New (again) Member - Lee
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There is nothing wrong with LCS as a main strategy. Pretty much every strategy is dependent on another goal. You see systems with daft names advertised (and even dafter claims...pull up a chair and a nice cold beer, here is System Warhammer) and in the end it's a question of backing another/a goal.
Everything boils down to LCS ultimately.Well done, Lee. You've had a degree of turmoil and come out of stronger.
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@lee-woodman Read these two posts in a rush the other day, just came back and reread them properly now.
Fantastic stuff Lee
Really great to see such a solid month after your dip in form.I used to go through your data analysis for your filters and struggle to follow if I'm honest. I just though to myself well you are a beginner at this and you have a long way to go to reach this level. I am still miles behind your level on the analysis side of things but have made strides in the last 12 mnths thanks to people like you.
In a very selfish way, from my point of view, it has been super helpful to see your posts about this recent dip. To me I have seen someone I thought was (still is) miles ahead of me have a wobble. But more importantly you have come back strong from that wobble with a great month of solid work and reward for that. This sort of thing is an inspiration to me and helps me to think I can get there as well. Its the same sort of thing I have gotten from reading @Eamonn-Hogan 's blog too. Seeing you overcome a difficulty in your trading really helps me to think I can get over mine and get some solid success too.
Very wordy here, sorry, but bottom line, Thanks for the honesty of your posts and laying things out. Plus awesome green month there too
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@lee-woodman I think you've developed a totally solid portfolio here, it's adding profit as well and you have the staking and the mentality to handle it as well.
I wouldn't worry too much about being reliant on the LCS effectively needing goals as until they change the rules of football it will always be decided on goals - I went through this myself a good few years back, all my trading needed goals.
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Going forward i am trying to decide whether i need to add another type of active trade to my portfolio or not. If i am going to do that then i would like to start collecting data now and looking at markets, prices, establishing value etc. On one hand i feel ive got my eggs in one basket but on the other i do think LCS is such a market that there are always opportunities so maybe having just one type of active trade along with set-and-forgets is enough
I have also been paying attention to bankroll and staking a lot more. For the LCS trades i have been staking 5%. As my bank increases organically i will continue to top up with my own money to nudge it along a bit. Im not doing this aggressively and i wont add money in to cover losses, but say i increase my bank 10% through winning trades then im happy to add a few quid but if it goes through a loss period then it has to stand up on its own and recover the losses first (hope that makes sense). I also have different stake sizes for each strategy (taken from Stuarts idea of different banks for each strategy), so a proven one with less variance may have a % as one figure but a newer strategy or a higher variance strategy may have a much lower pt price (again, i hope ive explained this correctly). I like this way because if a strategy does well then that alone can increase, even if others are pulling the figure down
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As May ends ive totalled up for the month and its been a really solid month. My 2nd LCS filter, which has over 750 games, was looking ok but not spectacular so i re-looked at it to see what patterns i could find in it. As with my other filter i found it works much better for certain leagues than others. Ive mentioned that England, Germany, Denmark and a couple of others have been unreliable for me and i found the case to be the same with this filter. So i started looking at the best games from the filters selections and adding them to my shortlist. Ive then been quite selective in-play aswell. Its worked well and this filter has returned me 11.21 pts this month, and thats with initially staking just 2 pts. The main filter i was using has given me 10.56 pts, so its been a really good month.
I have been very selective most of the time, mainly on motivation, but there have been a couple of occasions i have been too keen to get into the trade - either too early or the fact i shouldnt have got in at all, so thats something to keep an eye on
Also this month i continued to trade Stuarts LTD which gave me 7.12pts and from the 21st i added in Keiths O1.5 which gave me 5.03. I have been looking at my own O1.5 and i made the mistake of diving in too early in adding these which lost me 5.06 over just a few days. I am still working on these and im confident i can do something, i just shouldnt have got on them until fully researched. None of the trades were actually bad selections but i wasnt at a point of confidence yet to continue with them after the losses and i think you need to be before committing.
So overall my profit for this month was 28.85 pts (21.76 for the active trades and 7.09 for set and forgets). I couldve easily pushed this up but for a few mistakes but im not going to dwell too much, its just given me a few things to work on. Overall i have to be really happy with this, both in terms of making a very decent amount and continuing to learn in the process
Its obviously going to be much much quieter now so for me personally i have to make sure i keep cutting out the games i shouldnt trade. It worked well for me when i had to cut down from 20 to 5 but itll be harder to cut down from 3 to 1 or from 2 to 0 - this is something i have to be really tight on. I actually find it easier to have nothing on my shortlist than to have 1 or 2 games, if theres nothing i can switch off altogether but if theres a couple then i feel an obligation to make a trade! So im quite wary of this month but my filters did really well for the summer leagues from July 2020 onwards so hopefully more of the same!
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@lee-woodman Always
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@ryan-carruthers yes, I’ve just got to remember ‘less, but better’
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@lee-woodman there’s something inherently about less is more with trading and life isn’t there?
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@matt-wood I stick to odds of 3.5-5.5 using the selections stuart posts in the morning. If the price is close but not within the limits then I’ll queue but set it to cancel in play if not matched
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@lee-woodman This is fantastic Lee, a great way to bounce back after your blip.
How do you play Stuarts' LTD? Have you a price limit?
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It’s been a really good, solid few weeks since I switched things up. In trading terms I have only done my original SH goals filter which has been successful for months and has a low variance. I was getting a lot of selections so I’ve concentrated on reducing this down and usually get it down to less than 5 on a busy day, maybe 1 or 2 on other days. I’ve done a lot less trades then I’ve ever done but have worked on selecting the best (not so easy but something to work on improving). I’ve also been concentrating on getting value inplay so even though I usually enter around 60’ i don’t mind hanging on for a better price if I feel the action is a little slower. I’ve also upped the stakes (points to 5%). In a way a felt it was too easy to risk a trade and not put enough thought into it when it was just a point or 2, but now it’s 5 then it forces me to think ‘if this trade isn’t good then it’s -5 pts on the results’. Overall this strategy has returned 25pts since the 9th which I’m very happy with. The filter SR overall isn’t particularly greater than other periods so I feel I’ve done well beating the filter.
I’ve also been doing Stuart’s LTD. I don’t normally blindly trade someone else’s strategy as I like to have some input or involvement but with lots of data I decided to add this. It doesn’t add any pressure to the trading day as it’s all done in the morning. This strategy returned about 9 pts.
My trading has felt really chilled and low pressure. I’ve been quite happy to just leave a trade if it doesn’t stack up or if I simply can’t be bothered trading at that time! I’m not getting too ahead that I’ve cracked that side of it but it’s a good start in getting it to be a habit
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@martin-futter Yes definitely, im looking forward to it!
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@darri Thanks Darri. It’s strange, I have a good balance of all other areas of my life and manage to counterbalance everything quite well and then trading seems an anomaly to me! Something to work on I suppose!
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@lee-woodman
Hope you’re alright dude!
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@lee-woodman keith said something similar on here recently but i agree 100% with, often it takes going to rock bottom to learn what you need to learn to succeed. I did. This quickly can go from a side hustle to an addiction fast, not saying it was but the same signs of that can creep in. Rebuild and restructure it all so that this is a hobby not a chore. Keep it a side hustle and manage your time and yourself. Let it build back slowly. You got this mate
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@matt-wood Cheers Matt. Sometimes it’s hard to step back and see that 3 steps forward and 1 step back is actually progress - it’s easy to focus on the 1 step back and see the failure in it.
Hope to get back into the swing of it soon
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@mark-maguire Thanks, I’ve shared when things are working so only right to balance with sharing things that haven’t been. Hopefully anyone in my shoes who sees it will see that it’s normal to go through this nonsense!
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@chris-osborne I think setting myself a limit of games per day will help, say 5 for example. I don’t ever away beer away from my shortlist so making that shortlist very short in the first place is what I need to do! It’s hard not to add a bit, add a bit more until you’ve got loads!
