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The BTC Football Trading Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
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  • S Offline
    S Offline
    Simji
    wrote on last edited by
    #39441

    i have 4 filters built for the unders in the first 20 so im going to track them to see which one has a better strike rate.

    Below are games that appear on 2 or more of the 4

    0_1591788646044_Screen Shot 2020-06-10 at 12.29.36.png

    Rest of the games
    0_1591788681645_Screen Shot 2020-06-10 at 12.29.43.png

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by Richard Latimer
    #39442

    @alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @richard-latimer Cheers mate will double check my scrape as it only showed 2 Home Teams (Plzen & Porto) with plus 100 & 63 or greater with the comeback... Out of interest do you relay the dog if Fav equalises or just keep laying the dog every time they score until the Fav does... Obviously, or take red if Fav doesn't score

    I stay in on strong home teams and cash on strong away teams. Idealy I want the home team to take the lead or I get out after 70-75 mins if still drawing.

    Martin did it differently the other day and if it works it works but this is just what I've found from my records.

    I normally discard if stronger team goes ahead as it's a complete change of momentum should they then concede 2 goals and fall behind. That said, I may start keeping an eye on this.

    Important thing is that I think when the game goes a bit back and forth it's time to take green when you can and run.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    wrote on last edited by
    #39443

    Morning all much more on my filters for today, but I have amended the filters and strategies slightly to try to generate more profit. For instance on the split stake 1.5 goal strategy I was originally entering on 30mins , 45mins , 55 and 65mins and trading out at a loss on 72mins. I was finding if entered on 30mins at say 1.6 odds and a goal went in on 35mins the profit was minimal. So I am now going to enter as the second half kicks off if 0-0 and amended my filter accordingly for percentage of goals to be scored between 46-90+ to 60% or higher ( less games will be tradable but I am hoping more profit will be made overall)
    The ltd at half time filter I will now enter the trade on 60mins if no second half goal has been scored rather than at half time.

    BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY(AT 45MINS)
    16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- F.Amager vs Naestved
    16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- Koge vs Frederica
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
    18.00pm German 3rd Liga- Sinnenhof Grossaspach vs Preussen Munster
    19.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Salzburg

    LTD AT 60MINS IF 0-0 OR 1-1 AND NO SECOND HALF GOAL
    16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- F.Amager vs Naestved
    16.00pm Denmark 1st Div- Koge vs Frederica
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
    18.00pm German 3rd Liga- Wurzberger Kickers vs Jena
    19.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Salzburg
    19.30pm Poland Ekstraklasa - Legia vs Arka Gdynia

    LATE GOAL EXPECTED ( if the match is a draw split stake ltd on 74mins and 83mins)
    17.00pm Poland Ekstraklasa- Wisla vs Radow
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna
    19.30pm Poland Ekstraklasa - Legia vs Arka Gdynia

    LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD AND DOUBLE UP IF GO 2-0 UP
    16.00pm Czech 2- Trinec vs Vysehrad ( Lay away)
    17.00pm Czech 1- Sparta Prague vs Opava ( Lay away)
    17.00pm Czech 1- Ceske Budejovice vs Teplice ( Lay away)
    17.00pm Czech 1- Jablonec vs Karvina ( Lay away)
    17.00pm Czech 1- Plzen vs Zlin ( lay away)
    17.30pm Austria 2nd- Vorwards Steyr vs Horn ( lay away)
    17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wolfsberger vs Hartberg( lay away)
    17.30pm Austria 2nd - Grazer vs Ried ( Lay Home)
    18.00pm Israel Leumit League- H . Nazareth vs Hapoel Bnei Lod ( lay away)
    18.00pm Hungary Otp Bank Liga- Puskas Academy vs Kaposvar ( Lay Away)
    18.00pm German 3rd Liga- Wurzberger Kickers vs Jena ( Lay away)
    19.15pm Portugal Primera - Portimonense vs Benfica ( Lay Home)
    19.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Sturm Graz vs Salzburg ( Lay home)
    19.30pm Poland Ekstraklasa - Legia vs Arka Gdynia ( Lay Away)
    20.05pm Hungary Otp Bank Liga- Paks vs Ferencvaros ( Lay Home)
    21.30pm Portugal Primera - Fc Porto vs Maritimo ( Lay away)

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #39444

    @ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    FHG @ 1.51

    Ceske v Teplice
    LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna
    Sturm Graz v Salzburg

    With the split stake from me today 🙂

    Do you take your split stake results as a given or do you re filter them and only select a couple mate?

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #39445

    When you guys create filters do you prefer to do it over 10 or 20 matches. I was wondering if 10 gives you a more recent reflection of form. Or whether it’s more reliable to have results over a longer period? I’ve created a filter and have been recording results but having a play this morning I get more matches over 10 than I do 20. I feel like it’s probably personal preference but thought I’d ask

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #39446

    @ryan-carruthers

    Hi mate, what is your staking for split stake on fh goals? and what prices do you enter?

    cheers

    Dan

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    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #39447

    Data is still young on my Post COVID FHG filter but after missing so many early goals and checking previous games I've decided to follow @Allan-Birch's idea of using 4 split stakes... Will see how things go... I only have 21 games to date (22 with today's) and whilst no game has ended 0-0 (filter was originally set up to avoid 0-0's) it's still too early to suggest it's profitable laying the HT score/Lay u0.5 goals as a recovery trade.

    James WoodroffeJ 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #39448

    @richard-latimer Ah!!! I was measuring the "Come Back" as a difference... i.e. Home minus Away etc. 👍

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #39449

    One FHG from my filter today;

    Austria 10/06/2020 17:30 - LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #39450

    @richard-latimer Cheers mate will double check my scrape as it only showed 2 Home Teams (Plzen & Porto) with plus 100 & 63 or greater with the comeback... Out of interest do you relay the dog if Fav equalises or just keep laying the dog every time they score until the Fav does... Obviously, or take red if Fav doesn't score

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #39451

    @richard-latimer must just have overlooked them! not sure how. Did it a couple days ago i think. Cheers

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #39452

    @martin-futter Hi martin how are these games selected?
    Looks good.

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    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #39453

    @martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    Some ratings picks today! The strong team is highlighted as 'home or away' below. We lay the underdog if they go a goal up and double down in they go two up:

    5:00 PM Plzen v Zlin Home
    5:30 PM Wolfsberger v Hartberg Home
    5:30 PM Grazer v Ried Away
    6:00 PM Wurzburger v Jena Home
    7:15 PM Portimonense v Benfica Away
    7:30 PM Sturm Graz v Salzburg Away
    7:30 PM Legia v Arka Gdynia Home
    9:30 PM Porto v Maritimo Home

    @Alan-Steward, @John-Hurst

    Mine concurs:

    0_1591775853713_029dff68-df50-48a3-acbb-eccfbdf1e592-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? ? 3 Replies Last reply
    0
  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote on last edited by
    #39454

    FHG @ 1.51

    Ceske v Teplice
    LASK Linz v Rapid Vienna
    Sturm Graz v Salzburg

    With the split stake from me today 🙂

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    ? ? 2 Replies Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #39455

    @alan-steward it is literally only the comeback ratings

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #39456

    @richard-latimer What additional criteria do you look for mate other than 100+ ELO?

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #39457

    @john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @martin-futter morning martin, are you just going off the ELO rating now of 100+ difference? i thought the comeback ratings had to be 63+ for home and 70+ for away? when i filtered mine out i didn’t see any picks for today unless ive done it wrong

    There's definitely quite a few @John-Hurst. I'll post up what I have in a bit and it should tally.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #39458

    @john-hurst Thanks for that question mate... I've also been now been checking as you've posted i.e. 63 home come back & 70 away comeback 👍

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #39459
    This post is deleted!
    ? Richard LatimerR 2 Replies Last reply
    0
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    wrote on last edited by
    #39460

    Some ratings picks today! The strong team is highlighted as 'home or away' below. We lay the underdog if they go a goal up and double down in they go two up:

    5:00 PM Plzen v Zlin Home
    5:30 PM Wolfsberger v Hartberg Home
    5:30 PM Grazer v Ried Away
    6:00 PM Wurzburger v Jena Home
    7:15 PM Portimonense v Benfica Away
    7:30 PM Sturm Graz v Salzburg Away
    7:30 PM Legia v Arka Gdynia Home
    9:30 PM Porto v Maritimo Home

    ? Richard LatimerR ? 3 Replies Last reply
    2

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