The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Simji]

i have 4 filters built for the unders in the first 20 so im going to track them to see which one has a better strike rate.

Below are games that appear on 2 or more of the 4

Rest of the games

[Richard Latimer]

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Cheers mate will double check my scrape as it only showed 2 Home Teams (Plzen & Porto) with plus 100 & 63 or greater with the comeback... Out of interest do you relay the dog if Fav equalises or just keep laying the dog every time they score until the Fav does... Obviously, or take red if Fav doesn't score

I stay in on strong home teams and cash on strong away teams. Idealy I want the home team to take the lead or I get out after 70-75 mins if still drawing.

Martin did it differently the other day and if it works it works but this is just what I've found from my records.

I normally discard if stronger team goes ahead as it's a complete change of momentum should they then concede 2 goals and fall behind. That said, I may start keeping an eye on this.

Important thing is that I think when the game goes a bit back and forth it's time to take green when you can and run.

[james everard]

Morning all much more on my filters for today, but I have amended the filters and strategies slightly to try to generate more profit. For instance on the split stake 1.5 goal strategy I was originally entering on 30mins , 45mins , 55 and 65mins and trading out at a loss on 72mins. I was finding if entered on 30mins at say 1.6 odds and a goal went in on 35mins the profit was minimal. So I am now going to enter as the second half kicks off if 0-0 and amended my filter accordingly for percentage of goals to be scored between 46-90+ to 60% or higher ( less games will be tradable but I am hoping more profit will be made overall)
The ltd at half time filter I will now enter the trade on 60mins if no second half goal has been scored rather than at half time.

BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY(AT 45MINS)
16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- F.Amager vs Naestved
16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- Koge vs Frederica
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
18.00pm German 3rd Liga- Sinnenhof Grossaspach vs Preussen Munster
19.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Salzburg

LTD AT 60MINS IF 0-0 OR 1-1 AND NO SECOND HALF GOAL
16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- F.Amager vs Naestved
16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- Koge vs Frederica
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
18.00pm German 3rd Liga- Wurzberger Kickers vs Jena
19.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
19.30pm Poland Ekstraklasa - Legia vs Arka Gdynia

LATE GOAL EXPECTED ( if the match is a draw split stake ltd on 74mins and 83mins)
17.00pm Poland Ekstraklasa- Wisla vs Radow
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
19.30pm Poland Ekstraklasa - Legia vs Arka Gdynia

LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD AND DOUBLE UP IF GO 2-0 UP
16.00pm Czech 2- Trinec vs Vysehrad ( Lay away)
17.00pm Czech 1- Sparta Prague vs Opava ( Lay away)
17.00pm Czech 1- Ceske Budejovice vs Teplice ( Lay away)
17.00pm Czech 1- Jablonec vs Karvina ( Lay away)
17.00pm Czech 1- Plzen vs Zlin ( lay away)
17.30pm Austria 2nd- Vorwards Steyr vs Horn ( lay away)
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg( lay away)
17.30pm Austria 2nd - Grazer vs Ried ( Lay Home)
18.00pm Israel Leumit League- H . Nazareth vs Hapoel Bnei Lod ( lay away)
18.00pm Hungary Otp Bank Liga- Puskas Academy vs Kaposvar ( Lay Away)
18.00pm German 3rd Liga- Wurzberger Kickers vs Jena ( Lay away)
19.15pm Portugal Primera - Portimonense vs Benfica ( Lay Home)
19.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Salzburg ( Lay home)
19.30pm Poland Ekstraklasa - Legia vs Arka Gdynia ( Lay Away)
20.05pm Hungary Otp Bank Liga- Paks vs Ferencvaros ( Lay Home)
21.30pm Portugal Primera - Fc Porto vs Maritimo ( Lay away)

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

FHG @ 1.51

Ceske v Teplice
LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz v Salzburg

With the split stake from me today

Do you take your split stake results as a given or do you re filter them and only select a couple mate?

[A Former User]

When you guys create filters do you prefer to do it over 10 or 20 matches. I was wondering if 10 gives you a more recent reflection of form. Or whether it’s more reliable to have results over a longer period? I’ve created a filter and have been recording results but having a play this morning I get more matches over 10 than I do 20. I feel like it’s probably personal preference but thought I’d ask

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers

Hi mate, what is your staking for split stake on fh goals? and what prices do you enter?

cheers

Dan

[A Former User]

Data is still young on my Post COVID FHG filter but after missing so many early goals and checking previous games I've decided to follow @Allan-Birch's idea of using 4 split stakes... Will see how things go... I only have 21 games to date (22 with today's) and whilst no game has ended 0-0 (filter was originally set up to avoid 0-0's) it's still too early to suggest it's profitable laying the HT score/Lay u0.5 goals as a recovery trade.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Ah!!! I was measuring the "Come Back" as a difference... i.e. Home minus Away etc.

[A Former User]

One FHG from my filter today;

Austria 10/06/2020 17:30 - LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Cheers mate will double check my scrape as it only showed 2 Home Teams (Plzen & Porto) with plus 100 & 63 or greater with the comeback... Out of interest do you relay the dog if Fav equalises or just keep laying the dog every time they score until the Fav does... Obviously, or take red if Fav doesn't score

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer must just have overlooked them! not sure how. Did it a couple days ago i think. Cheers

[A Former User]

@martin-futter Hi martin how are these games selected?
Looks good.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Some ratings picks today! The strong team is highlighted as 'home or away' below. We lay the underdog if they go a goal up and double down in they go two up:

5:00 PM Plzen v Zlin Home
5:30 PM Wolfsberger v Hartberg Home
5:30 PM Grazer v Ried Away
6:00 PM Wurzburger v Jena Home
7:15 PM Portimonense v Benfica Away
7:30 PM Sturm Graz v Salzburg Away
7:30 PM Legia v Arka Gdynia Home
9:30 PM Porto v Maritimo Home

@Alan-Steward, @John-Hurst

Mine concurs:

[Ryan]

FHG @ 1.51

Ceske v Teplice
LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz v Salzburg

With the split stake from me today

[Richard Latimer]

@alan-steward it is literally only the comeback ratings

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer What additional criteria do you look for mate other than 100+ ELO?

[Richard Latimer]

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter morning martin, are you just going off the ELO rating now of 100+ difference? i thought the comeback ratings had to be 63+ for home and 70+ for away? when i filtered mine out i didn’t see any picks for today unless ive done it wrong

There's definitely quite a few @John-Hurst. I'll post up what I have in a bit and it should tally.

[A Former User]

@john-hurst Thanks for that question mate... I've also been now been checking as you've posted i.e. 63 home come back & 70 away comeback

[A Former User]

This post is deleted!

[Martin]

Some ratings picks today! The strong team is highlighted as 'home or away' below. We lay the underdog if they go a goal up and double down in they go two up:

5:00 PM Plzen v Zlin Home
5:30 PM Wolfsberger v Hartberg Home
5:30 PM Grazer v Ried Away
6:00 PM Wurzburger v Jena Home
7:15 PM Portimonense v Benfica Away
7:30 PM Sturm Graz v Salzburg Away
7:30 PM Legia v Arka Gdynia Home
9:30 PM Porto v Maritimo Home