The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not a great starting XI from Napoli.
Need to win it they want to be in the title race
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Not a great starting XI from Napoli.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@richard-latimer Cheers buddy, I think its my most underrated video!
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Just two for me tonight:
O2.5 decent stats Jong Ajax vs Almere ( also Home Fav.. 97% FHG 93% 01.5)
Will trade from early drip stake out by 60 mins
O1.5
Randers vs Viborg 86% 01.5
Enter when 1.3 or above
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@chris-osborne Thanks Chris, yes I'm really trying to focus and have done well enough doing so .. it will I guess boil down to if this stacks up as a legitimate trade to include
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@Martin Thanks Martin. Yes its a good way of looking at it .. I guess I've had it drummed in to me so much on here about not chasing that I'm paranoid.
Essentially I drip stake my 02.5 goals to sixty minutes then out.
The performance of that is great but in the last month or two I've been refining it to minimise losses and maximise returns and often in that case that means trading in play where the IPS stack up by staying in after an early goal, or if my stats suggest it a correct score trade.
Separately Ive been influenced by the likes of Keith with SHG and examined my 01.5 filter which (touch wood) is flying and has a large number of SHG's.
It got me thinking about how often over the 1000 games plus I've traded on each filter there's been a nil nil. And even more so now I've refined the pre trading selection process that number when it applies to my top picks is tiny - so given those set of circumstances is it worth a separate trade - I've done it twice of the four times available recently and its been green.. but as ever with me I've argued with myself over it...
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@mark-maguire mark for me no matter what the final outcome you need to stick to your strategy and trading plan.
My biggest problems and losses occur when I trade outside of this and not keep to exit strategies or get involved in games not on my original plan.
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From looking at it literally the only scoreline I'll get involved in @ HT with the German game is 2-0 (still smarting from 2-0 over the weekend but it wouldn't stop me haha!)
Jong Ajax looks like it will qualify on anything but 0-0 or 2-1 (1-0 is also a bit up in the air home odds currently just too high.. I also never do 0-2 or 1-2 or the results for these scorelines are generally bad!
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Back to it with renewed focus:
While no one wants a 10-15% drop over a single weekend I think weekends like this last could actually be good in small irregular doses. Helps me to realise this isn't done and that as much as I'd like to look at adding to the portfolio of 1 there really is no point until I have this one nailed!!
That said, the over 1.5 will be trialled again as soon as I have someone interesting to spend my weekends with once more haha!
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Here's a question for the experienced traders on here. So touch wood its been a great couple of months, consistent growth, but having an argument with myself over one subject..
When is chasing, chasing, and when is it not. Let me set a scenario.
A couple of occasions in recent weeks.. games absolutely at the top of my stats list, Great IPS, but for what ever reason (football gods) no goal so out after sixty minutes - take the loss.
But.. opportunity based on everything above, take for example the Red Bull Salzburg game yesterday .. loads of Shots on Target .. continued in second half, corners etc etc .. only argument against was their game against Bayern in the week having taken its toll and it being first against second.. but had taken that into account in my staking.. so I'm sitting here absolutely convinced there will be a goal .. based on stats and checks not on gut, and the trade is LCS after 65 mins for example.
I've seen this scenario three times in the last month .. very special combination of circumstance, strong home favourite, strong pre match stats, strong in play stats, consistent stats first and second half .. on each occasion there's been a goal.
But the question for the pros is :
Legitimate trade or chase?
What's your initial trade strategy? Just feels like a second trade on the same match to me, if you trade cricket you will know there is nothing wrong with that, sometimes 50 in one market
All that matters is staking, discipline and value. Keep those cornerstones at the centre of all of your decisions.
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@Ryan love that .. thank you .. and makes complete sense, so start monitoring these situations and paper trade the scenario..interestingly the biggest source of my growth in recent weeks has been:
- Focus
- Minimising loss by pre trade analysis
- Maximising returns by fully exploiting trades at the top of my list
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@keith-anderson Brilliant thanks Keith makes sense
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@lee-woodman Thanks Lee .. I've got to the point (I think) where its an un-emotional evaluation of the value of the opportunity but being uber cautious and dont want to go down a dangerous path
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mark-maguire For me I tend to try and get away from the chase not chase angle and in my after the fact research look at what happened.
I am always trying to exploit my strategy so I want to know what happened after - can I get more profit, can I find a pattern in the bad trades after I get out etc... if a pattern emerges that I am getting out too soon, I lean into it.
This explains my thinking on exploiting strategies
Excellent video. Think I may still be in the left hand side on mine but it's gradually moving to the right.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@mark-maguire For me I tend to try and get away from the chase not chase angle and in my after the fact research look at what happened.
I am always trying to exploit my strategy so I want to know what happened after - can I get more profit, can I find a pattern in the bad trades after I get out etc... if a pattern emerges that I am getting out too soon, I lean into it.
This explains my thinking on exploiting strategies
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@dj-reid Exactly that, I did a deep dive on the stats on them and it was comparable to the big leagues for every stat I need for football - Goals etc..
I like the amount of them as well, there's less so it focuses me better and the leagues and games themselves are fun I find. Nordic ones, Brazil etc.. it's just good to watch other footie!
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Here's a question for the experienced traders on here. So touch wood its been a great couple of months, consistent growth, but having an argument with myself over one subject..
When is chasing, chasing, and when is it not. Let me set a scenario.
A couple of occasions in recent weeks.. games absolutely at the top of my stats list, Great IPS, but for what ever reason (football gods) no goal so out after sixty minutes - take the loss.
But.. opportunity based on everything above, take for example the Red Bull Salzburg game yesterday .. loads of Shots on Target .. continued in second half, corners etc etc .. only argument against was their game against Bayern in the week having taken its toll and it being first against second.. but had taken that into account in my staking.. so I'm sitting here absolutely convinced there will be a goal .. based on stats and checks not on gut, and the trade is LCS after 65 mins for example.
I've seen this scenario three times in the last month .. very special combination of circumstance, strong home favourite, strong pre match stats, strong in play stats, consistent stats first and second half .. on each occasion there's been a goal.
But the question for the pros is :
Legitimate trade or chase?
Managed Liability!! It's not a chase for me if it reaches certain parameters. My trades are pre-defined, but I always feel you have to react (a red card is a good example). You are just reacting to probability in a certain scenario. For me, chasing a loss is when you remove all the pre-defined stuff and all the parameters. In essence, when my trade becomes a gamble - when I think 'possibility' rather than 'probability'.
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@mark-maguire If the trade wouldve been placed regardless of the outcome of any previous trade then its not chasing. If you are reacting to the outcome of another trade then its chasing. We want to be at a point of not getting emotionally affected by winners or losers and placing every trade independently of what happened previously
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Here's a question for the experienced traders on here. So touch wood its been a great couple of months, consistent growth, but having an argument with myself over one subject..
When is chasing, chasing, and when is it not. Let me set a scenario.
A couple of occasions in recent weeks.. games absolutely at the top of my stats list, Great IPS, but for what ever reason (football gods) no goal so out after sixty minutes - take the loss.
But.. opportunity based on everything above, take for example the Red Bull Salzburg game yesterday .. loads of Shots on Target .. continued in second half, corners etc etc .. only argument against was their game against Bayern in the week having taken its toll and it being first against second.. but had taken that into account in my staking.. so I'm sitting here absolutely convinced there will be a goal .. based on stats and checks not on gut, and the trade is LCS after 65 mins for example.
I've seen this scenario three times in the last month .. very special combination of circumstance, strong home favourite, strong pre match stats, strong in play stats, consistent stats first and second half .. on each occasion there's been a goal.
But the question for the pros is :
Legitimate trade or chase?
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@oliver-preen No mate, its a passive profits strategy from UFT
