The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse Sounds like an ok outcome to be honest compared to a lot of traders results today. But yes, definitely a grind!
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What a grind today is! Last Sunday was the same. Yesterday was good but today….not so much!
Half a point down after 21 games this weekend- for me that is the very definition of a grind.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Arsenal's title to lose now
Don't say that haha!!
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Arsenal's title to lose now
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Read good tips on cashout loose at 60.min if no goal for over 2.5 goal. is it any good rule if 1-0 after 70 or 80min?
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Only Spurs....they really are the Spursiest!!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG in the Spurs v City match. 1-0 at HT
Only to Spurs please
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Just the one more for me today:
Lay Over 3.5 CFR Cluj
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
SHG in the Spurs v City match. 1-0 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
I never go in @ odds higher than 5. Between 4.1 and 5 seems like the sweet spot . If odds are higher I’ll just place a order and hope it gets matched…
Yeah you’re right about the lazy odds part. I always look at the last 5 games from both teams.Looking back I can’t believe I didn’t take pre match odds as a factor and just focused solely on if a leagues preforming well or not. Especially given that I have a another LTD strategy with a high strike rate that focuses entirely on a underdog and a clear favourite
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Thank you Nick
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@matthew-harrison great stuff.. I'm always look for commonality in losing trades as I've said before and does the world of good when someone raises a question like you did last night to revisit and check .. the odds one is interesting.. its about that sweet spot for me being comfortable with the liability and what the stats say.. sometimes the higher odds games meaning there's likely a strong favourite .. I will check and double check the opposition (underdog) and form of the favourite because there is an element of lazy odds making with bigger teams in each country and odds being based on reputation .. thats the only note of caution I'd flag.. and I guess it comes down to deciding what is a reasonable liability to accept .. thats down to personal choice I guess
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@matthew-harrison great analysis matey
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@martin-walker ah ok, thanks mate.
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@ross-love 1 divided by percentage as decimal gives your break even
1 / 0.5 = 2
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman same mate sunday is the new saturday lol
Yes.....unfortunately the old saturdays were crap so we dont want a new one
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This post had me going through my spreadsheets all night. I’ve looked at my data for my LTD filters and it’s starting to appearing that the leagues are actually irrelevant. I’ve found a pattern emerging where if odds are below 4 at ko on the draw, more often then not they always end up in a draw. Odds above 4.1 at KO have a ridiculous strike rate.
I’ve been black listing leagues for months but I don’t think I’ve been doing the right thing now haha.
God bless the BTC community. Best around
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Recurring theme from Keith, Emmett etc story of my weekend, 3 disallowed goals in Rostock and 1 in St Pauli. My hate, hate relationship with Bund 2 continues
Goal came late in Rostock but I'm looking at next goal + 1 also both games had red cards
Same here, been on a few games with red cards. Is it just me or has there been an increase in red cards in the first half of games? I been on a few this past week including 1 just now in Thun v Xamax.
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@lee-woodman same mate sunday is the new saturday lol
