The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Some things are far more important than football, all todays games in Turkey cancelled and understandably so.
Doubt there will be any played for a while
Yes will have to be careful with that league.
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@chris-osborne agreed - horrible to see the destruction
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Some things are far more important than football, all todays games in Turkey cancelled and understandably so.
Doubt there will be any played for a while
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@Ryan all joking aside the Liverpool thing is strange .. like his last year at Dortmund? Think its two things .. he hasn't "evolved" the squad and maybe the intensity of his message after falling short in the league tow or three times just eventually falls flat as in "can I really be a@sed working at 120% again this season just to finish second" and his messaging around lack of money = we aren't good enough, too many games over Christmas = we are too tired ..
He's been brilliant but in a business at that level where 1% makes the difference .. he's given the players the chance to drop that 1% in my opinion...
The boy band idea came from Martin's new cool hair on some of the videos.. I am jealous because I haven't got any.
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@mark-maguire Lol love these!
1 - I don't think we ever stop learning, I am still learning now - maybe that's my mindset though? or personality as everyday is a school day for me!
2 - There a lot of legends on here who help and contribute and make this place what it has become
3 - I love the boy band analogy, maybe we should do a spoof 90s boy band style shoot lol also I went to Lincoln v Cambridge and was bored to tears for 90 mins, not even a Bovril at HT could warm me up. Liverpool well..... -
@Ryan ah yes the word journey is a shocker isn't it
However two points to make, well three actually;- I'm still on that journey and nowhere near finished learning.
- Without help from people on here I wouldn't have progressed and have felt all the emotions of feeling useless, like a failure, confused , not knowing what to focus on etc etc .. and people here help you navigate that which is priceless .. read Keiths old stuff for example when he first did the 3% thing its brilliant ..
- Without you and the boy band (Martin and Adam) and your generous sharing of knowledge I'd have given it up. You lot are probably too humble with how good you actually are except I would point out you said Lincoln are rubbish only for them to win 3-0 on Saturday and you've been a little reserved on the Liverpool front lately ?
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@mark-maguire yeh I think I need a price trigger to take emotion out. Thanks Mark, your explanations help a lot.
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@ross-love I think odds wise people use it in a couple of different ways.. a couple of examples would be ..
On an overs strategy (say O1.5 goals) odds of Over 1.5 may start at say 1.2 .. if your strike rate is 85% that would mean odds of 1.26.. people will wait for the odds to get to 1.3 to represent value.
On an LTD strategy where you are exposing your self to risk the odds will work in the opposite way in that you will wait for them to reduce to a level that you are comfortable there is value in the risk you want to take ..
Its all about Value! But you are in the right place if you are trying to find triggers or disciplines to dictate your staking and remove emotions.
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@mark-maguire thanks mark that makes sense. I sometimes struggle to pull the trigger and miss winning trades so I was just trying to figure out if it would be best to have an odds target in mind so if it hits that then I pull the trigger and it takes emotion out. Just trying to figure out whatβs going to be best really and think I need to learn how to narrow my picks down better from my filter. Where did you learn how to work all of that out Mark, I don't suppose you have any links to anything that you would recommend reading or watching?
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@ross-love If I am reading your question correctly you are asking how to convert your strike rate in to odds. On this basis you are assuming your Strike Rate is the probability of your selection being correct.
The way to convert a probability into odds is this;
If the probability is X the formula in excel is =sum(1/(X/100%))
That will give you odds .. so if X = 94% .. odds will come out as 1.06
I then account for the bookmakers "round " to get True odds and subject the number (in this case 1.06) to this formula =sum(1.06x1.075) this will give true odds of 1.14.
The theory is then over all your selections if odds are better than 1.14 - they will represent value on your filter... that in purely probability terms you will earn money over time.
However the note of caution would be that whilst strike rate is a good indicator of where a strategy is, odds on selections will vary significantly and are no guarantee of profit.. its better to measure your SR and your profit.. and use the odds as an "indication of value" in your decision making rather than a "I must trade because the odds are right and so I will earn money" .. if that makes sense??
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@martin-walker sorry Iβm still very new. So based on this break even number, say for example you had a strategy with a 85% strike rate your break even would be 1.176. If you took Β£10 bets and odds at 1.35 you would be theoretically Β£180 up per 100 bets? Or am I completely wrong with this working out?
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@mark-maguire similar day to mine, although I had a couple of losers sprinkled in! though a nice profit overall, things seem to be returning to normal end of Jan and start of Feb or at least so I am finding. Fingers crossed!
Well done mate, stellar work as ever.
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Just back from Marseille vs Nice.. Marseille were very Marseille, Kasper Schmeichel was very Kasper Schmeichel, Aaron Ramsey still has a touch of class.. Alexis Sanchez Missed a sitter and Ross Barkley looks like he's wondering how the hell he ended up in the south of France.. meanwhile back on track for the trades today..
LTD
Cambuur vs Ajax (need odds to come in a bit)
Spezia vs Napoli
Ferencvaros vs Ujpest
St Gilloise vs WaregemFerencvaros and Cambuur will be 01.5
Other 01.5
Brno vs PlzeΕ
Porto vs Vizela02.5 Split Stake
Galatasaray vs Trabzonspor
FHG
Galatasaray
BrnoReassuring that yesterday was a correction rather than a crisis
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2/2 today
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just the one more for me today:
Lay Over 3.5 CFR Cluj
Finished 0-1
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mr-emmet-moorehouse Sounds like an ok outcome to be honest compared to a lot of traders results today. But yes, definitely a grind!
Yeah, the result is fine but the up-and-down nature of the results is exhausting.
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG in the Spurs v City match. 1-0 at HT
Only to Spurs please
First, last and only time you've ever said that?
Yup....Spurs doing us a favour must really pain the fans.....even some players haha!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG in the Spurs v City match. 1-0 at HT
Only to Spurs please
First, last and only time you've ever said that?
