The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hunt said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer got on that one also, funny how you just want to finish on a positive
If it loses that was the moment.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer got on that one also, funny how you just want to finish on a positive
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Been a semi decent evening. Last trade ltd U. De Chile.
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@daniel-mills jinxed it. Everton turned up as soon as I got matched!
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Matched at 1.71 for a first half goal in the Everton - Man Utd game.
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@lee-woodman
If you are looking for fairly recent games from the larger leagues, a good place is:
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Where is the best place to get historical match odds? Its only for games over the last few weeks and if its not betfair odds then a decent bookie will do, im just after a ballpark to determine the favourite and how heavy a favourite they were. Doesnt matter if its manual, theres only 125 games
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Merry Christmas to you all.
I've gained so much from this forum that it's time to give something back:
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Todays SHG picks based on minimum 80% League conversion... Ensure your happy with IPS before entry
Will be looking to enter all games 58mins betfair time with following FH & SH (where noted) criteria met
Minimum 3 SONT (Ideally 4) FH (plus 2 SONT per goal scored)
Minimum 3 corners (ideally 4) FH
Minimum 1 dangerous attack per min played
Minimum 2 SOFFT in SH before 58mins -
Todays FHG picks if anybodys interested;
I will be doing 3 x's Split Stakes on 10mins, 22.5mins & 35mins... Sorry for late post got tied up a bit this morning
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@nick-terracciano ahahah what a mix!! What were the odds?
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@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers Must be getting to me, dreamt about trading cheese and ham crumble
that’s Gold!! -
@nick-terracciano said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers Must be getting to me, dreamt about trading cheese and ham crumble
That made me laugh Nick
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@ryan-carruthers Must be getting to me, dreamt about trading cheese and ham crumble
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Regression to the mean, on the case of teams averaging over 2.4.
It's the only thing I have at the moment
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@steinar-amundsen Yes, the 20th was an absolute disaster. I think if you look back to the 20th and read the treads it was a ridiculous day all round for pretty much everybody and a lot of us were scratching out heads! Im not boasting about my shortlist in any way, im simply sharing my list partly to point out games ive spotted to other people but partly to help me too. I am going to track it more to spot if certain scenarios and situations do better than others and find ways to tweak and improve it
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@lee-woodman Yes good results from your short list, but what happend on the 20th of Desember where you had 14 games that none of them had any goal after 70 min? That was a 14 point loss in 1 day. 1 of the 14 games had a goal after 60 min. Just a bad day in between the profitable days?
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Quite a few games on today and tomorrow!
Theres a few notes ive made below of things to factor in:
All Bolivia Games - If you think we have a heavy schedule look at Bolivia leagues this month. Some teams are playing their 12th game in less than a month and some play games two days running. Often this can lead to one of two things - tired defences (hence goals) or tired attackers (hence reduction in goals). It appears to the former in Bolivia but its something to watch for. Its one of my favourite leagues for late goals at the minute
France - Grenoble vs Troyes - I dont normally trade this league as it seems low scoring but we arent necessarily looking for loads of goals as the market generally reflects this, we are looking for a disproportionate price in relation to the likelihood of a late goal. I will be cautious of this game but would expect a really good price
Italy - Cittadella vs Frosinone - Exactly the same as the France game
Czech - Sigma v Jablonec - I dont often trade this league so not sure on the prices, id expect it to be mid-range, but in the last 5 home games for Sigma and 5 away games for Jablonec there has been a goal post 70' so these are two teams that definitely go for it late on.Not too bad a day on these, 10 out of 12 had a goal after 60' and 9 out of 12 had one after 70'. I think i need to start tracking these shortlists to see if im actually out-performing them by judging them in-play!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm looking at these today:
Hoping for at least 1 SH goal and potentially more.
The coloured numbers are averages for the home teams in each respective half by the way.
I'll be leaving the Sparta game alone. Thus far between 1.6-2.3 on the averages has proven to be the sweet spot. That may be changing as I notice 2.4 is beginning to collect a little more favourable data to back it up. For the time being however, I will just track that one.
Typical. Would have been a nice green by now haha
Just took a look at this and noticed there were no further goals so ultimatelystaying out was the right play. First half play would have been for nothing if only red removed and any further SH play would have been all red. Another in the ave 2.4 goals to home team bracket. It's not looking better at all anymore. In addition to this I looked at how these have faired for FH goals when hoem team ave for entire game is 2.4 and once again it's poor, very very poor.
Data is obviously limited at present in so far as I've only tracked since beginning of Nov but right now all I know is it's very very obvious and I coudn't trust the data above 2.3.
Regression to the mean in the case of the over 2.4 teams?
