The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer as some sort of consolation i went off track and made some back on villa lay and then i also backed a late goal in the arsenal game at 2.0. Not desperate trades, just what i saw in play. No research was done. Feel like i have had more success with reading rather than pre match. Thanks for the response by the way.
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@matt-wood appreciate the response- i think honestly a lot of the pros on here must pick up games at random/ what they like the look of. I notice they rarely post what they actually do in a day its more- what i will look at, but from what i have seen a lot of these trades dont even make qualification. Its no criticism of how they work (they dont want to give the good opportunites away and i understand that) just thinking if im meant to watch the games i trade how am i not meant to spend ages trading each day when each game lasts 90 minutes? Unless its one of these things where they know the pre match selections are going to be tradeable/ or they have a back up trade if it doesnt meet original strategy. Im about break even in 4 weeks or so doing this. I desperately want this to work but im seeing no correlation between the filter results and the games in play as of yet.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Whinging t**t warning Getting a bit lost/confused with everything at the moment. So i had a shortlist of 11 games yesterday- only one qualified for LTD/LCS and it lost (salzburg). It has been recommended to only do a few trades (think i saw someone mention any more than 8 a day is too much) How if barely any are qualifying am i meant to make any money doing this? Have also seen people say its important to watch games but then have also said not to spend too much time trading each day? I watched the salzburg game yesterday and thought thats a great trade around 78th minuted backing another goal. But then I am told that it wasn’t and the price was too high? feel like i cant do anything right at the moment. followed the in play/ pre match and watched the full game which looked like there was going to be a goal but then it didn’t come (it happens).
So much time is being wasted at the moment using filters/researching and it all seems a little pointless if I’m honest. I had much more success doing it manually using soccerstats and picking games i liked the look of. This isn’t a criticism of the filters cause i know they can be so helpful- i’m just saying at present (the last 5 days or so) they haven’t helped me at all.
Bit lost now and its tempting to go back to what i used to do- pre match on soccerSTATS and then trade what i see. Feeling very meh right now about all this
@john-hurst
By the way, I feel your pain. 10+ years of scratching around and onlynow do I feel I'm starting to come up with a few of my own answers.
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@matt-wood I’m going to do a write up for people to use before entering trades. I think there is too much getting in at the wrong stage of the season or for example first games back after a break. I have mentioned this in the daily email today.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Whinging t**t warning Getting a bit lost/confused with everything at the moment. So i had a shortlist of 11 games yesterday- only one qualified for LTD/LCS and it lost (salzburg). It has been recommended to only do a few trades (think i saw someone mention any more than 8 a day is too much) How if barely any are qualifying am i meant to make any money doing this? Have also seen people say its important to watch games but then have also said not to spend too much time trading each day? I watched the salzburg game yesterday and thought thats a great trade around 78th minuted backing another goal. But then I am told that it wasn’t and the price was too high? feel like i cant do anything right at the moment. followed the in play/ pre match and watched the full game which looked like there was going to be a goal but then it didn’t come (it happens).
So much time is being wasted at the moment using filters/researching and it all seems a little pointless if I’m honest. I had much more success doing it manually using soccerstats and picking games i liked the look of. This isn’t a criticism of the filters cause i know they can be so helpful- i’m just saying at present (the last 5 days or so) they haven’t helped me at all.
Bit lost now and its tempting to go back to what i used to do- pre match on soccerSTATS and then trade what i see. Feeling very meh right now about all thisI know it's after the horse has bolted but I think Darri was right on price in that Salzburg game. Like I've said I use oddsportal.com to mash all the bookies prices together and get an average. That game was 1.08 for a 2nd half goal. I've learnt from what results I have, not to touch it if it's below 1.12 across the board.
Try doing something completely different. Like yesterday, when I had the idea of looking for teams who score loads and could come back from 0-2 down. These weren't red hot favourites. I excluded anything on my winning team lay strat already as didn't want duplicates. Ended up with Zaglebie and Ljungskile (1 of which I traded) who both came back from the dead at crazy low odds.
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@john-hurst I get you on this.
I used to do exactly the same thing using soccerstats and did ok, probably break even overall.
I have had the same feelings as you have had over the last 5 days but when I get them I put it down to me being a newbie and keep telling myself nothing good comes easy.Re less trades in a day. I trust the pros on this and take their word it is better but there is a small part of my brain that shouts "but this puts massive pressure to 'pick' the correct trades" You kinda said this using the Salzburg game from last night (I lost on that too) as you example. Makes it hard, for me at least, to see if I am doing something wrong or it was a freak result.
It helps me to try and force my mind into: pick these games, be conservative (as im a beginner) and if im not confident DONT trade. Then remind myself it doesnt matter if I place no trades on a given day, there will ALWAYS be footy on and there are 1000's of games so there will always be tomorrow.
Using experience from my 'real life' work I have had clients fed up with what they are doing and feeling it is all pointless. 95% of the time I have told them to take a break then come back and reset back to basics, building from there. This worked every time and I can imagine a similar thing would work with trading.
Feel free to shoot me down
just offering my pennys worth of opinion.There is always tomorrow.
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Whinging t**t warning
Getting a bit lost/confused with everything at the moment. So i had a shortlist of 11 games yesterday- only one qualified for LTD/LCS and it lost (salzburg). It has been recommended to only do a few trades (think i saw someone mention any more than 8 a day is too much) How if barely any are qualifying am i meant to make any money doing this? Have also seen people say its important to watch games but then have also said not to spend too much time trading each day? I watched the salzburg game yesterday and thought thats a great trade around 78th minuted backing another goal. But then I am told that it wasn’t and the price was too high? feel like i cant do anything right at the moment. followed the in play/ pre match and watched the full game which looked like there was going to be a goal but then it didn’t come (it happens).
So much time is being wasted at the moment using filters/researching and it all seems a little pointless if I’m honest. I had much more success doing it manually using soccerstats and picking games i liked the look of. This isn’t a criticism of the filters cause i know they can be so helpful- i’m just saying at present (the last 5 days or so) they haven’t helped me at all.
Bit lost now and its tempting to go back to what i used to do- pre match on soccerSTATS and then trade what i see. Feeling very meh right now about all this -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Mladost game looks like a dead rubber
I have found most of the time, pride is enough at home not to lose. Wouldn't back.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer it's a sinking ship
@Martin-Futter
Yeah but in the end it goes box office and makes everyone a shed load of money haha!
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@richard-latimer Mladost game looks like a dead rubber
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@richard-latimer it's a sinking ship
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@allan-birch yeah i fell ya bro it is very hard esp if ur wacthing lol hard to wacth a soccer game hoping nothing will happen
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Finally the 0-2 low risk, high profit strategy I just started testing. I'm only interested in the ones I've put a box around but I've left the others in there for 2 reasons. One, with the lower stats of other games it is helping to point out the stronger selections, Two, these are still on my filter because presently I am not completely sure of what I'm looking for long term:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
And these I will be monitoring for a 2nd half goal. As yesterday I have colour coded all the main criteria I am loooking at:
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These 2 I'm going to be backing from kickoff (as long as I remember). Odds very decent and home teams far more likely to score than away according to the stats. I know this isn't to everyones taste but it's profiting at present. If that suddenly changes then I will look at things again.
It's a very simple idea but iit doesn't bring up a massive amount fo results and if it brings up duplicates with my winning team lay strategy I will remove them. Most of the time this is dealing with a different odds range in any case.
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Only one result recorded for Poland 1 so far and it was a loser. No reason not take it on such limited data though at present.
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I should also say that after losing around 7pts yesterday and pulling back today, I made around 3 of those points back.
Onwards.
