My Trading diary

Eamonn Hogan

@eamonn-hogan might sound like a broken record here, but why are you trading several strategies when you havent got one of them solidly consistent? Nail one/Master one and get it to being your best strategy. Then add the others.

Last month you had a losing month, you were only trading 2 strats, now you are trading 3 and "other" probably meaning more. Adding more is just compounding the problem and risk.

@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:

2nd August
Anyone reading this and still doing 3/4 strategies please pick one and stick to it, it really is a game changer.

This was you when you posted your last good month. All of us came on to congratulate you on that discipline. Based on what iv seen you have ditched the 1.5s, gone back to doing "other" trades/bets and started to rely on my strategy a bit to help you here. We brand this about too much but really it kills good, average and bad traders all the time, but FOMO comes in many forms. Not just seeing others posting winners and wanting to be on, but also on new strats and staking. Kind of like you not wanting to miss out on my ltds, asking for phone notifications. You were really starting to get somewhere before and then went back after a few bad runs.

Im thinking perhaps its a case to stop this becoming another month of red, dial down the stakes, build that confidence back up. If you are posting on here with another red start, looking to add yet more changes to strats by changing odds just because a strike rate has decreased slightly, it doesnt look like progress. Choose one of these strategies. Stick with it, record the data, be confident in long historic data not trends. Some of those losing months could have been sizeable. Go back to what was working. Dont just ditch stuff because it has one bad month. Especially if it was your main earner. The fact you posted the quote above and have since gone against it hopefully will help you here. Hope this helps mate. I remember you saying in that post you almost gave up trading, lets not let that happen again and get to work on changing this before it goes bad again.

I dont want to see you hit with another bad month, we have to avoid 3 in a row mate, always here if you want a hand or someone to speak to about trading bud. Hope you take this well and see its constructive and giving you a good potential plan to change all this from just continuing without an option.

Yes I know what you mean regarding the different strategies. One is yours which I know you have tested and are happy with and is a set and forget. The SHG is the only one I’m using of a filter and is my main strategy. The filter is not performing as well as it needs to for odds of 1.3 so that is why was going to change to 1.45. The lates are basically games that are 0-0 at 70 mins and have good in play stats. As only 9% of games end 0-0 means 91% of games have at least one goal and backing at 2.0 I only need 50% to break even. These trades are not as many.

When you say go back to doing what was profitable, that was my over 1.5, maybe I should do it then instead of SHG? It had 2 poor months on a row and got me hard points wise. Perhaps I need to change staking in it?

The “others” should not be there I agree. These are trades that I just see and get on. I see these as a view to my like of a bet but instead of me putting what I normally would have when I was a gambler I only stake in-line with my points now. But yes I need to lose them.

I appreciate you taking the time to read these mate and offer your advice. I feel as if I am 2 steps forward and 3 back at the minute.

Martin

@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:

I also have purchased a fairbot subscription and have put in all my trades for tonight and tomorrow. I dont want to go back to being glued to the laptop.

Late tonight and tomorrows SHG selections.
Fairbot should only kick in if its 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 and the next goal odds are 1.45 or greater.

Columbus Crew Inter Miami CF
Toronto FC Atlanta United
America MG Bahia
Belupo Osijek
Zlin Hradec Kralove
Stromsgodset Viking
Sturm Graz Ried
Brann Stabaek
Gent Eupen

sounds like a good idea! are you automating them?

? Offline

@eamonn-hogan might sound like a broken record here, but why are you trading several strategies when you havent got one of them solidly consistent? Nail one/Master one and get it to being your best strategy. Then add the others.

Last month you had a losing month, you were only trading 2 strats, now you are trading 3 and "other" probably meaning more. Adding more is just compounding the problem and risk.

@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:

2nd August
Anyone reading this and still doing 3/4 strategies please pick one and stick to it, it really is a game changer.

This was you when you posted your last good month. All of us came on to congratulate you on that discipline. Based on what iv seen you have ditched the 1.5s, gone back to doing "other" trades/bets and started to rely on my strategy a bit to help you here. We brand this about too much but really it kills good, average and bad traders all the time, but FOMO comes in many forms. Not just seeing others posting winners and wanting to be on, but also on new strats and staking. Kind of like you not wanting to miss out on my ltds, asking for phone notifications. You were really starting to get somewhere before and then went back after a few bad runs.

Im thinking perhaps its a case to stop this becoming another month of red, dial down the stakes, build that confidence back up. If you are posting on here with another red start, looking to add yet more changes to strats by changing odds just because a strike rate has decreased slightly, it doesnt look like progress. Choose one of these strategies. Stick with it, record the data, be confident in long historic data not trends. Some of those losing months could have been sizeable. Go back to what was working. Dont just ditch stuff because it has one bad month. Especially if it was your main earner. The fact you posted the quote above and have since gone against it hopefully will help you here. Hope this helps mate. I remember you saying in that post you almost gave up trading, lets not let that happen again and get to work on changing this before it goes bad again.

I dont want to see you hit with another bad month, we have to avoid 3 in a row mate, always here if you want a hand or someone to speak to about trading bud. Hope you take this well and see its constructive and giving you a good potential plan to change all this from just continuing without an option.

Eamonn Hogan

I also have purchased a fairbot subscription and have put in all my trades for tonight and tomorrow. I dont want to go back to being glued to the laptop.

Late tonight and tomorrows SHG selections.
Fairbot should only kick in if its 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 and the next goal odds are 1.45 or greater.

Columbus Crew Inter Miami CF
Toronto FC Atlanta United
America MG Bahia
Belupo Osijek
Zlin Hradec Kralove
Stromsgodset Viking
Sturm Graz Ried
Brann Stabaek
Gent Eupen

Eamonn Hogan

My SHG is currently averaging 70% of a strike rate so I am going to move the odds i will take to 1.45 instead of 1.3. I realise I will miss out on a lot of successful trades but the average goal in my data suggests a goal around 68 minutes.

Eamonn Hogan

Been quiet on here lately through doing most of my trading on my phone as I have been busy at work.

October started much the same as the past two months with a lot of red.

Currently looking at this:
Strategy trades wins s/r p/l
SHG 14 10 71.4 -1.86
LATE GOAL 12 5 41.7 -1.42
DARRI LTD 7 5 71.4 -0.30
Other 5 3 60.0 -1.75
TOTALS 38 23 60.5 -5.33

Going through a bad patch at the moment. Hopefully it will turn around soon.

Eamonn Hogan

Monday 4th

SHG
Brage

Eamonn Hogan

Sunday 3 October

SHG
Helsingborg Sundsvall +0.29
Orgryte Falkenbergs +0.29

Still to come if odds reach 1.3
Mjondalen Brann (red card no trade)
Kristiansund Rosenborg (red card no trade)

Total +0.58

Eamonn Hogan

September report:

DISASTER.

I have had 3 losing months in the last 14 and 2 of them were the last 2 months. A total loss of 12.27 points.
Over 1.5 -8.71
SHG -6.18
These were the main reasons.

My discipline was hugely tested during this period, yes I went a bit off my filters and my strategies doing some different things but I never staked too high which is something I am happy about.
I believe quite a few people had a poor September so I am not alone.

My over 1.5 is now put on the back burner for a while as it is eating too much into any profit I made over the past few months and is now -7 points since it started.

I was laying under 1.5 at odds of 4 or lower so a loser was taking a big hit, I am now staking 1 point max on any trade with the exception of Darris LTD which will be to win 1 point.

Going forward I am still at my SHG which I back at odds 1.3 minimum for 1 point and also looking at my data quite a few goals happen late on so am staking 1 point on late goals.
The SHG will be filter only and the late goal will be games I am tracking for good inplay stats. This will be odds of 2 minimum around the 70 minute mark.

Also will be following Darris LTD as it is in absolute fabulous form.

October results so far

SHG -0.22
LATE GOAL 0.94
DARRI LTD 0.98

TOTALS 1.70

Feeling confident of getting back on track this October.

Eamonn Hogan

@alastair-todd said in My Trading diary:

@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:

@daniel-mills

Ok, the filters worked well in most cases. A couple of trades didn’t get matched as the market was suspended for the period that the bet was supposed to be taken.
I think I like the idea of it but think I may just use Manuel trading until I’m more confident in what I’m doing.

I'm sure there's a joke in there about Fawlty Towers somewhere!

good one. Maybe that’s typical of my trading lately.

Alastair Todd

@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:

@daniel-mills

Ok, the filters worked well in most cases. A couple of trades didn’t get matched as the market was suspended for the period that the bet was supposed to be taken.
I think I like the idea of it but think I may just use Manuel trading until I’m more confident in what I’m doing.

I'm sure there's a joke in there about Fawlty Towers somewhere!

Eamonn Hogan

@daniel-mills

Ok, the filters worked well in most cases. A couple of trades didn’t get matched as the market was suspended for the period that the bet was supposed to be taken.
I think I like the idea of it but think I may just use Manuel trading until I’m more confident in what I’m doing.