The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-walker yes quite a few games left in that league I believe.
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I was just reading about the danish league to see if lyngby had anything to play for. No idea still
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Slow and steady day today had a couple go against me yesterday but no shortage of football coming up that’s for sure.
Two matches.
Lyndby v Silkborg Denmark 17:00
Huesca v Mirandes Spain LaLiga 2 18:30.Will be monitoring these for FHG and Overs.
Guys, Martin made a good point earlier and a few of us fell victim of it yesterday. With leagues wrapping up be wary of what motivation there is for clubs. I knew Bayern had won the Bundesliga but last night I forgot and laid Mainz 0-2 up forgetting Dortmund had nothing to play for with a CL spot secured also. I know it seems obvious but as leagues come to an end these matches will be more prevalent, and I don’t wanna see other guys have costly brain fades like I did last night.
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst can I suggest one thing mate. Don’t give a toss about how much you’re making especially after 4 weeks. Find your strength and stick to that. It’s not about being able to make money straight away it’s about learning and getting better. Use the private coaching! Utilise that mate but don’t get despondent.
You’ll eventually work out what your strengths and weaknesses are especially as you say you want it to work.Maybe you could liken it to a rubix cube or something else where you have to almost knock it all down and start at the beginning. Go back 1-2 steps in order to jump 10. Rather than keep trying to plough forward and getting nowhere.
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@john-hurst i mean no offence by this but the fact you mention 5 days as your sample point is a worry, especially as there seems to be no allowances made for the fact we are in very weird times where leagues have started up again mid-season.
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Hi Guys can I offer some advice to anyone still finding their feet here. I was the same and this is what worked for me. I am slowly now turning things around and starting to move from the break even phrase to slowly making a profit without the need of doing something silly like over staking on something I would think is a dead cert.
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Cerate a few filters for each strategy and test them over 100 games and record how the filters do. An example is I am wanting a strategy for over 1.5 goals where you enter late in the first half but don't trade out. I have thought if 5 different ways of selecting games for this and used this information to create 5 different filters testing the same strategy.
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You need to record your results in detail including marking all games that didn't qualify due to goal too early as a no trade.
Record the odds at certain entry points. So for my second half goal filter I am testing I will record odds at 60mins. This is when I would be wanting to end the trade at the earliest.
If a red card happens I tend to record the result as a no trade or if I have entered the trade as a traded out win.
Record your profit and loss is the most important thing you need to do so that's why its important to write down on your testing spreadsheet the odds. -
Don't dive in and use the members filters without testing them yourself. They are not guaranteed to make a profit. For example I have been recording results from one persons filter. For 1 week if I traded them I would of been down around £40 based on £10 stakes. A week later I would now be break even. So don't dive in and don't overstake and chase loses for this reason.
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I know members are posting potential trades on a regular basis which is great too see(I find it fun and enjoyable) but please remember not all the members here are successful traders. In fact a lot are still learning and maybe posting trades from filters they haven't tested and don't know if the filter is profitable. So my advice is to enjoy the forum but don't trade the games people post unless you have 100% confidence that the trade is worth doing based on your own research/view.
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Any advice or information provided that you think may affect your trading please double check the information with someone more experienced such as Martin or Ryan. We have all come across the rumours in our time and sometimes a lot of them are just a load of rubbish.
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Some people like to create their own trading page to help with accountability by being totally honest with what they put on their. This is also helpful as members including the professionals can help provide support and advice too you. I have noticed Eammon has done this which is great too see and I am sure other member are chipping in with advice to help him. Another option and I do use this myself is the private coaching with Martin/Ryan. Really useful and they can point you in the different of great resources to help you with particular problems. For example if I was having trouble with bank management they would send me a link to relevant blogs or videos to help me improve this aspect of my trading.
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Once you have:
Tested your filters and recorded your results and are really happy that the filter is profitable in the long run you can then start to use it with small stakes and a small bank. If you cant make it work with a £100 bank you got no chance with a bank more than a £1000.
good luck guys but please follow the advice above as I am certain this is the way you can find success here. Please remember it can take a couple of years to get it right that's if you are constantly learning and improving and not repeating the same mistakes over and over again.
Only a small percentage of traders are successful so please remember this when you are about to jump in at the deep end and start trading without any data that proves your strategies of filters work. Learn the art of trading before diving in and losing your own money in the long run!
Their is so many resources here that the lads provide (learning videos and blogs) and they have the private coaching tool which is fantastic to help you on your journey as well as the excellent filters which if tested and used correctly I am sure will help you select potential games to trade.
I really hope this long boring post is helpful and will help improve at least one members trading experience for the good.
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@john-hurst can I suggest one thing mate. Don’t give a toss about how much you’re making especially after 4 weeks. Find your strength and stick to that. It’s not about being able to make money straight away it’s about learning and getting better. Use the private coaching! Utilise that mate but don’t get despondent.
You’ll eventually work out what your strengths and weaknesses are especially as you say you want it to work. -
@john-hurst i get what your meaning mate. From my own point of view. I use the stats software(filters) to find the games that ill then take a closer look at. Once iv done the pre match research which i believe gives the most edge, making profit is about that edge. Once iv got that then iv an idea of how the game will go and when goals are most likely. Then i wait till inplay. Once i see that the game is staying true to my pre match idea i then see if price is value. This is when there is room for debate and where i believe the pros make profit. Whilst that salzburg game was lively, the price was double what it should have been for the time of the match, LTD price 2.0 at 80 mins is extremely steep, 50% chance of a goal in 10 mins. That was also reflective in the goal markets too far too low a price. For me its when all three work. PRE-INPLAY-PRICE. I did a small guide over on my blog if you want a look mate.
I would also disagree with the pros pick at random or only say what the will watch, because i post every single game i ever get involved in on this thread. Go check i also show a screenshot and share my spreadsheet showing those games and the data of each game. Dont just think any game on the filter will work, there is a bit of further effort to be put in thats the biggest difference for pros. All about how to make your edge bigger, we are all competing for the same markets.
Also dont take what the pros on here do as gospel. We are all wired differently, some have an edge from different angles. Such as match reading, stats or just spotting price. Find what your good at and then double down on it. No one can make someone a pro but they can guide them.
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@james-woodroffe can you pm me your email address and I will add you to the list
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@martin-futter hey mate, for some reason I’ve stopped receiving the daily email. Checked my junk not going there either. Cheers.
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I can see where you are coming from John. I was thinking the same. Last year I built up a small bank from 50 to 1400 and I just looked at games and picked what I felt. I got lucky on some and not on others that's the game. But I was just picking without looking I got desperate and stake and I'll discipline saw me lose a bit of that. Then I joined here and it was overwhelming at first but when you see so many trades going on in here I pretty much got on as much as I could. Stakes all over the place and I lost it all and some. I put a small amount back in knowing I can get it back and go back to beginning. Did well for a little and again I went chasing trying to build knowing that a steady growth even it's a pound a day would be better but when you put so much effort etc in you do feel that a pound a day is not worth it. I want to make it work and I know I can but sadly o think sometimes you got to do the small grind and take them mere small profits to get the bases and the strong habits before you can make it. I finally starting to make filters and trade which ones I want on there but doesn't mean I won't trade something that isn't on it. Like yesterday I saw benfica losing and the stats showed they was unlucky to be behind so went into that second half for benfica to win. It might of gone the other way and they might not have the second but I held out knowing in the game that it was a small loss to take as I was in the right idea for the trade
But on the other hand I went away from the trading plan for the city game and twice should of got out and didn't and it burnt me. That was mistake of the past creeping back.I'm know Im down overall but I feel I have a better understanding now. I need to stop thinking what I had and to say right forget that and start again.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer it will take some doing to beat your rating filter this year! another two crackers last night (if you avoided the dead rubber game).
In that case I'll have try and beat it haha!
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@richard-latimer it will take some doing to beat your rating filter this year! another two crackers last night (if you avoided the dead rubber game).
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst Hey John,
I don't always post the trades I am doing because they are in the members filters. I have used the Split stake & the LTD Betgreen for years (Betgreen one has been nearly 10 years!) Profitable season on season.
What Martin and myself with Adam are working on is getting some challenges created so that you guys can get better at trading with the resources we have.
The first challenge I have planned out and ready to go in the next few weeks.
We are also going to work on a scoring system for grading in play action
Is there anything you think we should be doing that we are not?
You should bring back the annual awards you had in placed when Phil was posting if you remember him. Can't remember his surname but he was an ex cabbie and he won haha
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@john-hurst Hey John,
I don't always post the trades I am doing because they are in the members filters. I have used the Split stake & the LTD Betgreen for years (Betgreen one has been nearly 10 years!) Profitable season on season.
What Martin and myself with Adam are working on is getting some challenges created so that you guys can get better at trading with the resources we have.
The first challenge I have planned out and ready to go in the next few weeks.
We are also going to work on a scoring system for grading in play action
Is there anything you think we should be doing that we are not?
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Any strategy which has a sensible level of football understanding can work. As long as price works in your favour. Test it and see.
Exactly what I'm doing.
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@richard-latimer Any strategy which has a sensible level of football understanding can work. As long as price works in your favour. Test it and see.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood appreciate the response- i think honestly a lot of the pros on here must pick up games at random/ what they like the look of. I notice they rarely post what they actually do in a day its more- what i will look at, but from what i have seen a lot of these trades dont even make qualification. Its no criticism of how they work (they dont want to give the good opportunites away and i understand that) just thinking if im meant to watch the games i trade how am i not meant to spend ages trading each day when each game lasts 90 minutes? Unless its one of these things where they know the pre match selections are going to be tradeable/ or they have a back up trade if it doesnt meet original strategy. Im about break even in 4 weeks or so doing this. I desperately want this to work but im seeing no correlation between the filter results and the games in play as of yet.
I'm no pro and I know I post stuff I'm watching but it has to meet my set definitions before I trade it and record it. I lay all mine out beforehand. Even if I wasn't to trade it I'm recording it for prosperity as need to track the filters.
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Asking this to everyone really. I'm all for keeping it simple, but do you think sometimes we as a group can be guilty of not thinking out of the box enough. You can keep things incredibly simple but also do things a little differently. This is why @waz idea was so refreshing yesterday as he looked for seriously red hot favourites and then looked for a better price on these.
I'm no guru but just last couple of weeks I've been testing a backing strat based on no more than goals scored for and the difference between home and away converted into a price.
Who knows if it goes anywhere long term but I've got 7% yield and I've missed 4 winners. 1 priced @ 4.8. 44 selections so far so closing on half of what can be considered a decent stepping stone.
