My Trading diary
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@eamonn-hogan nothing wrong with asking just for reassurance mate, your at the stage now when a slight tweak could help you build a ticking bank and get somewhere with this. The mindset over these months has been improving and now all you need is to be armed with a solid strat that can take your mindset beyond those speculative plays of old. Good things are coming just be patient. This xmas period will be a good test of nerve for many to keep control of mindset and not get burnt. Take heart that your tracked data if it does well over this period will likely mean you have something good to come in future when your up and trading them. Building a strat is the easy part anyone can do it, the hardest part is always mindset and staying in control.
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@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
Stick at this mate. I am starting to see it slowly pay off for me. Obviously I can still improve but with some top tips from Darri I am clearly getting somewhere now.
The hardest part of this is patience. Trading is closer to gambling than we think, we teeter on that edge very closely. The reason trading works tho is because those who stick at it and try to find that winning edge prosper long term and bypass those who tried to make a quick buck. Tracking a strat feels just like that. But when its ready, armed with a solid mindset due to results, your bank will gain much faster and more consistently than many others. It takes people either a few bank busts or long enough to be on these type of forums to realise that many traders that are profitable did it by tracking in this way. Some just dont stay around long enough to realise that, many potentially good traders have come and gone in my time on here, im sure youll have seen the same. Keep up the good work mate. Looking forward to future updates.
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@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
Stick at this mate. I am starting to see it slowly pay off for me. Obviously I can still improve but with some top tips from Darri I am clearly getting somewhere now.
Good stuff mate. Yeah I thought tracking everything at the start would have been a bore but I actually am getting on well with it so far.
Glad it’s working out for you unlike that football team you support. I’m sorry to see Ole go. He was doing a great job. Think you could have won the championship with him!
I kinda like the tracking aspect, good to see my spreadsheet numbers going up.
Ole was amazing! Poch in then we will see
Seriously though even with Poch we need a big change at the board level.
Need to knock the place down!
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@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
Stick at this mate. I am starting to see it slowly pay off for me. Obviously I can still improve but with some top tips from Darri I am clearly getting somewhere now.
Good stuff mate. Yeah I thought tracking everything at the start would have been a bore but I actually am getting on well with it so far.
Glad it’s working out for you unlike that football team you support. I’m sorry to see Ole go. He was doing a great job. Think you could have won the championship with him!
I kinda like the tracking aspect, good to see my spreadsheet numbers going up.
Ole was amazing! Poch in then we will see
Seriously though even with Poch we need a big change at the board level.
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@matt-wood said in My Trading diary:
Stick at this mate. I am starting to see it slowly pay off for me. Obviously I can still improve but with some top tips from Darri I am clearly getting somewhere now.
Good stuff mate. Yeah I thought tracking everything at the start would have been a bore but I actually am getting on well with it so far.
Glad it’s working out for you unlike that football team you support. I’m sorry to see Ole go. He was doing a great job. Think you could have won the championship with him!
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@darri said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan get them both to 200 and then ill take a look for you mate, id say the data is just shy of when id think about tweaks and looking into a strat, this period of football will be very telling for many strategies
Thanks very much Darri. I can already see what I think you will say about what to do but would like to hear it from you.
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@eamonn-hogan get them both to 200 and then ill take a look for you mate, id say the data is just shy of when id think about tweaks and looking into a strat, this period of football will be very telling for many strategies
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@darri said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan Liking this plan mate, building the foundations of a strategy with solid testing is a sure fire way to success long term. Not everyone is willing to put in the grind, its probably the reason only a small amount of people are every long term profitable. Stick to this plan and see how we get on
im sure itll be a wise decisionObviously we dont know what odds or even the strat behind your figures there but im hoping that those are providing you with a good min odd criteria? Im just gonna assume that these are inplay trades and not set, because if they are pre match/ht only then they look very much the market average? Hopefully you have a good % edge on these markets.
Do you want to take a look and see what you think mate? I’m tracking the leagues and half time scores in the SHG strategy.
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@eamonn-hogan Liking this plan mate, building the foundations of a strategy with solid testing is a sure fire way to success long term. Not everyone is willing to put in the grind, its probably the reason only a small amount of people are every long term profitable. Stick to this plan and see how we get on
im sure itll be a wise decisionObviously we dont know what odds or even the strat behind your figures there but im hoping that those are providing you with a good min odd criteria? Im just gonna assume that these are inplay trades and not set, because if they are pre match/ht only then they look very much the market average? Hopefully you have a good % edge on these markets.
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Just an update
Still tracking 2 strategies. Over 1.5- This is currently sitting at 79% sr from 130 trades, and SHG which is 76% from 116 trades.
Only trades I have done this month are 15 trades from Darris LTD which there were 12 winners and +4.21 points and the other were 2 trades from Ryans split stake for a -0.48.
Really happy with my discipline and not having and other trades that would have been off course from my testing. Hoping to have a good bit of data before I contemplate staking any of the 2 strategies I am tracking and even then it will only be one strategy. Whichever one I pick to take forward I will continue to track the other.
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@darri said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan Glad we managed to help and get you into a good mindset about it. YOU have avoided the 3 red months in a row, well done mate! Please keep re reading your last few weeks on this blog. You talk about not being used to so little trading, your not jumping into your untested stuff too soon and you havent had any big bets. These are all things that in the past have hampered you. Time to change that, this month was a very good start to it. Do the same for nov/dec and youll come out good in terms of mindset. A good test of yourself will be when either mine or ryans strategies ever has a really bad run. Just keep focussed. Happy you avoided 3 reds in a row, was the whole reason i messaged and had the chat with you and we did it
Don’t hesitate to keep giving me a boot when needed.
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@eamonn-hogan Glad we managed to help and get you into a good mindset about it. YOU have avoided the 3 red months in a row, well done mate! Please keep re reading your last few weeks on this blog. You talk about not being used to so little trading, your not jumping into your untested stuff too soon and you havent had any big bets. These are all things that in the past have hampered you. Time to change that, this month was a very good start to it. Do the same for nov/dec and youll come out good in terms of mindset. A good test of yourself will be when either mine or ryans strategies ever has a really bad run. Just keep focussed. Happy you avoided 3 reds in a row, was the whole reason i messaged and had the chat with you and we did it
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End of Month.
Finished the month off well, after being down the 5.33 points after 2 weeks I was heading for a 3rd red month in a row.
After reading my blog Darri gave me the proverbial kick up the backside that I had started trading 3 strategies again. He advised me to track the SHG and trade his and Ryans split.I did this and thankfully ended the month 4.18 points in the green.
I need to keep tracking the SHG until it has matured and I see how to make it work longterm. I did not have enough data on it before to see if it can withstand a dip, I will track it until after Christmas and then tweak it if I need to.
Ryans split does not give me a lot of matched trades with only having 3 in the 2 weeks I started it, in saying that I may have missed some or not got matched.
Darri Ltd gave me 32 trades and 25 winners. There were a couple of others which I was not on but ended up +6 points for this strategy for the month.
Hoping November starts well.
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With one day left of the month I am currently break even for the month. 2 weeks in and I was 5.33 points in the red.
I am only trading Darris LTD and Ryans split stake at the minute. I have only actually had 4 trades in Ryans in the 2 weeks as they have not hit the correct odds or there has been a goal before the entry time.
Darris LTD is currently sitting at +2.08 points for me this month.
Ryans +0.84.I am still tracking my SHG filter which is currently sitting at 85% but no money will be on this until at least after the new year.
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@chris-osborne said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan Your not alone in that, I've gone back to basics as well, doing pretty much the same as you. Which I'll post more about in my own blog
The key part of this post is to do with the continuous improvement in your discipline
Yeah I was going really well for a while but my over 1.5 went well by the wayside and was not good enough, to be honest it wasnt tested well enough.
Hopefully you can get back on track soon too mate, yeah discipline is the key, I used to deposit around £250 per month into betfair to gamble. I have not lodged money into my account in well over a year, that for me is a big thing. Its no longer costing me money.
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@eamonn-hogan Your not alone in that, I've gone back to basics as well, doing pretty much the same as you. Which I'll post more about in my own blog
The key part of this post is to do with the continuous improvement in your discipline
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Currently testing a strategy in the SHG Market, there will be no money on this until I get a decent amount of results and then I tweak it again and get another batch to work on.
The only money I have in any strategy is Darris LTD and Ryans split 1.5 goals. I am back in the green for this month (just) so hopefully it will stay that way and I will avoid 3 red months on the trot.
It is hard when you are not doing as many trades when I was so used to it but I know I need to test this SHG before I get involved.
My discipline is going ok as there have been no big bets lately -not for quite some time actually but I need to master the one strat at a time method.
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@eamonn-hogan i think it perhaps time to just stop trading with money. I think its messing with your mindset. You are essentially hunting for profits and hoping to just swim back to the surface at times when it starts to go wrong. Dont think this is unique trust me we have all been there. The best thing now would be to go away and test these strategies. Like i mean a proper test. Stop trading rest of this year. Record all the strats. Get to at least 100 of trades each strategy with zero money played. Find out which one is better. Stick to that one. Your shg for example right now should not have dropped that much if you have good data behind it. The fact its dropped that much must mean you have not got enough data/games to judge how to trade them.
Liam is right, you need to move away from this confusion. If you read your reply to me does it sound like you have nailed any of them? You hope mine is good, the shgs your changing because of a drop in s/r, the lates is based on very general data that id encourage you to build a filter for and then there are the others which at least you know is wrong. All seem very vague as to how consistent they are. Its all about building a solid base, this is always by building one solid strat and then building from there.
These wouldnt be massive changes mate. Just think coming into January youd have a smashing set of data, youd know what 2 strats your going to be trading. Youd not have lost money due to overtrading or fomo. You be in a great place to kick on. 2 months to help sort the rest of your trading for life. This will test your FOMO. Good luck mate.
Dont be too down on yourself tho mate. The 2 forward 3 back isnt new to traders we all went through it. In fact i blew banks because of that. But i decided to make a change to that and to stop the rot. I went away and tracked for ages to build a solid data set and then traded based off that. Your into tracking and there is no reason you shouldnt be successful. Also remember a good strategy will still be prone to a few bad runs, if you are deleting it and moving to something else within a month id say this could be because your staking too high. Just chill, stay in control and build slowly. Build data not trends.
Ill always be up for helping if that person wants it.
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@eamonn-hogan this has been said before but you sound a little confused as to what strategy you should be doing, something i did was to give myself 100 quid to play with and i put that into smarkets when i felt the need to tinker with another strategy id jump on smarkets and put min stakes on it and record the data. this did 2 things it kept me away from my trading bank so didn't affect my main strategy and secondly it enabled me to see if that second strategy worked with minimal risk, i do this with every new strategy i want to try without paper trading, its not for everyone but it helped me.
