The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ben-dobie so you always back the next, next overs market
Yeah you basically backing 2 goals in H2
sorry yeah thats the more obvious way of putting it lol man im thick sometimes.
-
Average goal time of 64 mins. Which will be 1.51 for quite a few of those games probably 3/4 will hit that at that point. Maybe i should be backing the next, next over or lumping at 1.51 instead of split staking it.
-
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ben-dobie so you always back the next, next overs market
Yeah you basically backing 2 goals in H2
-
@john-hurst I haven't yet mate but have watched the live trades on UFT, a goal in that window (70 - 79) I think get's you about 70% of your stake in profit, I think if you take the loss on 80 you lose aboit 40% of your stake. I'm being quite strict with my strat at the minute of laying next overs @ 3.00 and then 2.24 if still lively which is around 60/65 & 70 but I'm gonna give the Fireball Reloaded a go at some point once the bank is at a point where I'm happy to experiment with small stakes on something new.
-
@ben-dobie so you always back the next, next overs market
-
@ben-dobie does sound interesting that mate, have you done it yourself?
-
@john-hurst just looked on down detector looks like certain areas
-
@john-hurst its quite good if goals come at the right time....
Say it's 1-1 at HT and odds on O 3.5 are 2.00
You'd Back O 3.5 as follows splitting stake into 4
25% @ 2.00
25% @ 3.00
25% @ 4.00
25% @ 5.00
All 4 stakes usually matched by 70 ish
You cash out after a goal or take the loss on 80 minutes, it's very profitable if you get the goal between 70 & 79 -
@liam-willis its ok mate for me
-
@ian-wylie typical mate
-
@liam-willis Yes it is for me as well just as I was trying to trade out after the Cowboys got a touchdown back
-
Will have to go through and look at the average goal time. I think it will be around 65 mins which wouldnt get me more than around 1.6 on the next over so its a tough one to call really. I dont want to be greedy putting in 1.7+ cause i know i will miss a fair few. Thanks for the input it may be best tbh to just lump it all in at 1.51. Need to read up on that fireball system. First i have heard of it tbh.
-
is betfair down for anyone else
-
@john-hurst Have you ever tried FireBall Re-Loaded from UFT ?
-
@john-hurst
I've found certain score lines at HT to be much more profitable than others. For example, 0-0 has the lowest likelihood of SHG, while even 2-0 has a far higher probability.
It may be an idea to record roughly when the first SHG arrives and then get an idea of the odds (or record them). Then you really could maximise profit. -
@john-hurst interested in your filter as I’m testing one at the moment. If you’re getting a 90% strike rate I would look at the return you’re getting on a split stake vs just all on 1.51, should be pretty easy to do a comparison on your existing trades. If it’s more just on 1.51 then run with that. It’s also a nice set and forget that doesn’t require much work, at your strike rate it’s guaranteed to make money at 1.51
-
Am wondering how to profit best from sh goals, i have been split staking at 1.51 and 2.02. Have a solid filter running at 90 ish % for at least 1 2h goal. Be nice to have a strategy that i could stick to. Was wondering whether to put full stake on at 1.51, that way i would only need 2/3 to win to break even. Does anyone have a method they use that is better than what has been mentioned? Tia
-
@james-everard Good luck mate, I've found that it's taken me a full year to become more disciplined and it's finally starting to pay off. I used to spend hours trading at weekends and now because I stick to my filter I spend very little time in front of my laptop.
-
I'll say one thing for J2 though, I 'm testing an O 1.5 split stake at the minute and this league seems to present very good value on that market
-
@chris-osborne Yeah I saw that mate, deffo one to be conscious of when their season starts to come to a close...thanks for sharing it
