The BTC Football Trading Thread

Alastair Todd

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Anyone else finding football near impossible to trade at the moment? Every system i try just fails. Getting to the point just wasting my day trading football , i spend an hour or so going through my filters and getting my lists together checking line ups etc to then enter the trade when inplay stats back up pre match and then still fails. Here is the list of matches that i had today to show you my frustrations

a)I had 3 matches on the lcs strategy (70mins), and 2 had goals in the 68th and 69th mins respectively the third match ended 0-0.
b)I had two late goal matches ( 80mins ) one had no goals the other i forgot to trade and had a 95th min goal
c) had a back the favourite in an Egyptian league match they had 30 shots at goal 75% possession and ended up 0-0 FT
d)I have lay the underdog in the German Bunds ( Mainz) and guess what they beat Leipzig

I have a few matches still left this evening as possibilities which i shall try to stay positive and give a chance if the inplay stats suit but if they continue in the same light i will be looking to take some time away from the football and concentrate on Cricket which i am looking to get into more

James, I feel your pain - it is unbelievably frustrating and bloody annoying at times. On the basis that I probably have no idea what I'm talking about in comparison with the experts on this forum, all I would say is that it really helped me to have fewer matches going on at the same time. It is tempting to load up several matches but then I can't get a decent handle on any of them. I've found that if I cut the number down with one, or at most two, strategies it does help. It's still frustrating though - I follow Ryan's split stake strategy which is really good but today the first match had a goal at 7 minutes and the other one went in at 26 minutes, 4 minutes before I would have entered the trade! Hang in there buddy.

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@james-everard yeh it's been a tough month for me too.

james everard

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard I think trading football is tough generally as the markets are so efficient. I am nearing giving up on SHG as I dont think my game reading skills are good enough, will still track but the games I'm 'sure' about that fit my criteria are all such low odds I dont trade them.

Its a tough thing we are trying to do.

I can't read games, It's too subjective to me, @Alan-Steward has managed to prosper without. I know there is much said about watching the game etc....and I'm sure for some that is essential but he does well enough and says very often about how he just sets his bot up and goes down the allotment haha!

I'm the same, I am moving towards more set and forget for football which makes @stuaart-capstick's strategy ideal.

More than one way to trade and different styles suit different people. @darri's way of trading football is not somethng I couldn't do but all credit to him for making it work.

Not everyone trades based on match reading others are data driven which more suits me

Exactly mate everyone trades differently and what ever you feel most comfortable with . I don't want to get frustrated with trading so a set and forget football system may be beneficial for me also( have Bet Angel) so may have to work out how to set up my late goal strategy on Bet Angel tonight

Matt Wood

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard I've found January to be tough in general tbh, I think the lack of fans is really starting to have an impact, judging from the strange set of results we're seeing in alot of countries right now.

Exactly what i think without fans football players mentality is totally different no pressure on them.

100% agree, you can see players in teams that are losing with 5mins to go, just lazily passing around at the back. If the fans were there they would not be doing that, they would be going for a goal.

james everard

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard I've found January to be tough in general tbh, I think the lack of fans is really starting to have an impact, judging from the strange set of results we're seeing in alot of countries right now.

Exactly what i think without fans football players mentality is totally different no pressure on them.

Matt Wood

@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood ha ha ha, yeah I used to go for a percentage, but it ruined me because I wouldnt get it, stay in too long, then a goal would go in and then I would chase the loss. Vicious little cycle to be in.

Haha true! and it NEVER works staying in Im stubborn though so maybe removing the set % is the best way to go

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@matt-wood ha ha ha, yeah I used to go for a percentage, but it ruined me because I wouldnt get it, stay in too long, then a goal would go in and then I would chase the loss. Vicious little cycle to be in.

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard I think trading football is tough generally as the markets are so efficient. I am nearing giving up on SHG as I dont think my game reading skills are good enough, will still track but the games I'm 'sure' about that fit my criteria are all such low odds I dont trade them.

Its a tough thing we are trying to do.

I can't read games, It's too subjective to me, @Alan-Steward has managed to prosper without. I know there is much said about watching the game etc....and I'm sure for some that is essential but he does well enough and says very often about how he just sets his bot up and goes down the allotment haha!

I'm the same, I am moving towards more set and forget for football which makes @stuaart-capstick's strategy ideal.

More than one way to trade and different styles suit different people. @darri's way of trading football is not somethng I couldn't do but all credit to him for making it work.

Not everyone trades based on match reading others are data driven which more suits me

Matt Wood

@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood I just the UFT snowball method, and basically look for u2.5 to be in the range of 2.04 and 2.98, if it comes up on my list then ill generally look to see if there is a fav or if they are closely matched teams. Generally ill enter if I can watch the game. if my first lay (20 ticks below my back) is taken by the end of the 5th min ill stay in til my 2nd lay is taken and then cash out, or if the game gets hot then ill bail on it and take whatever profit is there. If my 1st lay isn't taken by the end of the 5th min, im out. I don't like to put a percentage of how much I want out of it as I tend to find that it affects my decision making. Its just a case of what has to happen, how do I get in and when do I get out and stick to it (although this month I have been a little naughty, but next month im gonna stick to my exit relentlessly)

Thanks Terry, I think you might be right about the setting a % on it, I have got away with a couple today that were very risky

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@richard-latimer ha ha defiantly, if it becomes easy and boring then your gonna be in the mega bucks

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard I think trading football is tough generally as the markets are so efficient. I am nearing giving up on SHG as I dont think my game reading skills are good enough, will still track but the games I'm 'sure' about that fit my criteria are all such low odds I dont trade them.

Its a tough thing we are trying to do.

I can't read games, It's too subjective to me, @Alan-Steward has managed to prosper without. I know there is much said about watching the game etc....and I'm sure for some that is essential but he does well enough and says very often about how he just sets his bot up and goes down the allotment haha!

Yea what a git! I think what Im seeing is the watching the game method gets a person bigger returns, but they have the skill to do it. Think unitl/if I improve then I need to look at playing numbers and accept smaller returns per trade.

Richard Latimer

Also, it's not meant to be easy. Just remember for all those who succeed you become one of the 5% making profits on betfair haha!

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@matt-wood I just the UFT snowball method, and basically look for u2.5 to be in the range of 2.04 and 2.98, if it comes up on my list then ill generally look to see if there is a fav or if they are closely matched teams. Generally ill enter if I can watch the game. if my first lay (20 ticks below my back) is taken by the end of the 5th min ill stay in til my 2nd lay is taken and then cash out, or if the game gets hot then ill bail on it and take whatever profit is there. If my 1st lay isn't taken by the end of the 5th min, im out. I don't like to put a percentage of how much I want out of it as I tend to find that it affects my decision making. Its just a case of what has to happen, how do I get in and when do I get out and stick to it (although this month I have been a little naughty, but next month im gonna stick to my exit relentlessly)

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard I think trading football is tough generally as the markets are so efficient. I am nearing giving up on SHG as I dont think my game reading skills are good enough, will still track but the games I'm 'sure' about that fit my criteria are all such low odds I dont trade them.

Its a tough thing we are trying to do.

I can't read games, It's too subjective to me, @Alan-Steward has managed to prosper without. I know there is much said about watching the game etc....and I'm sure for some that is essential but he does well enough and says very often about how he just sets his bot up and goes down the allotment haha!

james everard

@matt-wood Glad it is not only me mate very frustrating at the moment.

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Anyone else finding football near impossible to trade at the moment? Every system i try just fails. Getting to the point just wasting my day trading football , i spend an hour or so going through my filters and getting my lists together checking line ups etc to then enter the trade when inplay stats back up pre match and then still fails. Here is the list of matches that i had today to show you my frustrations

a)I had 3 matches on the lcs strategy (70mins), and 2 had goals in the 68th and 69th mins respectively the third match ended 0-0.
b)I had two late goal matches ( 80mins ) one had no goals the other i forgot to trade and had a 95th min goal
c) had a back the favourite in an Egyptian league match they had 30 shots at goal 75% possession and ended up 0-0 FT
d)I have lay the underdog in the German Bunds ( Mainz) and guess what they beat Leipzig

I have a few matches still left this evening as possibilities which i shall try to stay positive and give a chance if the inplay stats suit but if they continue in the same light i will be looking to take some time away from the football and concentrate on Cricket which i am looking to get into more

If I were you I'd completely forget laying the dog at the moment. Crazy times. I sacked mine off ages ago. I'm not trading them currently as I want to papertrade for a bit, put my plans down and see if they work out....but I'm finding quite a decent strike rate when goals are scored before 60th minute.

Also, I'm finding 67th minute (66mins gone) is a very decent entry point as so many goals seem to be scored in that precise minute.

Matches mine, both 2HG filters have average goal time of between 66 and 67.

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@james-everard after updating my late goal filter today I was happy with my 67% s/r (550 games)based upon certain HT scorelines, traded them today to the letter and have had a nightmare, just one of those days I suppose but it’s still annoying

Richard Latimer

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Anyone else finding football near impossible to trade at the moment? Every system i try just fails. Getting to the point just wasting my day trading football , i spend an hour or so going through my filters and getting my lists together checking line ups etc to then enter the trade when inplay stats back up pre match and then still fails. Here is the list of matches that i had today to show you my frustrations

a)I had 3 matches on the lcs strategy (70mins), and 2 had goals in the 68th and 69th mins respectively the third match ended 0-0.
b)I had two late goal matches ( 80mins ) one had no goals the other i forgot to trade and had a 95th min goal
c) had a back the favourite in an Egyptian league match they had 30 shots at goal 75% possession and ended up 0-0 FT
d)I have lay the underdog in the German Bunds ( Mainz) and guess what they beat Leipzig

I have a few matches still left this evening as possibilities which i shall try to stay positive and give a chance if the inplay stats suit but if they continue in the same light i will be looking to take some time away from the football and concentrate on Cricket which i am looking to get into more

If I were you I'd completely forget laying the dog at the moment. Crazy times. I sacked mine off ages ago. I'm not trading them currently as I want to papertrade for a bit, put my plans down and see if they work out....but I'm finding quite a decent strike rate when goals are scored before 60th minute.

Also, I'm finding 67th minute (66mins gone) is a very decent entry point as so many goals seem to be scored in that precise minute.

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@james-everard I've found January to be tough in general tbh, I think the lack of fans is really starting to have an impact, judging from the strange set of results we're seeing in alot of countries right now.

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@matt-wood Definatly mate, I do put lay orders in though prior to KO and not had a problem, its just if you wanna get out!