The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-walker Ive been laying at 2.0 which matches around 73 so that ties in with your figures and the SR is decent. I may switch it to 70' though and do it like yours, so liability remains the same
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I posted a few figures for one of my filters after 100 games, im just posting an update after 173 games. I notice a few people are struggling with the crappy variance at the minute and it seems are a bit unsure which way to proceed. The figures below are unedited from my filter, so they do include games in which you wouldnt enter a trade (red cards, last game of the season with nothing to play for and so on). I dont put too much emphasis on in-play stats or current scoreline, its more systematic from me
How i trade these:
- Lay 2+ SH goals on 50'. There's a big drop in odds from 46-50 on this market which i believe offsets the slight reduction in SR. Sometimes it drops from 2.4-2.1/2.2 in just a few minutes. I lay this for 1 pt. The SR has dropped slightly this month but so has the odds. Last months odds averaged 2.2, this month its 1.85
- LCS at 3.0 for 1/2 pt then LCS again at 2.0 for 1pt. Overall max circa 3pts liability (obviously this can be halved easily)
- Im looking at O2.5 on these on 10' and 30'. Although the SR isnt amazing, ive found that if there isnt a goal by HT then it appears to make sense to cashout as in that situation its very rare to hit O2.5 in the SH. Obviously i can combine this with the above trades in some way or cashout in the SH after a goal but im doing it as standalone test to see how it fares
Im going to keep collating the data and will periodically look at how its going, whether the stats still play out, whether there's additional angles etc etc. This is my main filter to trade at the minute and has returned 16pts so far this month
If anyone is interested the feel free to copy the filter, paper test it for a while and see how it goes, no need to dive straight in. Its quite systematic so i dont need to consider too much in-play, just whether i perceive the value to be there based on odds
EDIT - Please note that the figures are based on there being no goal in that half of play already. So if doing 2+ SH then it has to be the same score as HT, and likewise if doing the LCS
That's outstanding, what's it called? Would love to check it out!
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@xhenis-tora I do like that kind of trade to be honest, especially after following Ryans. My frustration came though with watching so many games but then not getting involved due to a goal. I plan on doing the SH trades anyway but as my main filter i dont mind having 4-5% liability on these. Eventually ill have either some sort of O2.5 or the O1.5 split stake, im not settled on that part yet
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@lee-woodman i back the next overs for 2 points. Generally over 1.8 at 70 mins. Would be a great return on 71% strike rate
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@martin-walker I never used to favour drip staking but i saw that figure last time and it looked appealing so ive started to lean towards splitting up my LCS
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@lee-woodman thnx a lot...i think that is your best strategy watching your post
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@lee-woodman with my own style of trading i find your 1 + goal after 70 stat very interesting. 71% is very good there
What period of time were the 73 trades over for that stat?
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@xhenis-tora Ryan has a split stake strategy whereby you enter the O1.5 market on 30' if no goal. If theres a goal you then cashout but if theres no goal by 50' you enter the same market again. If theres a goal you then cashout but if no goal comes before 70', ie its still 0-0 at 70' then you cashout for a loss. I like the trade and i know a few others do so i wanted to see how it fared on this filter
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@lee-woodman can you explane me pls that first goal 30-70??
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@martin-futter i think is a good strategy and about dundalk yesterday live statistick was not good i didnt trade that at all
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I posted a few figures for one of my filters after 100 games, im just posting an update after 173 games. I notice a few people are struggling with the crappy variance at the minute and it seems are a bit unsure which way to proceed. The figures below are unedited from my filter, so they do include games in which you wouldnt enter a trade (red cards, last game of the season with nothing to play for and so on). I dont put too much emphasis on in-play stats or current scoreline, its more systematic from me
How i trade these:
- Lay 2+ SH goals on 50'. There's a big drop in odds from 46-50 on this market which i believe offsets the slight reduction in SR. Sometimes it drops from 2.4-2.1/2.2 in just a few minutes. I lay this for 1 pt. The SR has dropped slightly this month but so has the odds. Last months odds averaged 2.2, this month its 1.85
- LCS at 3.0 for 1/2 pt then LCS again at 2.0 for 1pt. Overall max circa 3pts liability (obviously this can be halved easily)
- Im looking at O2.5 on these on 10' and 30'. Although the SR isnt amazing, ive found that if there isnt a goal by HT then it appears to make sense to cashout as in that situation its very rare to hit O2.5 in the SH. Obviously i can combine this with the above trades in some way or cashout in the SH after a goal but im doing it as standalone test to see how it fares
Im going to keep collating the data and will periodically look at how its going, whether the stats still play out, whether there's additional angles etc etc. This is my main filter to trade at the minute and has returned 16pts so far this month
If anyone is interested the feel free to copy the filter, paper test it for a while and see how it goes, no need to dive straight in. Its quite systematic so i dont need to consider too much in-play, just whether i perceive the value to be there based on odds
EDIT - Please note that the figures are based on there being no goal in that half of play already. So if doing 2+ SH then it has to be the same score as HT, and likewise if doing the LCS
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ELO Strategy for some perspective (which seems to have been lost yesterday), the email ones went 1/2 yesterday hardly a disaster. Also, the single loser in Ireland missed a pen to equalise.
That loss ended a run of 6 wins in a row and 20 wins out of 23 games this month!
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@chris-osborne sorry i just open the chat...what strategy are you talking about?
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@michael-ellner said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer It was a horrible day but that doesn't stop it being a fantastic profitable system because it is and has proven to be over the last year.
Variance is a bitch but it's always going to rear it's ugly head and we just have to learn to live with it as best we can.
Looking back we had a nasty little run 21-27 September 2019 but recovered and powered back to profit just as we will this time.
The only question in my mind is maybe some of the lower leagues may be a bit less reliable and although profitable might add to the variance slightly so I might look at that but otherwise I'll just be carrying on as normal as we're closer to our next winning run now.@Richard-Latimer couldn't agree more with what others have said, its a good strategy which alot of people have got behind. It was profitiable in July, a run of a few losing trades particularly at the moment is not going to turn it into a bad strategy over night.
I don't use all of them far from it probably works out at less than half and I've noticed that in alot of instances, the losing trades are from leagues that have only just started on the few that I've got involved in anyway.
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@richard-latimer It was a horrible day but that doesn't stop it being a fantastic profitable system because it is and has proven to be over the last year.
Variance is a bitch but it's always going to rear it's ugly head and we just have to learn to live with it as best we can.
Looking back we had a nasty little run 21-27 September 2019 but recovered and powered back to profit just as we will this time.
The only question in my mind is maybe some of the lower leagues may be a bit less reliable and although profitable might add to the variance slightly so I might look at that but otherwise I'll just be carrying on as normal as we're closer to our next winning run now. -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I really don't know what to think about today. You'd think this one was safe as houses but yet again, against the run of play, it's 0-2.
Today really testing my faith in these. Los Angeles massive home favourites ffs!
Maybe it's like a delayed Covid reaction or something. Easily the worst day since I've been doing it well over a year ago. Not just the amount of losses but the odds involved. I know statistically this has to happen but it's still a real kick in the teeth just as things were finally going well.
This is 4 losses now. 2x over 3.0, and 2x over 2.5. To make matters worse the relay hasn't salvaged a single penny today and it's not going to here either. Best hope is an improbable comeback to 2-2.
Sorry anyone who got caught AGAIN!!!!
No apologies needed. People make their own choice about following or not. For myself, I dont follow every single one of your ELOs, I have noticed a dip in August. However, overall for this month still up 4.25pts.
I only joined BTC post covid so dont know what it was like before but is it possible that the post covid era (no crowds etc) has given it an artificial boost?
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@stuart-capstick spot on and remember, if your strategy won every single time there would be no such thing as Betfair, as no-one would offer you odds on a sure thing. So variance is important to keeping the game alive! Just got to make sure the really bad variance is rare, which clearly it is.
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Richard, first up, I don't follow the ELO trades. Not because they aren't good; they clearly are, looking at the results sheet you have. I have my own systems and they take up all my time and energy.
Stick with it, people. It will work well long term. Days like yesterday are entirely "normal". Just the "slings and arrows of outrageous fortune".
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@richard-latimer it's probably just variance mate, not done the results of the email ones but will be interesting to see how they compare. your system is still well up overall, I really wouldn't be that upset mate.
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I'm just glad that day is over. It can absolutely do one!!! 7pts lost on the ELO roughly in one stinking day!