The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
If i have an 81% strike rate how do i figure out how far above the minimum odds i need to make a decent return on a strategy? Is there a sum or a certain percentage i should aim for? Thanks
Well if you know your minimum odds I guess you know 81% amounts to 1.23 back https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html or 5.3 lay http://bettingtools.co.uk/back-lay-equivs.
First I would say I don't look at minimum odds I need for any s/r because of course all games hold different probabilities. My laying strategy is only 70-75% and I'll happily lay 8.6 as an example when Crvena go behind as the probability for them to come back is way higher than something with for example only 110 ELO and 63 comeback.
Ultimately though, if you were to assume they all held true odds value equating to the 81% try saying 81x .3 = 24.3. You're going to lose 19 so you make 5% on 100 bets (assuming you don't have to cash out of course).
81x .4 = 32.40 less your 19 again it's over 10% now. Again this only works if you're not trading out. Gives you somewhere to start though I guess.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Much potential for the winning team lays tomorrow:
I leave home lays alone if the away team has nothing to play for but mathematically these 3 should still be fighting. It's something to be aware of though.
Meppen can still get a promotion playoff place but 9pts off and only 4 games to go they may feel it's not possible.
Salzburg haven't won yet although they are in a very strong position.
LASK Linz should still be fighting to hold on to their Europa League place with only 5pts between them and next lowest in the table:
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If i have an 81% strike rate how do i figure out how far above the minimum odds i need to make a decent return on a strategy? Is there a sum or a certain percentage i should aim for? Thanks
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@richard-latimer noted
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD in the Barca game on 65 mins for 2.48. Always prefer to leave the LTD till later if I can to get a more favourable price, might mean I miss out on some of them but also means I can watch the second half develop and I can make a decision on whether to get involved or not depending on how the half has started.
Not citicising but it's generally frowned upon to post a trade after the fact. If you posted earlier, sorry I didn't see it. Nice trade anyway.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
LTD in the Barca game on 65 mins for 2.48. Always prefer to leave the LTD till later if I can to get a more favourable price, might mean I miss out on some of them but also means I can watch the second half develop and I can make a decision on whether to get involved or not depending on how the half has started.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
any mathmaticians in here? How do you work out ROI if you start with 0 and finish with £6 say?
I'm no mathematician but do you mean yield or ROI?
not sure lol. Just trying to work out the rate of how my strategies are performing
Had to look the other one up as I don't usually use it.
ROI is profit or loss divided by starting bank.
So yield will tell you howmuch you're making for the amount you are risking.
ROI will tell you how much you have in comparison to what you started with. something you can pretty easily tell from looking at your balance haha!
lol
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damn....oh well. Green is good.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Cracking evening 5/5 LTDs and 1 comeback result
Barca still 0-0. Love them to go behind right now haha!
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
any mathmaticians in here? How do you work out ROI if you start with 0 and finish with £6 say?
I'm no mathematician but do you mean yield or ROI?
not sure lol. Just trying to work out the rate of how my strategies are performing
Had to look the other one up as I don't usually use it.
ROI is profit or loss divided by starting bank.
So yield will tell you howmuch you're making for the amount you are risking.
ROI will tell you how much you have in comparison to what you started with. something you can pretty easily tell from looking at your balance haha!
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Cracking evening 5/5 LTDs and 1 comeback result
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
any mathmaticians in here? How do you work out ROI if you start with 0 and finish with £6 say?
I'm no mathematician but do you mean yield or ROI?
not sure lol. Just trying to work out the rate of how my strategies are performing
yield is the profit or loss divided by your outlay.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
any mathmaticians in here? How do you work out ROI if you start with 0 and finish with £6 say?
I'm no mathematician but do you mean yield or ROI?
not sure lol. Just trying to work out the rate of how my strategies are performing
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
any mathmaticians in here? How do you work out ROI if you start with 0 and finish with £6 say?
I'm no mathematician but do you mean yield or ROI?
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any mathmaticians in here? How do you work out ROI if you start with 0 and finish with £6 say?
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@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
anyone else thinking heir are some goals coming in spurs game and Barcelona games
third time this week I have typed and a goal. This time I did back overs in spurs game just before I posted. Well going for over 1.5 in Barcelona I think.
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anyone else thinking heir are some goals coming in spurs game and Barcelona games
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Crap night lo 0.5pts red thanks to Leicester unable to score and no green @ Thun... Ah well onwards & upwards... Enjoy the rest of your evening
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@james-woodroffe i took the loss when thun scored. Didnt want the stress of it
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LTD Extremadura vs Zaragoza
