The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Morning guys i just noticed that the odds for the Mito V Nagasaki match are quite strange.Nagasaki are 1st but the odds are 3.75 at the mo anyone got any ideas?
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
ELO Strategy for some perspective (which seems to have been lost yesterday), the email ones went 1/2 yesterday hardly a disaster. Also, the single loser in Ireland missed a pen to equalise.
That loss ended a run of 6 wins in a row and 20 wins out of 23 games this month!
@Martin-Futter I thought TPS was on the email?
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@lee-woodman yep it’s worked for me well over the years - I’ve kept it really simple and it’s always been very good for me!
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@ryan-carruthers Yes...we must go back there, it's a cracking place for sure
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@ryan-carruthers It is, ive cut out some of the other stuff i was doing and ive concentrated more on this. I feel its better to have 2 or 3 trades from one filter at the minute than spreading it thinly over 3 different filters. Yes im happy with 16 pts!
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@alan-steward yessss I know this place, oh man!
I think I need to get back there ASAP - Curbar Edge for me next
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward love it there, that’s my favourite place to get to.
Peak Tavern I believe was my go to pub after walking... Jane enjoyed some "Posh Gin" in there... About the start of the recent Gin revolution lol
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@lee-woodman thnx a lot
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@alan-steward love it there, that’s my favourite place to get to.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward I’m Lincoln about an hour and a bit from most of the areas I love in the peaks
Yeah we had a week in Castleton about 4 years back... Walking the Great Ridge (picnic on top of Mam Tor), Derwent edge (could just about see some big chimneys across the Moor which I believe is almost Sheffield)... Excellent walks all around there
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@xhenis-tora Ive been conscious about removing leagues based on results alone because if you then look at that league your data sample becomes really small and you could be looking at just a downturn in that league
So if you had 200 results and that was spread over 10 leagues then each league has say 20 results. If you then remove because its performed badly over those 20 results then i consider it to be too little information to remove. Any league which tends to have goals, Norway, China, Sweden etc will automatically come up on the filter more anyway
Having said that, i have removed a lot of the lower leagues and countries which i know are very poor football leagues for trading but i havent been excessive in that and i do get results for Estonia, Lithuania etc which i will trade IF the market is stable
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@lee-woodman nicely done mate!! 16 points
all you need that! -
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I posted a few figures for one of my filters after 100 games, im just posting an update after 173 games. I notice a few people are struggling with the crappy variance at the minute and it seems are a bit unsure which way to proceed. The figures below are unedited from my filter, so they do include games in which you wouldnt enter a trade (red cards, last game of the season with nothing to play for and so on). I dont put too much emphasis on in-play stats or current scoreline, its more systematic from me
How i trade these:
- Lay 2+ SH goals on 50'. There's a big drop in odds from 46-50 on this market which i believe offsets the slight reduction in SR. Sometimes it drops from 2.4-2.1/2.2 in just a few minutes. I lay this for 1 pt. The SR has dropped slightly this month but so has the odds. Last months odds averaged 2.2, this month its 1.85
- LCS at 3.0 for 1/2 pt then LCS again at 2.0 for 1pt. Overall max circa 3pts liability (obviously this can be halved easily)
- Im looking at O2.5 on these on 10' and 30'. Although the SR isnt amazing, ive found that if there isnt a goal by HT then it appears to make sense to cashout as in that situation its very rare to hit O2.5 in the SH. Obviously i can combine this with the above trades in some way or cashout in the SH after a goal but im doing it as standalone test to see how it fares
Im going to keep collating the data and will periodically look at how its going, whether the stats still play out, whether there's additional angles etc etc. This is my main filter to trade at the minute and has returned 16pts so far this month
If anyone is interested the feel free to copy the filter, paper test it for a while and see how it goes, no need to dive straight in. Its quite systematic so i dont need to consider too much in-play, just whether i perceive the value to be there based on odds
EDIT - Please note that the figures are based on there being no goal in that half of play already. So if doing 2+ SH then it has to be the same score as HT, and likewise if doing the LCS
NICE , when i trade the sh goals ht 1-0/0-1 i lay under 2.5 @1.8 then again @1.4 no goals then lay u 1.5 @ 1.8 and 1.4 when i need to do
i believe my strikerate over 2.5 is 60% but i only enter above 2.2 value
aBOUT cashout ht 0-0 for loss , y can but in all my games i am still in the profits small one, because when i have 2 sh goals before the 70 th min still small profit
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@lee-woodman im getting high 60’s strike rate and its returning a great profit so 73 will be brilliant i imagine
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@lee-woodman yes
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@xhenis-tora said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
do you have any favorite championship about this strategy or can you give me any tip?
You mean a particular league?
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I posted a few figures for one of my filters after 100 games, im just posting an update after 173 games. I notice a few people are struggling with the crappy variance at the minute and it seems are a bit unsure which way to proceed. The figures below are unedited from my filter, so they do include games in which you wouldnt enter a trade (red cards, last game of the season with nothing to play for and so on). I dont put too much emphasis on in-play stats or current scoreline, its more systematic from me
How i trade these:
- Lay 2+ SH goals on 50'. There's a big drop in odds from 46-50 on this market which i believe offsets the slight reduction in SR. Sometimes it drops from 2.4-2.1/2.2 in just a few minutes. I lay this for 1 pt. The SR has dropped slightly this month but so has the odds. Last months odds averaged 2.2, this month its 1.85
- LCS at 3.0 for 1/2 pt then LCS again at 2.0 for 1pt. Overall max circa 3pts liability (obviously this can be halved easily)
- Im looking at O2.5 on these on 10' and 30'. Although the SR isnt amazing, ive found that if there isnt a goal by HT then it appears to make sense to cashout as in that situation its very rare to hit O2.5 in the SH. Obviously i can combine this with the above trades in some way or cashout in the SH after a goal but im doing it as standalone test to see how it fares
Im going to keep collating the data and will periodically look at how its going, whether the stats still play out, whether there's additional angles etc etc. This is my main filter to trade at the minute and has returned 16pts so far this month
If anyone is interested the feel free to copy the filter, paper test it for a while and see how it goes, no need to dive straight in. Its quite systematic so i dont need to consider too much in-play, just whether i perceive the value to be there based on odds
EDIT - Please note that the figures are based on there being no goal in that half of play already. So if doing 2+ SH then it has to be the same score as HT, and likewise if doing the LCS
Ha knight for sharing this, interesting to see how split different approaches can lead to greater gain.
How can I find your filter?
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@martin-futter On my filters, which i presume you can see, its called 'SH (10 Matches)'
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@lee-woodman do you have any favorite championship about this strategy or can you give me any tip?
