The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alastair-todd Problem your going to have is that most games start at odds of around 5 that is too much of a Risk to Reward ratio to me but depends on your appetite to risk.
You could lower your stake and use the "Maria" staking system at the higher odds something I might paper test and see what happens.
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@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Great results Keith, well done. Hope the hangover is subsiding! Can I ask whether you enter these Lay trades regardless of the liability? My filter throws up a similar number of games but because I only go up to odds of 4.0 on the lay side I often don't get matched by the time the first goal goes in. I would be matched more often if I didn't worry about the liability but the ones that do lose would be much more costly. Asking as I am trying to work out how to tweak my filter, or at least tweak the games I decide to enter a trade on.
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alastair-todd I have a similar filter and apply the same rules as you not entering unless get matched at 3.9 although I do treat them as a set and forget.
If I don’t get matched then so be it I invariably don’t know until recording results anyway.
I'm happy enough to go higher...sepending on the league and the team(s) involved. Don't think I've layed anything above 6.0 though. I've normally a set liability in my head that I'm comfortbale with.
Chris is correct, if you miss some then you miss some. It shouldn't really be that much of a concern
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@chris-osborne Sounds good Chris, I was on 3.5 but decided to up it to 4 to see if it made much difference (which I have yet to work out properly). My filter is running at a strike rate of a tiny bit under 80% so it may pay to enter the trade at whatever the liability is at the start of the match and just suck up the 20% losses. Like you, I am setting and forgetting. I was just curious to see if that was what @keith-anderson was doing.
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@alastair-todd I have a similar filter and apply the same rules as you not entering unless get matched at 3.9 although I do treat them as a set and forget.
If I don’t get matched then so be it I invariably don’t know until recording results anyway.
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@keith-anderson Great results Keith, well done. Hope the hangover is subsiding! Can I ask whether you enter these Lay trades regardless of the liability? My filter throws up a similar number of games but because I only go up to odds of 4.0 on the lay side I often don't get matched by the time the first goal goes in. I would be matched more often if I didn't worry about the liability but the ones that do lose would be much more costly. Asking as I am trying to work out how to tweak my filter, or at least tweak the games I decide to enter a trade on.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
My picks for today:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals: (Also expect a SHG)
08:45 - Adelaide United v Melbourne City
12:30 - Preston North End v Fulham
14:00 - Sampdoria v Hellas Verona
14:30 - Greuther Fürth v Hoffenheim
15:00 - Crystal Palace v Aston Villa
15:00 - Plymouth Argyle v Wigan Athletic
15:00 - Forest Green Rovers v Bristol Rovers
15:00 - Hearts v St. Mirren
15:15 - Valencia v Rayo Vallecano
16:00 - Lille v Nantes
17:15 - Almería v HuescaI’m at my younger brothers wedding today, so won’t be around much. I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon.
Results from Saturday.....
Lay Under 1.5 Goals: (Also expect a SHG)
08:45 - Adelaide United v Melbourne City - HT: 0-1 / FT: 2-2
12:30 - Preston North End v Fulham - HT: 0-1 / FT: 1-1
14:00 - Sampdoria v Hellas Verona - HT: 0-1 / FT: 3-1
14:30 - Greuther Fürth v Hoffenheim - HT: 1-2 / 3-6
15:00 - Crystal Palace v Aston Villa - HT: 0-1 / FT: 1-2
15:00 - Plymouth Argyle v Wigan Athletic - HT: 1-1 / FT: 1-2
15:00 - Forest Green Rovers v Bristol Rovers - HT: 1-0 / FT: 2-0
15:00 - Hearts v St. Mirren - HT: 0-0 / FT: 2-0
15:15 - Valencia v Rayo Vallecano - HT: 1-0 / FT: 1-1
16:00 - Lille v Nantes - HT: 1-1 / FT: 1-1
17:15 - Almería v Huesca - HT: 0-0 / FT: 0-010 / 11 on the Under 1/5 goal lays
9 / 11 in the SHG
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Enjoy your break Darri, speak with you in Jan.
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@darri Have a good one Darri
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Iv decided ill be pausing all my trading for december. Want to be fully present with family over the festive time. In january ill resume my set and forget trading. This year has been cracking and i hope people have managed to hop on some of the trades along the way. This is just a quick post to wish everyone a happy xmas and new year and ill catch you all in january. Stay safe trading wise over this busy period and hopefully the gains can be repeated next year too. You can catch a full update on p/l, bank increase etc on the blog. Have a good one you lot
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG bordeaux vs brest 1-0 HT
SHG brentford vs everton 1-0 HT1/2 today, still been a good week and now move on towards finalising a good year on these
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SHG bordeaux vs brest 1-0 HT
SHG brentford vs everton 1-0 HT -
@alan-steward To be fair to Shakespeare he was key in our survival the previous season's survival under Pearson as you have said
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward hate to disappoint you but Shakespeare had very little to do with our title winning campaign
That was the least of my hopes as I know we have no chance of that... More if he could help guide Norwich to safety with Smith.
He was Pearson's No 2 wasn't he?
Who was Ranieri's No 2?
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@alan-steward hate to disappoint you but Shakespeare had very little to do with our title winning campaign
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
SHG norwich vs wolves 0-0 HT
SHG palace vs villa 0-1 HT1/2, brings the streak to an end but still 11/12 in this batch is great returns given the odds we have taken, hope some have got on
Shame that Norwich had some great chances to score
Big change in our game isn't there... Watched the Saints game when visiting my brother in Spain last weekend... They won't be able to sustain their current form but if they did I couldn't see us going down.
After looking into the appointments I was more chuffed to see Shakespeare join Smith as he was the one orchestrating Pearson's great escape & Ranieri's title wing season with Leicester
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals: Expect a SHG too
05:05 - Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar
12:30 - Genk v Club Brugge
13:00 - OB v Nordsjælland
13:00 - Real Betis v Levante
14:00 - Bordeaux v Brest
14:00 - Spezia v Bologna
14:00 - Milan v Sassuolo
14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Berlin
15:00 - Ipswich v Crewe
16:30 - Chelsea v Man United
18:45 - 18:45 - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Maccabi Haifa
19:45 - Napoli v LazioAbsolutely dying here. Hangover from hell. Will update later….maybe
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@matt-ayles Benfica leading 7-0 at half time, Belenesses only had 7 players for second half they conceded complete and utter farce
