The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-futter possibly but then again we will be without Henderson, Egan and O’Connell in defence. Unless we find the same intensity that’s carried us through the first bit of the season I can’t see us getting much tonight.
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@matthew-biggins One of my good friends always used to bet against Man Utd (despite being a fan) in the big games for similar reasons. He used to say if they win I'm happy, if they lose I make money, so I'm happy.
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@keith-anderson Speaking as a Sheff U fan, I’d be tempted to go Man U -1 if our last 2 performances are anything to go by.
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todays potentials -
@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
If anybody watched my video yesterday where I did the pre game research and spoke through that I have detailed a game here I left alone and why, this is me explaining what I looked at when the game was at HT
this is fantastic Ryan. Just what the doctor ordered.
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Man United are 1/2 tonight. A good price. I thought they were unlucky not to beat Spurs. Sheffield United have been awful. They dont have a big squad, which doesn’t help, this is their 3rd game in 7 days.
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If anybody watched my video yesterday where I did the pre game research and spoke through that I have detailed a game here I left alone and why, this is me explaining what I looked at when the game was at HT
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah fair enough mate. Sometimes life gets in the way and I guess we don’t have to post every trade, I know I don’t but then sometimes it’s hard to get on and say “great night tonight happy with 2 points” and people go hey! He only posted 1 trade and he lost! I just read Matts post as an outline of how he goes about his LTD trades. I also get what you’re saying mate about how guys on other sites could billy big balls themselves up by just constantly posting after the fact. Until tomorrow or today I should say.
You're completely right. The only thing I would say is that's why I try and post an outline of what I'm looking at the next day and what I need to happen for it to be a trade. There are many times I can't post again the next day and I've said as much actually the other day.
I needed to address a slump and posting each trade at the time wasn't the best way to do it.
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@richard-latimer yeah fair enough mate. Sometimes life gets in the way and I guess we don’t have to post every trade, I know I don’t but then sometimes it’s hard to get on and say “great night tonight happy with 2 points” and people go hey! He only posted 1 trade and he lost! I just read Matts post as an outline of how he goes about his LTD trades. I also get what you’re saying mate about how guys on other sites could billy big balls themselves up by just constantly posting after the fact. Until tomorrow or today I should say.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i know it probably makes perfect sense what you said, but i have zero idea what your on about
im basic as anything. I think based on what @Martin-Walker said if he has a 81% strike rate with min odds of 1.5 then with a £100 bank, using 1% stakes(£1) every 100 trades,He would be making £21.50 pre commission. So would be making 21.5% bank growth every 1%(£1) of the bank staked. So if he staked 2%(£2) he would make 43% (£43)
Yeah fair play. I didn't know he was taking min 1.5 at the time though haha!
Of course yield is yield so if he makes 21% yield from 1% that would still be 21% yield from staking 2% haha! ROI though being p/l against starting bank that would make sense.
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If either of these go 0-2 I'll lay away. If they get one back I'll remove liability and leave it in for the potential big pay off:
Totally forgot to post the actual games before.
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@richard-latimer i know it probably makes perfect sense what you said, but i have zero idea what your on about
im basic as anything. I think based on what @Martin-Walker said if he has a 81% strike rate with min odds of 1.5 then with a £100 bank, using 1% stakes(£1) every 100 trades,He would be making £21.50 pre commission. So would be making 21.5% bank growth every 1%(£1) of the bank staked. So if he staked 2%(£2) he would make 43% (£43)
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer not trying to sound facetious mate but why is it frowned upon? If you see an opportunity present itself during play is it best not to make the trade and then post? I get posting here at HT with what we plan to do but surely if an opportunity presents in play then you get on. If you then post after the fact the why you did the trade why is that frowned upon? I’m guilty of doing this myself but I’ve also posted after the fact when I’ve lost trades. Again just curious
.Yeah of course. Wasn't there a bit of a gap between the trade and the post is all. The trade was made 65th minute and Barca scored 71st. I know what you mean, but in some places after timing is rife. I've been guilty of it myself when I'm tracking stuff for sure. Didn't manage to post in time, life got in the way but think people would still be interested in the data.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer not trying to sound facetious mate but why is it frowned upon? If you see an opportunity present itself during play is it best not to make the trade and then post? I get posting here at HT with what we plan to do but surely if an opportunity presents in play then you get on. If you then post after the fact the why you did the trade why is that frowned upon? I’m guilty of doing this myself but I’ve also posted after the fact when I’ve lost trades. Again just curious
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If away take the lead here I will lay away but crucially I will be out at 1-1. If it goes 0-2 I will re-lay but the first goal back will be aa cash out.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer thanks for this, i never take below 1.5 so already quite a bit over minimum. I dont have enough data to confirm this strike rate yet i just needed to learn the maths behind it. 8 months in and i dont know basic trading maths lol
i talk a good game but only just starting to see what I consider can be longterm profit after over 10yrs of being interested in betting. It's a slow learn haha!
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@richard-latimer thanks for this, i never take below 1.5 so already quite a bit over minimum. I dont have enough data to confirm this strike rate yet i just needed to learn the maths behind it. 8 months in and i dont know basic trading maths lol
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
If i have an 81% strike rate how do i figure out how far above the minimum odds i need to make a decent return on a strategy? Is there a sum or a certain percentage i should aim for? Thanks
Well if you know your minimum odds I guess you know 81% amounts to 1.23 back https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html or 5.3 lay http://bettingtools.co.uk/back-lay-equivs.
First I would say I don't look at minimum odds I need for any s/r because of course all games hold different probabilities. My laying strategy is only 70-75% and I'll happily lay 8.6 as an example when Crvena go behind as the probability for them to come back is way higher than something with for example only 110 ELO and 63 comeback.
Ultimately though, if you were to assume they all held true odds value equating to the 81% try saying 81x .3 = 24.3. You're going to lose 19 so you make 5% on 100 bets (assuming you don't have to cash out of course).
81x .4 = 32.40 less your 19 again it's over 10% now. Again this only works if you're not trading out. Gives you somewhere to start though I guess.
The other thing to consider is that when you higher your minimum odds limit how does this affect your strike rate?
