The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@martin-futter

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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri I have a filter for FHG’s that I’m watching which throws up mainly Frode’s matches also which is reassuring. It’s more a question of persisting with the split stakes or just setting and forgetting.

Hi mate why not set and forget with split stakes but use odds rather than time for entry points... You could set up 4 entry points of say 1.25, 1.5, 1.75 & 2... Bit of a FHG Fireball?

My filter becomes profitable even if I were to use these odds, just not a good enough ROI.

To date as a straight 1.51 back o0.5 FHG's @allan-birch filter has the best return thus far, but would like more data to measure with his filter

Martin

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

And yes the "Live Module" was difficult to give up but I did find the filtering system difficult to nail down... Having a facility like that here would be the icing on the cake for BTC!

can you pm me more about that as I don't know anything about those places

Martin

@geoff thanks mate good feedback

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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I would be interested in some feedback as to what stats people would want when entering a trade (predominantly a goals or laying the dog one).

Reason being it would be good to add a minimum in-play stats guide for entering selections from our shortlists.

So for example:

On my half time lay the draw filter I like there to be a minimum score of 6 by HT. Shots on target count as 1pt and shots off target count as 0.5pts, so 4 shots on (4pts) and off (2pts) would qualify as a good entry point.

It could be even simpler like 'I want a minimum of 6 on target by HT for example.

So what would you want your minimum stat-lines to be?

When laying the dog? (we are looking more at dominance of strong team here than total shots of both teams)

At 21mins when going for a first half goal?

At HT?

At 65mins when going for a second half goal?

Ok my thoughts:

If dog is leading and I want to lay them all I want is strong team to be showing better stats and look like scoring.

21mins I think going by your score of 6 at HT I would want a score of 3.

HT I like your score of 6 idea, seems to work on the HT ltds anyway!

65 I'm thinking of a simple score of 8 using the above.

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@darri Hi mate, can you remember the criteria for the second goal they used to quote? I know I've got the first one right.

And yes the "Live Module" was difficult to give up but I did find the filtering system difficult to nail down... Having a facility like that here would be the icing on the cake for BTC!

James Woodroffe

@darri I have a filter for FHG’s that I’m watching which throws up mainly Frode’s matches also which is reassuring. It’s more a question of persisting with the split stakes or just setting and forgetting.

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@james-woodroffe i think frodes onto something tho with his and martins new approach. But im building a fhg filter for members on my thread if you fancy keeping updated on how i would approach them. So its not a market to forget just hard to scale.

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@james-woodroffe like i said i dont base on stats only key chances via me watching but if i had to rely on stats id say these for the whole game. If you enter around the time i enter then yes probably per half. But trying to say what id recommend for most strategies others seem to be on.

James Woodroffe

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-woodroffe fhg are the hardest to judge for entry, i prefer them as a set and forget, find a decent strike rate on a broad range of games and then set a price entry and let it match inplay. So setting a 1.52 price and having a 73/74% and just let that run over time. It can become tedious trying to find set criteria for trying to explain your entry with them. I like frode adaptation of them. FHGs are lucrative based on price you get offered, so i see why you would want to be involved. But liquidity is not scalable especially outside of the top 6 leagues. so set and forget with low stakes seems to be best option from my experience.

Cheers mate will take that on board and focus more on my 2nd half trading.

James Woodroffe

@darri is that 4 on target for the half?

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@james-woodroffe fhg are the hardest to judge for entry, i prefer them as a set and forget, find a decent strike rate on a broad range of games and then set a price entry and let it match inplay. So setting a 1.52 price and having a 73/74% and just let that run over time. It can become tedious trying to find set criteria for trying to explain your entry with them. I like frode adaptation of them. FHGs are lucrative based on price you get offered, so i see why you would want to be involved. But liquidity is not scalable especially outside of the top 6 leagues. so set and forget with low stakes seems to be best option from my experience.

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@Martin-Futter what goal profits and trading football do is they have a live module, they have inplay stats like SOT, etc the usual but then they flash up as live alerts. So im on board for this kind of system your talking about. For me i dont look at stats, but i look for key chances, but they both relate. So i would say im looking for if entering looking for a 2nd half goal, id be looking for 4 on target for the fav, and 8 off target for the fav.

I enter later than most, so if i was to drop to earlier id aim for just 4 on 8 off combined. All other inplay stats tend to be judged on the person inputting the data. Hence why watching the match is key. But on pure stats those are what id be after.

James Woodroffe

@alan-steward I’m starting to think the same way but I’m not totally sure yet as to if I fall off FHG’s until football effectively settles again. My thought process is leaning more towards Overs and 2HG’s and maybe that will work for me in regards to improving discipline on not over trading.

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I would be interested in some feedback as to what stats people would want when entering a trade (predominantly a goals or laying the dog one).

Reason being it would be good to add a minimum in-play stats guide for entering selections from our shortlists.

So for example:

On my half time lay the draw filter I like there to be a minimum score of 6 by HT. Shots on target count as 1pt and shots off target count as 0.5pts, so 4 shots on (4pts) and off (2pts) would qualify as a good entry point.

It could be even simpler like 'I want a minimum of 6 on target by HT for example.

So what would you want your minimum stat-lines to be?

When laying the dog? (we are looking more at dominance of strong team here than total shots of both teams)

At 21mins when going for a first half goal?

At HT?

At 65mins when going for a second half goal?

I like the points based system as it would allow for weighting of more important things such as shots on target.

Possession enter into it at all?

So what do off target shots in the box weigh at points wise? Can be just as important if not more important than shots on target. A looped header from a corner can count as a shot on target when in reality it bounced off someone's head and landed comfortably in the keepers arms.

Also, maybe others won't agree, but I find hit the woodwork as even more important than any of those. Keeper was beaten all ends up and only the woodwork saved him. What about a defender blocking on the line? Is there a way to see this?

I do agree with your point and that it would be hard to come up with a 'fits all' points based system. I just liked the idea that it allowed for weighting and then distills everything to one score. Might be be that it is kept simple for the beginners like me.

I'm sure the experienced traders will have their own methods to employ that suit their specific plans. But as a beginner it is hard to know how to refine that until you build up the experience and figure out the way you want to trade.

Martin

@lewis-kershaw said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lewis-kershaw better to have software we can modify Discord like Facebook is owned by another company and therefore the group ends up under their control essentially, what do you like from there that we could add here? we are talking about a forum upgrade at the moment as people have mentioned that is can be hard to navigate, it's funny as that's why we moved from FB originally!

Basically just the instant messaging. Thought it would be good whilst people are trading for real-time info. You could for example only allow pro traders to post so it doesn't get clogged up.

I wonder if we could add a pop up box like the private messages but just have everyone in it

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I would be interested in some feedback as to what stats people would want when entering a trade (predominantly a goals or laying the dog one).

Reason being it would be good to add a minimum in-play stats guide for entering selections from our shortlists.

So for example:

On my half time lay the draw filter I like there to be a minimum score of 6 by HT. Shots on target count as 1pt and shots off target count as 0.5pts, so 4 shots on (4pts) and off (2pts) would qualify as a good entry point.

It could be even simpler like 'I want a minimum of 6 on target by HT for example.

So what would you want your minimum stat-lines to be?

When laying the dog? (we are looking more at dominance of strong team here than total shots of both teams)

At 21mins when going for a first half goal?

At HT?

At 65mins when going for a second half goal?

I like the points based system as it would allow for weighting of more important things such as shots on target.

Possession enter into it at all?

So what do off target shots in the box weigh at points wise? Can be just as important if not more important than shots on target. A looped header from a corner can count as a shot on target when in reality it bounced off someone's head and landed comfortably in the keepers arms.

Also, maybe others won't agree, but I find hit the woodwork as even more important than any of those. Keeper was beaten all ends up and only the woodwork saved him. What about a defender blocking on the line? Is there a way to see this?

Matt Wood

Re the Discord I'm all for keeping everything under the BTC umbrella, best to log in here and have it all here. As @Martin-Futter said better for control too.

Martin

@richard-latimer if you click the thread title in the quote it will take you to the exact post

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lewis-kershaw better to have software we can modify Discord like Facebook is owned by another company and therefore the group ends up under their control essentially, what do you like from there that we could add here? we are talking about a forum upgrade at the moment as people have mentioned that is can be hard to navigate, it's funny as that's why we moved from FB originally!

Just for my tuppence worth if possible it would be good to find a visit posts by specific members through their profile. You can find the post but when you click read more it takes you to the first post on the thread which for this is a looooooooooong time ago.