The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Akiva Anderson]

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson looks like the olympics could be a goldmine for this both men’s and women’s tournaments judging from initial games

They will be. The usual, Lay Under 1.5 goals or back a SHG

[A Former User]

@keith-anderson looks like the olympics could be a goldmine for this both men’s and women’s tournaments judging from initial games

[Akiva Anderson]

Lay Under 1.5 Goals: - Thursday, 22nd July 2021 - @Daniel-Cooper

17:00 - Austria Vienna v Breidablik

Only one today from my list and it's in the Europa League Conference.

I have a lot that aren't on the list, that I fancy for Over 1.5 Goals: The usual, these selections below are not tried and tested.

09:30 - Ivory Coast Olympic v Saudi Arabia Olympic
11:30 - Argentina Olympic v Australia Olympic
12:30 - Brazil Olympic v Germany Olympic
17:00 - Molde v Servette
17:45 - Hammarby v Maribor
19:30 - Gent v Valerenga
19:30 - Larne v AGF
19:45 - Linfield v Borac Banja Luka

The Ivory Coast Olympic v Saudi Arabia Olympic is 1-1 at HT. I got on, but forgot to post on time. I fancy a SHG in that game anyway!

[Akiva Anderson]

Some really good games at the Olympics here!

[Ryan]

The never have any selections on a Thursday continues!

[Akiva Anderson]

@john-folan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Under 1.5 Goals Lay: Wednesday, 21st July 2021 - @daniel-cooper

18:00 - Malmo v HJK Helsinki
20:00 - PSV v Galatasaray
20:00 - Legia Warsaw v Tallinna Flora

All Champions League Qualifiers.

Here is my Potentials List - These aren't tried and tested - They are for fun and I expect them to produce Over 1.5 Goals. Approach with caution:

12:00 - Australia (W) v New Zealand (W)
18:00 - Stromsgodset v Odd
19:45 - Livingston v Raith

Got matched on Malmö and PSV. Both converted so Toda my fellow yid.

Eyn be'ad ma!

[John Folan]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Under 1.5 Goals Lay: Wednesday, 21st July 2021 - @daniel-cooper

18:00 - Malmo v HJK Helsinki
20:00 - PSV v Galatasaray
20:00 - Legia Warsaw v Tallinna Flora

All Champions League Qualifiers.

Here is my Potentials List - These aren't tried and tested - They are for fun and I expect them to produce Over 1.5 Goals. Approach with caution:

12:00 - Australia (W) v New Zealand (W)
18:00 - Stromsgodset v Odd
19:45 - Livingston v Raith

Got matched on Malmö and PSV. Both converted so Toda my fellow yid.

[A Former User]

@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Afternoon all, heres my SHG picks for today:

Norway Obos-ligaen 21/07/2021 17:00:00 Raufoss Sogndal
Norway Obos-ligaen 21/07/2021 17:00:00 Ranheim Jerv
Norway Obos-ligaen 21/07/2021 17:00:00 Grorud Ull/Kisa

Early goals in Raufoss and Ranheim so just the Grorud game for me in the end. +2.23 pts

[Richard Latimer]

@darri no no no....I meant specifically mine and I did say with good reason. Let's not start this back up again. I respect your views and I've got around 10 days left before I re-assess my own and I'll keep going on that basis.

I'm also working on an over 1.5 but that really is in it's infancy.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer its not scepticism around +70min trading, i mean i used to be doing that so i wouldnt say that. Its just the way you are going about that strategy and building it. Late goal trading is great if you get it right and actually has a better leeway for newer traders to get wrong at times. You dont need a high strike rate. The only thing id say tho compared to the more common strats is that there are plenty of variables. Iv done countless blog posts surrounding late goals on the road to full time blog @Matt-Ayles so if you fancy a read try to find the west brom vs spurs example. Its exactly the process id go about doing late goals. Was on the 8th of november and actually if you followed my process and combined it with your idea of late goals then there was an 88th min winner. So perhaps a good base for you to look into. I never properly went either way with mine i was just happy with 65-70 mins entries at first. Im now a SHG trader and just happy with the set and forget gains as i re invested my winnings from the late goal strategy into other passive incomes. But if i did this full time again id 100% be doing late goals.

[A Former User]

@matt-ayles as you will have gathered there really isnt a ready answer. I used to trade late goals and is the main strategy that got me to become a full time trader. Reading the game and understanding if a games odds are value was what got me success and it took a while. Honestly best thing to do is to test and gather your own data. Other peoples data will be unrelated and irrelevant. I could show you mine but we might end up trading differently because i view x game as value and you dont etc, thats part of trading.

Best advice is go build a selection criteria either via data from sites or use the stats filter to give you games. A lot of people question late goals purely because they struggle with the lower strike rates. Losing multiple games before you hit a few winners is often a negative feeling. Thats why you will need to go do a rather large test for this type of strategy. Itll be one that has various variance cycles because of the low strike rate. Happy to help along the way if you want a chat.

Id honestly keep it so so simple at first. Dont go ramming it with criteria. Its gonna take alot of data collecting and might be best to think of this as a training exercise for the next few months. being at the comp/phone when a game reaches 80-85 mins and then recording odds, scores and perhaps inplay stats to make sure its still lively. Loads to do and plenty of avenues but please keep it stupid simple to start with and then build out from there. We are seeing many come onto here and get ultra detailed too fast.

If you look around the forum the better traders are actually doing stupidly simple trades.

[A Former User]

Afternoon all, heres my SHG picks for today:

Norway Obos-ligaen 21/07/2021 17:00:00 Raufoss Sogndal
Norway Obos-ligaen 21/07/2021 17:00:00 Ranheim Jerv
Norway Obos-ligaen 21/07/2021 17:00:00 Grorud Ull/Kisa

[A Former User]

@matt-ayles

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-ayles odds around 70-75 mins can range evens to around 3.0 so you need closer to 60-70% to make that work.

Thank you Richard, that is the kind of information that I do not have, that's very useful. Clearly then I would need to find stats on goals much later than 70-75 mins.

Hi Mate

if you looking at 70min theres already a proven BTC second half filter any goal after 60min gets sent out on the daily selections you could just follow that. I been following the memebers filters for a couple months now and they are profitable. I know thats different to what you said but i thought was worth mentioning. Its already been tested and proven to profitbale.

[Richard Latimer]

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-ayles odds around 70-75 mins can range evens to around 3.0 so you need closer to 60-70% to make that work.

Thank you Richard, that is the kind of information that I do not have, that's very useful. Clearly then I would need to find stats on goals much later than 70-75 mins.

You'd be surprised how many games do have goals 70 mins on and not just those with no prev 2nd half goals. Like I said, there is a fair amount of skepticism around my data so far because frankly it's very specifiic and there isn't enough of it but pre match odds, ht scorelines, when 2nd half goals are scored, all for my money play a part in whether you will see another goal in a game.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-ayles odds around 70-75 mins can range evens to around 3.0 so you need closer to 60-70% to make that work.

Thank you Richard, that is the kind of information that I do not have, that's very useful. Clearly then I would need to find stats on goals much later than 70-75 mins.

[Richard Latimer]

@matt-ayles odds around 70-75 mins can range evens to around 3.0 so you need closer to 60-70% to make that work.

[Ryan]

Couple for me today on the HT LCS / HT LTD

Date Home Away
21/07/2021 17:00:00 Grorud Ull/Kisa
21/07/2021 17:00:00 Start Stjordals Blink

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Evening All.

I appreciate I am new here and this question is probably old hat, however before I start my own research I thought I would see if anyone else already had this information.

Has anybody looked into a strategy for very late goals (in any league), for example laying current score after 85 minutes, or presumably backing another goal would be similar.

How do the typical odds on those markets, at that time in the match, compare to the percentage of goals that are scored after 85 minutes?

It's a strategy I want to start paper trading but if someone (or many someones) has thought of this already perhaps we could chat?

Thanks all.

Hi Matt welcome to the group mate.
i have tried without success on the late goal system either on 70mins or when it enters injury time. The injury time system the reward would be much better on the wins but you would have to accept a high percentage of losses which can effect people's mentality.
Paper trade first mate would be my suggestion and start with a filter looking at injury times if you want any help i will see if i can look at one for you

For a time, it was one of the biggest strategies on here, laying @ 1.3 around 85th minute and it did produce a lot of late goals but like everything I think it became a little lopsided and things started to skew back towards larger odds and a higher percentage chance.

There was a user on her some while back that literally laid around the 90th minute and he got some great results but from what I gather he got a little too big for his boots and so another bit the dust in terms of the forum.

I'm experimenting with some success, and it's fair to say, alot of justified concern, on the 70+ market. Time will tell on that.

Thank you for all this information. According to Soccer Stats, between 20-25% of Premier League goals are scored in the last 15 minutes (I checked over the past 5 seasons). There would need to be alot more research in regards which teams these came from (for example Fulham last season scored 0 goals in the last 15 minutes).

I'd need to go through the various leagues and see which ones are the most prolific late on, then see if that applies more specifically to a handful of teams.

The odds would need to be favourable late on though also, as the strike rate is likely to be around 15-20% (given that I haven't checked how many of the 25% of goals were in individual matches).

I think I'll paper trade it for this coming season (once I have narrowed down the leagues/teams) and then if it is successful begin trading it in the 22/23 season.

[A Former User]

@daniel-cooper doesnt look like there is for today or tomorrow, but weekends will now be busier again

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I can see 6 possibly 7 teams being well adrift at the bottom of the table this season as things stand - palace, Viera’s managerial record is shocking, Brighton, Newcastle, the three promoted teams and maybe Southampton especially if they lose Ings

Didn't it start off quite well in the states, plateaued in France and well, now we shall see with Palace.