The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@matt-wood could you not trade out manually mate? or was it just suspended?
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Espanyol v Levante match. Currently 1-1 at HT
nice winner in your first selection Keith in the Leicester match. Great goal to start the day for you mate from Ben Chillwell.
Well its 1-1 now lol as I am typing.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm LTD in the Watford v Leicester match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Goal! 0-1
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Since I stopped backing the ones I'm looking to wait for a lay there have been 6 goals scored in the right direction ffs haha!!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Going to lay the draw on 60mins in the Millwall match
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
This is the danger for me now on pure goals picks. Can honestly not remember seeing so many lifeless games. Some teams just seem completely unmotivated.
I guess really we shouldn't be surprised it's like the start of the season, without friendlies
A fair point. I feel safer tracking goals for now and sticking to laying teams who have some motivation when they fall behind.
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LTD / LCS in the Espanyol v Levante match. Currently 1-1 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@matt-wood will keep you posted on it, yes it'll be more up + down, I'm basically calculating a % chance based on my filters then aiming for a % profit based on that to accumulate returns based on risk, we'll see how it goes I'm definitely not ready to risk cash on it yet!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
This is the danger for me now on pure goals picks. Can honestly not remember seeing so many lifeless games. Some teams just seem completely unmotivated.
I guess really we shouldn't be surprised it's like the start of the season, without friendlies
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@sam-maccuaig This sounds interesting, im guessing, a higher risk but higher reward than my method. But curious to see how your tracking plays out.
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@matt-wood I’m currently messing around with paper trading the 0.5 FHG under from K/O. I’ve done some rough sums and it looks like the odds drift may offset losing a full stake and end up more profitable assuming value pricing, but it’s VERY early days
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This is the danger for me now on pure goals picks. Can honestly not remember seeing so many lifeless games. Some teams just seem completely unmotivated.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The Denmark Superliga relegation group has been duff lately. Seems like they’ve all lost interest? Thought Randers might produce something looking at the stats but the eyes fell asleep watching haha
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All matches of potential interest for me so far, the stronger team has taken the lead. Typical haha!
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@sam-maccuaig 2.5, I'm hoping it will work long term as a nice little but consistent earner. Have a few ideas for tweaks if they are needed later on.
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@matt-wood this is interesting mate, I've messed around with this kind of theta trading a lot but never managed to find value over time. What market are you trading? 1.5?
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Yesterday's Goliath games review:
- Cherno More - Scored within 15 minutes, didn't get on.
- Lausanne - Took the lead, eventually drew. I was having a bath, so I didn't get on this game either.
- Basaksehir - Conceded first, which was great. Was able to back them to win at 3.26 for a 1.2pt profit.
- Young Boys This was a beauty of a game for the strategy. Was able to back Young Boys at 6.4 at some points of the match, how I only managed a 0.9pt profit is beyond me, considering they came back from behind twice.
- Barcelona - Backed them around 30 minutes, they were around evens. Traded out at 0-0, HT. Price virtually didn't move. Backed Barcelona again at 72 minutes, got out around 82 minutes. -0.3pt loss.
There are 15 matches that I have identified today. Out of these 15, I'll probably trade 4. Maybe 5.
My ideal entry is 0-0 at 30 minutes, in which the home side has been piling on the pressure, has more than 60% possession, high attack to dangerous attack ratio and most importantly, shots. I find that the odds might be between 1.4-1.6 during this time period. The risk to reward ratio for riding out the final 15 minutes of a one-sided match can be extremely favourable.
Anyways, this is my approach, in essence it's just backing the dominant team during dominant moments of the match.
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@keith-anderson From a personal point of view as a Leicester fan hope your right as long as its a Leicester win although after that non event of a first half can't see anything other than a 0-0.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@gary-brown rough one I'll summarize here:
We are going to chart some minimum values that we like to have before entering a trade below, what needs to be said though is that these can be adapted. Here are our examples but feel free to try to find what in-play stats suit your entry points.
We work our scoring method out based on shots on and off target. If there is a shot on target it scores one point, if there is a shot off target it scores half a point.
So for example two shots on target and one shot off would be a total score of 2.5 points.
Six shots off target and zero shots on target would score three points and so on.
Here are some popular entry points and the total ‘score’ we would like to see before entering at this point in a game.
Trading ‘Overs’ Markets - Looking for a goal or goals.
Entry points:
22 minutes - A score of 3 or above (ideally 2+ shots on target)
45 mins/HT - A score of 6 or above (ideally 4+ shots on target)
67 mins - A score of 9 or above (ideally 6+ shots on target)Trading ‘Unders’ Markets - Looking for goals not to be scored.
Entry points:
22 minutes - A score of 2 or below (ideally 2 or less shots on target)
45 mins/HT - A score of 4 or below (ideally 4 or less shots on target)thanks Martin this sounds great resource to use to help people judge whether to enter an trade or not. Also easy to record on your results spreadsheets as well if anyone wants to paper trade a system before using it.
