New (again) Member - Lee
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Great post Lee. Tough to admit when things go wrong or take a downturn but great that you have been able to so.
Understand what you mean totally with the personal pressure to succeed as I have caught myself doing this too often too. Fingers crossed you personal stuff sorts itself out. You shouldnt jack it in at all, some of the stuff you have put together on here is really great for everyone reading it and in itself is progress.
I think the bad teaches us more than the good, its just harder to see it as a lesson.
Great to have you back on here again
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@lee-woodman for what its worth the honesty of this kind of post is what makes this such a great place to be part of .. its invaluable for the likes of me, to understand all those emotions are normal, to have self doubt, to question everything and to get too absorbed by it so thank you genuinely thank you. As for you I know there are people here who will provide a great sounding board for you and hopefully for your own piece of mind, self belief then sharing it so openly will help you too. Thanks again.
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@lee-woodman Excellent post Lee was wandering the other day whether you'd stopped trading. Some of your posts have been thought provoking.
I can relate to what you we're saying about tracking every game etc something I've also cut back on. Just raised a similar post in my blog where I can trade a few tennis matches a day but football I want to get involved in far too much and translating my approach form tennis to football.
Good luck with scaling back, and hopefully it gets you what you want out of trading whilst not impacting your personal life.
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A bit of a humble post!
Ive personally struggled a little bit over the last couple of months with my trading. Results from strategies which were previously looking good took a dive and though i thought i was progressing i took it as something of a failure. Up to this point i think things were looking nice and rosy but it came as a bit of a smack on the chin! Even though id given myself up until summer (a year since i started back) to see if id progressed in trading (not to say ive made it, just to see if i had something worth continuing) id obviously gotten ahead of myself and took the bad results as something of a failure.
Ive had quite a lot of negative stuff going on personally which has put me all over the place and Ive had a few weeks out from trading altogether, i didnt even record any results or download my selections. I did honestly think about just jacking it in but as ive reflected ive realised that id just become too engrossed in trading and put too much pressure on myself to succeed at it. I was developing a FOMO id never had before, like id see a strategy doing well and think i had to check it out and i was afraid to miss a game on my shortlist. Again as ive reflected i realised that its only really a failure if i decided to stop trying and that in reality i have learnt an awful lot in just 6 months and in the grand scheme of it 6 months is nothing to learn what i have. Some of what ive learnt has been good, some is bad, but i do feel the bad teaches you as much as the good! As they say 'everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face'
I feel a bit of a lightweight typing this but as ive posted the good stuff previously its only right to post the negative too and sometimes typing it out makes you commit to what you are thinking. I am going to continue but im going to dial everything back quite a lot and really look at reducing my selections down. Whilst its not logistically that difficult for me to trade 10 games on one strategy, its a bit intense when you are afraid to miss a single game and also forget to concentrate on the process and instead are focussing on each outcome.
My selections will be reduced a lot (still undecided on which strategy of 2), my stakes will be dropped right back down to 'the amount doesnt matter' levels, my short term target is no longer about x profit but more of getting consistent and sustainable ways of trading and if i feel its getting too intense ill force myself to take a few days off to get myself back in check. Ill also write a few points to refer to if it gets to this.
Apologies for the long post if anyone didnt doze off! Hope to get back into the swing of things again!
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@lee-woodman 100% makes sense to keep them and then track it - see what happens, it's top work whatever way you cut the cloth - top work.
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@ryan-carruthers Yeah i think thats the obvious thing to do! The 2nd filter looks not too dissimilar in terms of figures so im going to test that using the same strategy, as time allows. I guess i put them as equal in terms of priority but they arent at the same level yet
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@lee-woodman Sounds like first filter is doing some strong things - solid amount of results and that can be scaled up.
Sounds like keeping it simple is the way with this one mate.
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Bit of a poor end to the month but its been ok overall. The main filter ive been running and tracking since July is still going really strong and has returned nearly 10pts backing at 1pt stakes. Ive analysed it as much as i can and the variance has been so low on this filter and im at nearly 500 results so this month im going to up the stakes a decent amount on it
Im still unsure how to proceed with the 2nd filter, i have until the end of tomorrow to decide! Its got a good SR at 70' but with so many selections across both filters its like trading 2 seperate strategies, its quite the commitment some days with 20+ selections! Even though each one isnt intense, the length of time im switched on to trading extends a large portion of the day. Im torn between a few options: 1 is switching it to 60' (ive analysed it and the figures look good with low variance). This will reduce the number of selections (as some appear on both filters) and also simplify things as all trades are looking at an entry of circa 60', the main judgement being value in-play. Another option is to trade this filter only on quiet days (generally monday to friday). The final option is to not trade it altogether for the time being. Obviously id still track and as my selections reduce on filter 1 i could add this filter back in. This option appeals to me in the sense of cutting my trades in half and focussing solely on one filter, which i could go quite heavy on.
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Great post Lee, I think you really hit the nail on the head about the learning aspect being so free, good and bad thing.
You seem to have made some fantastic steady, clear and measurable progress since July. All logical and one step at a time stuff. I think most things in life tend to succeed when done this way. I am sure you will go on to build yourself a tidy bank for trading now
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When i started again in July i gave myself a year to have a real go at learning trading in a different way. Often we come in and think 'i want to make x amount' but my initial thinking was to learn trading and figure out the profitability later. Thats not to say i expected to crack it within a year, but just 12 months of real initial effort to throw myself into it and see if i could make something stick. Trading is difficult as there is some much to learn but the freedom trading gives you is both good and bad. Its good for obvious reasons but there isnt a curriculum to follow, everyone has to follow their own path with some guidance. However, you dont always know if the guidance is helpful or not. And for everything you do learn you find a load more stuff you dont know which you didnt know you needed to know! Its been 6 months so far and im definitely happy with where i am at. Ive found a lot of stuff that works, a lot of stuff that doesnt work, found a lot about myself; the trading type that suits me, how i can fit it into my busy life, the flaws in my characteristics and personality that need correcting and so on. Even to the point of reading a specific book on a certain subject if i feel it cements an idea or helps adjust my opinion. I feel like im further ahead than i expected at this stage but then again i have put in a lot of time and effort just studying, reading, poring over data, testing things out. If trading crashes and burns for me then i definitely dont want to be able to bow out and say 'if only i put more effort in'
I now need to go into the next phase of 'my journey' with an eye on real bankroll management, consistent staking and compounded growth over a period of time. Ive done quite a bit of reading and considering about this part and set myself a plan for this. Ive tried to set myself as well as i can, ive worked on developing/altering habits, got as much data as i can, analysed it to death and feel like im good to go! Ive done this for the last few weeks and its worked really well so now its time to roll the dice. For me theres no issue in sticking to a trading plan, its about making sure the plan is right in the first place and i feel it is
Focussing my effort solely on one thing has been the absolute best thing i couldve done. I often consider things in a business sense as there are so many good (and bad) examples of how to do things. Like a business starting up they would check out a few products but then really hone in on one. Theyd research it, research their market/customers/competitors, understanding and correct any flaws/issues, establish the value etc etc and then finally if they are happy theyd go to market. Once it works well that product would likely need a bit less focus so they would maintain it but then focus their efforts on another. Thats just how trading works but with 'strategies' instead of 'products'
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@lee-woodman said in New (again) Member - Lee:
@martin-futter Cheers Martin! Bit of a waffle at times but hope i can share it with others in the same position as me and also pick up some knowledge & advice from people further down the line than me
no not waffle, it's great to hear and helps us all
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@martin-futter Cheers Martin! Bit of a waffle at times but hope i can share it with others in the same position as me and also pick up some knowledge & advice from people further down the line than me
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@matt-wood I cant say there was anything tangible as a lot of it is subjective, like you said. i just started to get a feel for when a goal is coming and just as important, when the game isnt as lively as i hoped. Cutting out losses is probably far easier than finding more winners and has the same affect on P/L. Im not at a point where i would consider myself good at it but i am better in using it to back-up my filter in relation to the areas that affect me. One of the things which i found helped is that as i simplified things i am now only looking at a very short time-frame in a game so i can really focus on just a concentrated area of time. As i am looking at only a 7-15' timeframe, thats 6-10 times as much practice as concentrating on 1 full game. I tend to start looking at around 65' and within less than a minute i can see the score, the pattern of scoring (ie 1-0 then 1-1 is different than 0-1 to 1-1), how lively the game is (shots, corners etc), how the situation affects each teams position, will one team settle for the result, has the team i expect to score in the game scored yet, are they looking likely to score again. Im generally just building a picture in my mind of what is happening, how the teams will feel about the situation and what could happen now. It sounds full-on but really it becomes second nature to compare that to your filter. From then i just either watch the stats or watch how the pressure is building, who is pushing, are they getting shots on target or at very least shots off target and if it starts to go how i expected then ill be looking at prices on BF. I usually like to get involved around 70'. If a goal feels imminent i will get in there and then, if it feels lively but with a slower build up then ill maybe wait a few minutes. Also if the price is very low then ill maybe get in slightly sooner, if its ridiculously high then ill leave the trade and if its towards the higher end then ill also try and wait a few minutes. Again this is subjective but if you are looking at purely one market and one small window of play you'll really fast track your knowledge on value. Once ive placed my trade im done as i dont need to trade out. I sometimes sit and keep an eye but usually i just get a notification of a goal (or no goal)
If you are struggling with any of the data/filter side of it then just give me a shout and ill see if i can help in any way. I feel ive got a good grasp on that side of it so im happy to give any pointers i can. But my main advice would be to absolutely strip everything back and get it as simple as you can, then when you have just simplify it some more!
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Excellent analysis Lee, really interesting reading. Some of the things struck a chord with me there too, although I am someway behind you on the journey yet.
Found it really thought provoking reading about how you tested yourself this month with the live/manual trades but found it did not suit you. I totally understand when you say that you needed to try for yourself to fully understand what worked for you. Think this is something similar in myself. I am not at that point yet, I still need to vastly improve my understanding of the data and the filters to get concrete 'expectations' of a game, I also need to trust in that analysis more.
I certainly need to improve my inplay judgement skills. Was there anything tangible you could point to that you improved on? I understand if not as it is a somewhat subjective skill that different people will view and interpret in different ways.
I am filing a lot of this stuff in my brain for the future when, hopefully, I get to a similar position and look to take things to the next level.
Thanks for this analysis Lee, found it really helpfull
Also congrats on your success, you seem to be making a good amount of solid progress here that will push you on to the land of green
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@lee-woodman fantastic to hear this bud
looks like all those lightbulb moments are clicking in place and your now going to reap the rewards of sticking at it and learning the right way 
have a cracking 2021 mate -
As December pretty much comes to a close ive been analysing the month. Towards the end of November i made a real push to concentrate a lot more on the situation - mainly the situation in play and assessing value. On both parts i think ive taken a big leap forward in my overall development. Ive learnt to judge a game a lot better and spot patterns of play a lot more and really try to hold off getting involved until much later in the game. My average odds has dropped a lot to laying at an average of 2.1, an indicator that i am developing that patience to get involved much later. 95% of my trades this month have been LCS so it been simpler in a lot of ways, leaving me to concentrate on the game/trade rather than switching between O1.5, O2.5, LCS, 2 SH goals etc etc. Ive also learnt to understand the value im taking a lot more. Watching markets, seeing how the odds drop at certain points and how simply waiting for a couple of minutes can make a big difference.
Between July when i re-started and this month i never got involved in a trade which wasnt on my shortlist. I did change that this month and 'allowed' myself that freedom to get involved in trades i found manually as i wanted to see where i sat on the spectrum of being purely data driven at one end and purely instinctive at the other and i wanted to practice live trading more. I realise that finding trades manually in-play doesnt suit me as i need more time to analyse stats than basing it purely on what im seeing, the extent of my live trading is to back up what i expected from the game. I also found i was often looking for trades when i didnt need to be which ends up being too full-on. Im glad i did it as a test but as its something i can simply switch off doing then going forward i wont be doing this
Taking games from my filters and judging them in-play (assessing the situation, spotting motivation triggers and getting involved at a value price) did work really well both fundamentally and technically. I like the process of it, i felt comfortable with it and statistically it worked well. It wouldve actually been a nicely profitable month if i only traded games from my filters!
Each month i feel im learning a lot and as everyone trades differently then only that person can learn what suits them best. Im really starting to find that balance and this month was integral for me. I have spent quite a bit of time learning to find filters, figures, data etc and was perhaps too data driven but to take it to the next level i had to understand how best to use that data in-play, ie reading the situation & then taking a value price. Im someone who has to feel and understand something rather than just be told so sometimes i have to put myself through a lesson for it to bed in!
Im looking forward to starting a fresh month in January. I simplified things a lot to basically only trading LCS from 70-80', which ill continue to do, and ill be only shortlisting & trading games from my filters. Hopefully i can tick over a nice profit without too much heavy variance
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@lee-woodman I'll let you off
This thread is brilliant as so many traders worry and obsess over the market when in reality as others have said including me keep it simple. LOVE IT!
I've tried to keep everything in my life simple and no drama - it's made me very happy.
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conversation here gents
Great for my learning so thank you all Seems lately for, me too, simplification keeps cropping up. As you have all alluded to in different ways, this should be applied to trading. I am trying to focus on this as one of the things I make a habit in Dec. I dont know why it has taken me so long to realise this as it applies to almost everything in life really.
