances on my Lay Over 3.5 Goals filter, I found that values were very similar between most columns. This was consistent across 100 results, 175 results and my 225 results, which was concerning and I couldn't think of other methods of manipulating! I found pivot tables a bit confusing. However, at 225 results there were 3 pieces of data for the home team that had much bigger differences between good performing games and bad, so I've included those in a more restricted second edition of the filter, along with adding an open filter for Home Score H1 % for data, and the only game it gave me tonight absolutely smashed! I didn't trade it as despite being a phase 2 filter, its still in the testing face, but I trust it a lot more and expect good results! I will report back when phase 2 has a good number of results.
Onto the other filter I am tracking, its designed to find games where goals aren't scored in the first 20 or so minutes. With extremely open criteria, 80% of games make it to 10 minutes 0-0, and then around 50-60% make it to 20 mins 0-0. This is with minimal restrictions, so when I get time tomorrow I will manipulate the data from the 150 or so results in there and try to refine the filters. The strategy in mind would be one where I would Back U2.5 goals, and as the odds come in slowly remove liabililty off the table (in case of an early goal) until we get to the 15min - 20 min mark when I green up. I have high hopes for it!
I typed this all up while doing other things over the last hour, so conscious it may be a bit all over the place, but any questions drop 'em here! As said early in the post, I've made some mistakes, blown a small stakes bank, learned from it I hope, and have learned so much outside of that from BTC that I am still very optimistic. Lets see what the rest of September brings us!
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@daniel-cooper said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
When I find the time tomorrow, plan on another big end of week check in!
interested in an update on your filters!
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@daniel-cooper Lovely
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When I find the time tomorrow, plan on another big end of week check in!
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@daniel-cooper Tennis is a great sport for people to trade I think its down to the variables as well. There is less choice on tennis it's player 1 v player 2, there is win or lose as well.
It's easier I have found to read in play as well because like football for example there is so many moving parts you've got 22 people who can impact the match on the pitch, then the managers, subs, crowd (not at the moment).
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@darri to be honest with you I'm not a sporty person! I played a lot of rugby but thats about it! I wouldn't describe myself as passionate about football or tennis, more than football seemed the easiest to get in to to start with!
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@daniel-cooper Its interesting about the tennis side of things. I have often found people who are passionate about football end up doing risks early doors. In tennis do you have a huge knowledge of it? because your passionate about football it can sometimes put emotions into a trade. Whereas with tennis its often more about price movement and then you dont care about said player etc. This would be a good thing for you going forward
Also once you get your own strategies this will start to take off for you mate, and then everything people have said in the past will click. Its one of them lightbulb moments which seem to be a big thing with trading as cringy as it sounds these do happen.
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@darri thanks for your kind words - its not put me off at all, if anything motivated me to be stricter and more rigid in my approach! I have overall massively cut down on my trading activity and variety which has served me well. Yes the transfer in to tennis is a new thing also, but its actually something I’m really glad I’ve found, its seems to be suiting me as a potential priority over football, at least while I have some filters cooking!
Speaking of which, must email you about that again, got a healthy dose of results to refine off of!
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@daniel-cooper whilst its never good to hear your lost your bank, the lessons learned are something every trader must go through and learn. The answers to your trading are all in what you just said. Your attempting to do too many things. New sports and new strategies. Stick to what was working and let that build your bank. Then paper trade the new things we shouldn't be putting our bank onto anything else. The biggest positive is you will have learnt the hard way like most of the pros and i actually think its the best way because now youll never want to lose that much again. Always here to help bud, please dont give up and i cant encourage you enough to stop doing venturing into other things this early. Paper trade these other things you like, see if its long term profitable then add it to your trading. Also stop using the word recovery, its only going to stay in your mind that your behind on a bank and will feel often lead you to take a few risks on the way to get it back, this is just as bad as chasing/fomo. Iv advised this before but wait to log back on here until you have a trade live, this will help you not jump on other peoples trades. Fomo is the killer of all new traders and until you find a way to stop that urge to jump on then its gonna keep cutting away at any potential you have. You were doing superb with the way you were picking quality over quantity and im 100% sure if you revert back to that you will do just fine mate. Its a blip but its not the end.
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Howdy folks! Check in for the first time this week and first time in a number of days! Been an interesting few days!
At some point on the weekend I obliterated my bank! This is the way things go with multiple things in life when it comes to self discipline, learning something new, also in things like therapy and recovery - these things are often some steps forward and some steps back! As long as you’re making more forward steps than backwards then you’re doing something right! I obliterated my bank after a good week or two of strong ish willpower and discipline when it comes to overtrading and sticking to the plan. I followed a trade that was shared on the forum, not on any of my plans anywhere, and whilst doing it MASSIVELY overstaked to recover the loss. It was bizarre, almost like an out of body experience! It just compounded and took about a 30% chunk of my bank away. Now, on the positive side I’m running a small stakes bank so its very recoverable and not going to end my life, BUT if I scale that up to a 10K bank then I would be pissed! Lesson learned and since then have stuck to my own trades!
I have been trading very little football as it happens! The odd ELO Dog Lay, some of the Darri SHG’s. Other than that, I have been dabbling in tennis trading since Saturday/Sunday and making a consistent profit. I’m thoroughly enjoying trading tennis, primarily using Martins Lay 1st Set Winner filter! Its going splendidly so far, but my approach isn’t repeatable or easily automated unfortunately, need to work on it.
Will report figures back in terms of points. I reckon I can still end the month positively now I’ve discovered tennis trading. In addition to all the above, I have 2 football filters of my own bubbling away and collecting data, one of which is well due a review and refine!
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Check in! Been a very quiet week! I think I made 1 trade since Sunday, not been much on! Spent a good amount of time staring very confused at my filter spreadsheets. Need to wait for a few more results but I think I'm going to struggle to recognise the patterns that will help me to refine my filter, need to see.
Call me a very bad trader, but I took my first stab at tennis this morning. Partly driven by the quietness of football. Definitely not considering a full adventure in to tennis, but I understand the principles and even if I was just to follow @Martin-Futter's Lay the First Set Winner strat, that would be relatively simple, I believe at first glance.
Successful trade on this front just now, found a game with relatively low odds, layed the first set winner who was also the marginal underdog I believe, said player then went 3-0 games ahead in to the first set, so I actually topped up the lay at odds 1.15. My cash out button had crashed at somepoint, so was consistently showing a -0.25 of a point loss regardless of what was happening in the game for ages! I let it run, but noticed at the point that the games were 4-4 in the second set. At this point I refreshed to be greeted with a lovely 2 points profit for 1 point liabililty.
I didn't strictly follow the strategy on this so would consider myself lucky, and won't get lulled in to a false sense of security in terms of diving straight in to tennis trading. However, following the One Sport, One Strategy idea that has bounced around the forums recently, I could potentially trade one strat football and one strat tennis? Food for thought.
Will paper trade and keep an eye on some tennis. Very excited for @Martin-Futter's filter to be added to the tennis stats.
My early doors Lay U3.5 Goals at K/O filter is giving me headaches lol!
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@martin-walker I know, it seems very short sighted doesn’t it, not sure what anyone can know from 3-4 results. The maths would tell you that kind of data sample is irrelevant to future performance.
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How many people pop up saying the email picks arent very good and you find out they have done 3 or 4 trades. They would feel different if they tracked 100 games first before trading them. The trust you build up in a strategy from either building from scratch or tracking first is priceless
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@daniel-cooper you have hit on something so important there, trust in a strategy. it's so much easier to trust a filter you have created and it makes a loss more bearable than on one you didn't create.
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Check in for today, weekend was interesting, overall in the red, and so was the month, but I feel absolutely fine about this as I have learned so much the past month/two months. Carrying those skills forward should see a positive September. Plan making, sticking to the plan, Darris PRE-INPLAY-PRICE too, all comes together hopefully.
I’m going to be trading less, tracking and refining my own strategies, sticking likely to Darri’s SHG filter. Theres nothing wrong with the email picks, but as I haven’t had a part to play in building or refining them, a lack of trust begins to form. I will be being very selective with my trade opportunities, especially on weekends
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@darri said in Sun Tzu’s The Art of Betfair Trading (Dan’s Trading Thread):
@daniel-cooper excellent two posts mate! The plans are working and your using two tried and tested strategies. Its really that simple even when you get to full time level mate. The only difference right now is honestly only the bank size. If you maintain this kind of pattern for rest of year i can see you putting that extra cash you said you had into it. Couple things to note. MY SHG filter for the purpose of tracking im only using 1% stakes/1 point stakes. I would say the strat works best with 2-3 but only do this once you have a comfortable ease of using it. Then onto the fact you deviated from the plan. I deviate sometimes but only on the games i have open. So example would be the sirius game. If it was an initial winning trade, and lets say the dog scored first i may re enter my profit back into the next goal but never risk more. However whilst still learning and for you to get used to trading the correct way i honestly would stick rigidly to the plans you place. The small wins might look silly just now but they dont when your bank grows plus they add up over 365 days. And you bang on about the forcing of trades. If the odds dont present value compared to what your average for that strategy is just leave it and move on. remember its you versus the market dont let the market dictate to you what price you should enter. Sometimes the so called dead cert games are just horrendous prices. Remember my model on the blog= PRE-INPLAY-PRICE
This is such a good point Darri, and if we go back to the Malmo game and exactly what you posted about on your thread, the odds were rubbish at usual entry time! I should have entered later for less/less splitting of stake etc etc. Was still a good trade I think, stats and motivation was there! Just didn’t pan out
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@daniel-cooper excellent two posts mate! The plans are working and your using two tried and tested strategies. Its really that simple even when you get to full time level mate. The only difference right now is honestly only the bank size. If you maintain this kind of pattern for rest of year i can see you putting that extra cash you said you had into it. Couple things to note. MY SHG filter for the purpose of tracking im only using 1% stakes/1 point stakes. I would say the strat works best with 2-3 but only do this once you have a comfortable ease of using it. Then onto the fact you deviated from the plan. I deviate sometimes but only on the games i have open. So example would be the sirius game. If it was an initial winning trade, and lets say the dog scored first i may re enter my profit back into the next goal but never risk more. However whilst still learning and for you to get used to trading the correct way i honestly would stick rigidly to the plans you place. The small wins might look silly just now but they dont when your bank grows plus they add up over 365 days. And you bang on about the forcing of trades. If the odds dont present value compared to what your average for that strategy is just leave it and move on. remember its you versus the market dont let the market dictate to you what price you should enter. Sometimes the so called dead cert games are just horrendous prices. Remember my model on the blog= PRE-INPLAY-PRICE
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Hello everyone! Half way through the second day of another bumper weekend.
Today started off well with 2 successful trades, both following the plan and sticking to the Lay the Dog strategy. More recently I have drifted from a nice green to a small red following a failed Late Goal trade and an unsuccessful dog trade. I stick by the Late Goal trade - Mjallby were drawing, key players were on the pitch and Mjallby were dominant and peppering the goal! it is unfortunate but the way it works sometimes. I think I could have maybe avoided the Dog trade as a key player or two were missing, more specifically I couldn't see one teams no.1 player. It was very very very small money as the odds were so short late in the game when the dog went ahead, so its not the end of the world, but still, I could have convinced myself not to enter it? I won't be trading late this evening and likely only to enter games starting at 4:30pm/5pm. There are a few SHG on the Darri filter and a couple more dog trades. A takeaway is that I really need to be believing in my research - yes I want the trade to qualify and yes I want it to succeed and I want the green, but I can't force it - if players are missing, steer clear.
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Howdy folks! Quick check in from me. Will do a brief update on Friday too as didn't manage to yesterday. I actually started typing this around 2pm, but I am working (from home) this whole weekend so doing trading where I can.
Friday: No trades, just had my eye on the one in the email. It panned out beautifully, easy win, that filter has an amazing strike rate! Only issue was extremely short odds, so I didn't enter. Will keep an eye on this filter though, if the strike rate stays up there it could be one for the daily email @Martin-Futter. Sorry I didn't reply to the daily email from the other day asking for feedback, didn't get round to it!
Today: Lots on the email for today. First thing this morning I did another big rejig of my own filters I am testing and tracking. Other than Darris SHG's there no trades I'm doing outside of the daily email. I am/was getting close with a few to the 100 games mark, but this morning refined them down to looking at the last 5 games rather than last 10, as well as only current season data - @Darri made some compelling points for these settings reflecting true current form, so I'm going to do it like this from now on and see how the filters perform. They're extremely open filters anyway at the moment and will need a few refining stages before being ready.
I've traded a little today, I got on the Lay The Dog of Shandong Luneng vs Dalian Pro this morning. Dalian, the dog, were dominant throughout which is something to note. They went 0-1 up at 62 minutes, so the odds for laying them were very nice; I entered at 1.74. I did verify that Shandong had all their key players on the pitch too. It didn't work out in the end and it finished 0-1 - maybe something to look at in terms of trusting my analysis of in play - would have felt more comfortable if Shandong had tried at some point! You live and you learn. Thats the only Lay the Dog that has qualified today.
I also entered Varbergs vs Sirius. This was on the plan as a SHG/Late goal trade. It was on the daily email but also Darri's SHG, so I followed the Darri strategy for a nice minimal green. It was my first entry, so 0.45 of a point. However, this was looking to be a high scoring game that many were trading, so I did decide to O1.5 split stake the game. This wasn't following the plan so I am two minds about it. It panned out very nicely, I entered at 30 mins and 50 mins, first goal came in at 67 minutes, just before the 70min stop loss. Cashing out here would have provided very minimal green, but green nonetheless. I usually allow these O1.5 splits to run a few minutes after incase you get that second goal and the full profit. Potentially as I was working too, I allowed it to run for the 4 mins it took for the 71st minute second goal to go in, giving me full profit on both entries. It panned out beautifully, but was I wrong to deviate from the plan? Something to definitely not make a habit of going forwards, but panned out today. I am doing extremely well with not chasing losses and not madly jumping on trades, this was the one off for the day.
Watching a few Late Goal trades for later, but not much! Have a lot of spreadsheet updating to do today, and hopefully after another week a second phase on some filters to report back on?