The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@keith-anderson I've been trying to use reverse Psychology on my daughters for 15 years.. telling them Boys are horrible and I wouldn't mind if they wanted to be LGBT orientated .. so far no boyfriends so its all good
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
OK, its time for me to put my newbie dumb ass into this current discussion, please be easy on me, its a couple of questions that i have been dying to ask but have thought , no, dont show how stupid you are , but anyway, here goes ....
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OK, with Keiths 3pc , one of his aims is to double his Bank from one month to next, so, say, 100 pounds at Jan start to 200 pounds at Jan end and thereon.
Keith has already achieved his end goal of over 200.
So, ..... therefore shouldnt his pp be in excess of 100 ? instead of 16.7 or whatever DJ said? -
SHG has always intrigued me, as there isnt a market purely to trade there will be a SHG - or is there?!
So, i've taken this as an option to a) carry on with the U1.5, b) maybe look for another market, such as LTD, (if its drawing at HT), or any other market that you feel suitable for a SHG.
What i have found, for me personally( as i bit risk averse !), is that i am checking the scores at HT (whilst watching as many of the games as i can), and with any still at 0-0, i check the stats for attempts etc, and look to bail out of 1.5 on 50-55 if still no goal and then raise a new Lay U0.5 trade.
Also, can this be scaled? - so, in other words, if you start with 1000 , could you get to 2000? I know liquidity might be a bit of an issue, but with 3 per cent stakes you would be looking at 30 pound trades, which might not be too much of an issue methinks.
Be gentle on me ....
The only stupid question is the one that is not asked!
- Its 16.7 points not pounds.
For his SHG I have been a little selective plus there may be some I didnt get matched on which is why not the same number of selection.
Same for his 1.5s maybe some didnt get matched.
Bear in mind these are my results and there will always be some variation due to staking. Very roughly I'm doing 1 pt lay for his 1.5s, 0.5+ for the SHG.
Come February looking to do 1 pt on each.
I let all of these run and only cash out if a FH red card. SH red card I will make a decision on.
I'm setting the 1.5 lay @4.9 or less. The SHG I set at HT for 5.0 or take what's on offer if less. Then I just leave it.
Some HT scores I will leave.
- Yes you can scale in line with good bank roll management and staking, your risk level you are comfortable with and liquidity.
I'm not doing 3% stakes or liability btw
Hope that helps
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@keith-anderson I saw what @Ryan did there too ..
on second thoughts I'd better shut up or he may mention the time I lost my phone :face_without_mouth:
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OK, its time for me to put my newbie dumb ass into this current discussion, please be easy on me, its a couple of questions that i have been dying to ask but have thought , no, dont show how stupid you are , but anyway, here goes ....
....-
OK, with Keiths 3pc , one of his aims is to double his Bank from one month to next, so, say, 100 pounds at Jan start to 200 pounds at Jan end and thereon.
Keith has already achieved his end goal of over 200.
So, ..... therefore shouldnt his pp be in excess of 100 ? instead of 16.7 or whatever DJ said? -
SHG has always intrigued me, as there isnt a market purely to trade there will be a SHG - or is there?!
So, i've taken this as an option to a) carry on with the U1.5, b) maybe look for another market, such as LTD, (if its drawing at HT), or any other market that you feel suitable for a SHG.
What i have found, for me personally( as i bit risk averse !), is that i am checking the scores at HT (whilst watching as many of the games as i can), and with any still at 0-0, i check the stats for attempts etc, and look to bail out of 1.5 on 50-55 if still no goal and then raise a new Lay U0.5 trade.
Also, can this be scaled? - so, in other words, if you start with 1000 , could you get to 2000? I know liquidity might be a bit of an issue, but with 3 per cent stakes you would be looking at 30 pound trades, which might not be too much of an issue methinks.
Be gentle on me ....
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@kevyn-clark personally id class each split as a strategy by themselves and then work out if each is profitable or not
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@martin-walker so in Over 0.5 FH goals I normally enter at 1.4 and then 2 and 2.5, according to the stats I hit 69% of those trades 1.44 is minimum needed to break even so the 2nd and third entry need to be taken to stand any chance of being profitable overall....and the trade wins of course
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@kevyn-clark so youd ideally be taking much better odds than that to have a decent sized margin
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@martin-walker Thanks that was a lot more straight forward than I thought it would be.
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@kevyn-clark 1 divided by 0.65 equals 1.54 rounded
That would be your break even odds
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Hi everyone a quick question, I have been concentrating on a couple of strategies mainly the overs markets, HT, FT generally over 0.5 + 1.5 goals. From staketoys it shows that on average I win between 65 - 69% of my trades (not quite as neat as Keiths 85%+ strike rates
) I was wondering if anybody knows how you would calculate that to what odds you would need to be profitable in the long term on average. Or would the strike rate need to be higher overall? I struggle a little bit when it comes to working out percentages and appreciate that my question may be too vague to give a definitive answer but thought it worth asking. -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Has anyone recorded all my 3% trades? I just want to see what is performing better (1.5's or SHG)?!
Ive recorded all your 1.5 selections and SHGs since end of November. Well the ones I've matched on and the SHGs I've chosen to do.
You want them all or just from starting the 3% club?
You want SR or points profit?
I'm just looking both SR & PP from the start of the 3% Club if possible.
Ok so I have this
1.5, 48 selections SR 85.4%, 16.8 pts profit
SHG, 40 selections, SR 87.5%, 17.7 pts profit
I've not been sticking to exactly the 3% club. I've done all your proper 1.5 selections and then chosen the SHG based on HT score.
Perfect! Thanks for this! Much appreciated
No problem, thanks for doing them!
Got to be honest and say Im suprised that your SHG are beating the 1.5. I know it's only slightly but anecdotally I thought they were struggling.
Keep up the great work
I'm just happy you posting the selections!
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@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Has anyone recorded all my 3% trades? I just want to see what is performing better (1.5's or SHG)?!
Ive recorded all your 1.5 selections and SHGs since end of November. Well the ones I've matched on and the SHGs I've chosen to do.
You want them all or just from starting the 3% club?
You want SR or points profit?
I'm just looking both SR & PP from the start of the 3% Club if possible.
Ok so I have this
1.5, 48 selections SR 85.4%, 16.8 pts profit
SHG, 40 selections, SR 87.5%, 17.7 pts profit
I've not been sticking to exactly the 3% club. I've done all your proper 1.5 selections and then chosen the SHG based on HT score.
Perfect! Thanks for this! Much appreciated
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Has anyone recorded all my 3% trades? I just want to see what is performing better (1.5's or SHG)?!
Ive recorded all your 1.5 selections and SHGs since end of November. Well the ones I've matched on and the SHGs I've chosen to do.
You want them all or just from starting the 3% club?
You want SR or points profit?
I'm just looking both SR & PP from the start of the 3% Club if possible.
Ok so I have this
1.5, 48 selections SR 85.4%, 16.8 pts profit
SHG, 40 selections, SR 87.5%, 17.7 pts profit
I've not been sticking to exactly the 3% club. I've done all your proper 1.5 selections and then chosen the SHG based on HT score.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson This is exceptional stuff, I wonder how far you can take it?
Don't be trying that reverse psychology s**t on me!!
He is a father now. If that doesn't work then he might send you to your room without dinner to think about what you've done!
I studied 'Applied Behaviour Analysis'! He needs to up his game!!
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@dj-reid said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Has anyone recorded all my 3% trades? I just want to see what is performing better (1.5's or SHG)?!
Ive recorded all your 1.5 selections and SHGs since end of November. Well the ones I've matched on and the SHGs I've chosen to do.
You want them all or just from starting the 3% club?
You want SR or points profit?
I'm just looking both SR & PP from the start of the 3% Club if possible.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Has anyone recorded all my 3% trades? I just want to see what is performing better (1.5's or SHG)?!
Ive recorded all your 1.5 selections and SHGs since end of November. Well the ones I've matched on and the SHGs I've chosen to do.
You want them all or just from starting the 3% club?
You want SR or points profit?
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson This is exceptional stuff, I wonder how far you can take it?
Don't be trying that reverse psychology s**t on me!!
He is a father now. If that doesn't work then he might send you to your room without dinner to think about what you've done!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Has anyone recorded all my 3% trades? I just want to see what is performing better (1.5's or SHG)?!
No - But if no-one has, I'll go back and collate it all for you later.
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson This is exceptional stuff, I wonder how far you can take it?
Don't be trying that reverse psychology s**t on me!!
