The BTC Football Trading Thread

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Leipzig v Stuttgart match. 1-0 at HT

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Also Lay Under 1.5 Den Bosch

2-1

Done for the night

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Bologna v Spezia match. 1-0 at HT

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Misseed this one pre match but getting in @ HT. Lay Under 1.5 Besiktas.

2-0

Richard Latimer

Also Lay Under 1.5 Den Bosch

Richard Latimer

Misseed this one pre match but getting in @ HT. Lay Under 1.5 Besiktas.

Mark Maguire

Among mine tonight will be

LTD

Zwolle vs Oss (Will need odds to come in)
Leipzig vs Stuttgart

Both will be 01.5

Leipzig also a FHG

02.5 Split stakes (out after 60 mins if no goal)

Den Bosch vs Maastricht
Cove Rangers vs Ayr

Den Bosch will also be FHG

Mark Maguire

@Martin Comes with the usual caveats and sods law warnings

Martin

@mark-maguire amazing analysis thanks

Mark Maguire

@Martin hi mate interesting that two of those come up in my overs filters but not in LTD .. of which one is more favourable...

From my stats:

ELO Ratings my odds:

Cove Rangers vs Ayr .. Odds Home 3.33 (Betfair 3.1) Away 2.44 (2.3) Draw 3.45 (3.75)

Goals Stats etc : Score projection 2-2, 71% (1.52) O2.5 , 88% 01.5 (1.22) 87% (1.24) FHG

I see these Stats as positive for the Overs and would probably be tempted to LTD based on early goals and out.

Lorient vs Rennes Odds Home 4.55 (4.1) Away 2.08 (2.04) Draw 3.33 (3.65)

Goals Stats .. Score 1-1 02.5 54% (1.98) O1.5 78% (1.39) FHG 84% (1.28)

This one I will be cautious on overs and looks tight for LTD to me.

Lecce vs Salertinana Odds Home 1.69 (1.85) Away 5 (5.35) Draw 4.76 (3.65)

Draw looks good value to lay!!!

Scores .. Projected Score 2-1 O2.5 61% (1.77) 01.5 83% (1.3) FHG 93% (1.6)

I Like this last one the best as the FHG, draw odds and ELO all stack up for me. Followed by the Cove Rangers game.. most cautious about the French game so watch it be a thrashing

PS Just read you were talking set and forget - still like the Lecce game of the three .. the two French teams are doing really well this season overall and could go either way for me.

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@andrew-shipley

The SR for a first half goal is quite high with this strategy so another test to check prices and results would be on that market and looking for odds over 1.4

Martin

@mark-maguire got these for LTD set & forget today, interested in your thoughts...

Scotland Championship 27/01/2023 19:45:00 Cove Rangers Ayr 3.8
Italy Serie A 27/01/2023 19:45:00 Lecce Salernitana 3.6
France Ligue 1 27/01/2023 20:00:00 Lorient Rennes 3.7

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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

So an Ex - Member of BTC contacted me by private message on Twitter asking me if I was going for a SHG in the Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar match this morning. It was 0-0 at HT. I told him I was. He normally doesn't go for a SHG if it's 0-0 at HT. He showed me the goal scoring stats. They were dire for both teams (which is the reason why I didn't lay Under 1.5 Goals). I showed him the 0-0 FT scoreline has only occurred in 3.85% of A-League matches this season and I thought that the odds offered at 1.31 at HT were quite generous considering.

I always find it fascinating how we each interpret stats.

and 4 goals later everyone is happy

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@martin ok but thought it would be obvious, after 70 mins the odds on over 0.5 would shorten by a lesser amount than draw but you get a far better return on over 0.5 than greening on match odds?

Andrew Bannister

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

So an Ex - Member of BTC contacted me by private message on Twitter asking me if I was going for a SHG in the Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar match this morning. It was 0-0 at HT. I told him I was. He normally doesn't go for a SHG if it's 0-0 at HT. He showed me the goal scoring stats. They were dire for both teams (which is the reason why I didn't lay Under 1.5 Goals). I showed him the 0-0 FT scoreline has only occurred in 3.85% of A-League matches this season and I thought that the odds offered at 1.31 at HT were quite generous considering.

I always find it fascinating how we each interpret stats.

I was on the U3.5 set and forget for this. Saw ht score and thought everything was going to plan.
What were the odds for 4 second half goals I wonder??
These last minute goals are killing the U3.5 at the moment.

Mark Maguire

@keith-anderson love that stat .. interesting for me.. I use the league averages home and away pre match in terms of average goals per team.. but havent thus far used a league stat for probability of 0-0 for example.. got me thinking now ..

Mark Maguire

Ajax have reacted to the fact that they are on the naughty step by sacking their manager.. I have told them I will take some time to reconsider:

Akiva Anderson

So an Ex - Member of BTC contacted me by private message on Twitter asking me if I was going for a SHG in the Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar match this morning. It was 0-0 at HT. I told him I was. He normally doesn't go for a SHG if it's 0-0 at HT. He showed me the goal scoring stats. They were dire for both teams (which is the reason why I didn't lay Under 1.5 Goals). I showed him the 0-0 FT scoreline has only occurred in 3.85% of A-League matches this season and I thought that the odds offered at 1.31 at HT were quite generous considering.

I always find it fascinating how we each interpret stats.

Mark Maguire

Ajax are on the naughty step with their form of late - didnt trade the LTD in the end because odds were never attractive enough - sometimes a no trade is a win - both selections ok on 01.5

Two on the LTD filter but odds will be prohibitive so wont be in at the start on either ..will wait and see .

Both are 01.5 trades too but again the odds wont be great - will drip stake.

Ajax vs Volendam no trade on LTD .. Green on 01.5
Ferreira vs Benfica

Ajax form contradicts the stats (which predict a 5-0 win) - if they dont win its a record winless streak for Ajax since the 60's. Incentive enough for players to get their a@ses into gear?

Its a FHG trade as well but caution is the word of the day with staking and in play action... will review it all in the hour before kick off and decide whether to trade based on team news etc.:cross_mark: Ajax on the naughty step

Ryan

@andrew-shipley I've noticed odds on the o.5 are pretty low, you might want to test entering it at 20/25 mins though that might be an option.