The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
My picks for tonight:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals: (Also expecting a SHG)
19:30 - Lecce v Ternana
19:45 - Cagliari v Salernitana
20:00 - Lens v Angers3/3 from the under 1.5 goals lay and 3/3 in the SHG.
Layla tov
Cheers for these
Are the SHG any scoreline and any HT odds or do you set them?
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
My picks for tonight:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals: (Also expecting a SHG)
19:30 - Lecce v Ternana
19:45 - Cagliari v Salernitana
20:00 - Lens v Angers3/3 from the under 1.5 goals lay and 3/3 in the SHG.
Layla tov
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@matt-ayles think about what you said in this post. You found a game with great pre match stats. The market is saying that the probability of a 0-0 is higher than you think it is so the price in this case is value to your system. You dont just follow the market, you try to pick holes at it when you feel its wrong, dont ever be led by the market, its how we all build our edges. You talked yourself out of that trade and im guessing this is more to do with the underlying criteria you are after for a perfect trade, rather than a game by game basis. Maybe your looking for too much? Have you setup a part of your results sheets to show if inplay stats are helping or hindering? In my book what you said sounds like you spotted a good pre match game, the market didnt agree and therefore you had a great value trade on your hands. Trading is all about mindset, but you build mindset by having a good proven strat. 3 months of bad strike rate is underlying criteria/match selection. If you want i can take a look at your data see whats happening.
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@matt-ayles said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thinking out loud:
Everyone (myself included) has Cagliari on their LTD/SHG filters.
It's 0-0 HT...
Stats aren't great. Total shots and corners are good, but shots on target and dangerous attack percentages are poor.
Research shows neither team has had a 0-0 FT, they both score more goals in the second half than first, the away team concede lots of goals away from home in second half. Cagliari score more goals early in the second half than late (which suits me as I get out at 80 mins).The odds are 2.58 as I type this (to LTD).
Recently I have been following the criteria to the letter, so I would not enter this trade due to lack of shots on target, lack of dangerous attacks, and the draw odds being that low (suggests the market expect a draw). However my strike rate the last 3 months is woeful...
And thus I pass the mic to the crowd for feedback please!
You're right Matt lots of SOFT and not many SONT and from the off I felt it was going to be one of those games with 50% chance of a goal.
Yes the goal came, thankfully as I was in a Split Stake but I was only trading half stakes due to a poor win rate of both teams... That was the red flag to me.
You can see from the uploaded screenshot regarding the amount of games lost by both teams in their previous 5 home & away games.
These are games to trade with caution so we'll done you
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SHG cagliari vs salernitana 0-0 HT
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Thinking out loud:
Everyone (myself included) has Cagliari on their LTD/SHG filters.
It's 0-0 HT...
Stats aren't great. Total shots and corners are good, but shots on target and dangerous attack percentages are poor.
Research shows neither team has had a 0-0 FT, they both score more goals in the second half than first, the away team concede lots of goals away from home in second half. Cagliari score more goals early in the second half than late (which suits me as I get out at 80 mins).The odds are 2.58 as I type this (to LTD).
Recently I have been following the criteria to the letter, so I would not enter this trade due to lack of shots on target, lack of dangerous attacks, and the draw odds being that low (suggests the market expect a draw). However my strike rate the last 3 months is woeful...
And thus I pass the mic to the crowd for feedback please!
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
My HT LTD/HT LCS for today
Can you tell me please what filters do you use for them selections mate?
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My picks for tonight:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals: (Also expecting a SHG)
19:30 - Lecce v Ternana
19:45 - Cagliari v Salernitana
20:00 - Lens v Angersle jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@andy-donnelly Sounds good, keep me updated on the progress of it.
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Ok thanks Ryan, I may start small stakes soon then and continually monitor both the wider data and the performance of the narrowed filter for a while yet
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Quick one from me re testing. Think this has been discussed a few times but just wanted to gauge peoples thoughts, how many games minimum on average would you test before being comfortable enough to invest in a strategy?
And if you have say tested something for 500 games then realised that narrowing a filter would increase the SR but would reduce number of tested games with the new criteria to say 250, would you want another 250 games tested with that before being comfortable?
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@keith-anderson Nope never!
That ship has burned, the reality is he would have been truly unstoppable if had stayed and Klopp came etc lol
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@thomas-larsen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Watching my team (Brøndby) play against Lyon. Cant see this one end 0-0 but cant back o0.5 at 1.22
Will wait and see how 2nd half startGoal 1-0 51 min
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Watching my team (Brøndby) play against Lyon. Cant see this one end 0-0 but cant back o0.5 at 1.22
Will wait and see how 2nd half start -
@alan-steward thanks alan that does help
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