The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward you too Alan
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@alan-steward Thanks Alan, Have yourself a great Christmas too
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A boring two days ahead with no decent football to trade
But may I take this opportunity to wish all you filthy animals a very Merry Xmas
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@dave-hayes said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Richard-Latimer nice one and well done you
Not yet mate but making small gains rather than losses haha
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@Richard-Latimer nice one and well done you
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@dave-hayes I'm just doing my own stuff. I just resonate with having confidence in what you are doing or there's no point doing it.
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@Richard-Latimer I didn't do the U 1.5 goals Venezia v Lazio, but LTD instead, getting in at the 30th Minute mark at 2.6, dropped from 5 , after watching for around 5 or 10 minutes, then realising that Lazio were managed by Maurizio Sarri Ex Chelsea boss ( one of my teams) so knew they weren't going to lose.
Traded out when Lazio took the lead in the 2H with a nice little profit
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
15:30 - Venezia v Lazio
18:00 - Granada v Atlético Madrid
20:00 - Bordeaux v Lille
20:00 - Monaco v RennesLay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
15:30 - Venezia v Lazio - HT: 1-1 / FT: 1-3
18:00 - Granada v Atlético Madrid - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-1
20:00 - Bordeaux v Lille - HT: 2-1 / FT: 2-3
20:00 - Monaco v Rennes - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-14/4 in the 1/5's
4/4 in the SHG
Having a system you believe in is of paramount importance. A bad weekend, but its important you don't s**t yourself. If you're stressed after a bad day or weekend, then your liability is too high. Its a marathon, not a sprint.
It's something I tell myself if I have a little setback. Try not to let it affect me, do what I need to do and approach the next set of game like a robot. One thing I tell myself which I think is true is that you can't trade scared. If you're scared you will make silly mistakes, pull back without logic and generally act completely differently from one week to the next.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
15:30 - Venezia v Lazio
18:00 - Granada v Atlético Madrid
20:00 - Bordeaux v Lille
20:00 - Monaco v RennesLay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
15:30 - Venezia v Lazio - HT: 1-1 / FT: 1-3
18:00 - Granada v Atlético Madrid - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-1
20:00 - Bordeaux v Lille - HT: 2-1 / FT: 2-3
20:00 - Monaco v Rennes - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-14/4 in the 1/5's
4/4 in the SHG
Having a system you believe in is of paramount importance. A bad weekend, but its important you don't s**t yourself. If you're stressed after a bad day or weekend, then your liability is too high. Its a marathon, not a sprint.
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Evening gang, I’ve gone a LTD at Gaziantep 0-0 at HT will go for a potential LCS if still 0-0 around 75 mins and in play justifies it.
1-0 56 mins.
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Evening gang, I’ve gone a LTD at Gaziantep 0-0 at HT will go for a potential LCS if still 0-0 around 75 mins and in play justifies it.
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
15:30 - Venezia v Lazio
18:00 - Granada v Atlético Madrid
20:00 - Bordeaux v Lille
20:00 - Monaco v Rennesle jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@wayne-ironside said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@wayne-ironside i agree with @Alan-Steward here, 80% has got to be around the min youd be wanting. At around 60 mins most prices are within the range of 1.25-1.4 if its a predicted high scoring game. Of course some will be above this but they tend to be the quiet games which youd be wanting to avoid anyway. Maybe martin has the data showing what leagues are reaching the 80% s/r for this strategy/filter, 72% for me its not worth grinding at seems way too low. This is kinda why it would be good to see the data up to date. @Martin perhaps a condensed version of the daily selections? This way it would be easier to update if you only had 1 or 2 strats. Ryans split and one of the shgs. Impossible for you without back testing to keep all current ones updated, unless you are trading them personally. This strategy at 72% doesnt seem that safe given odds at the time of entry.
I'll do some filtering tomorrow and get back to you. I record the data I dont trade that strategy at the moment. Useful advice though for strike rate I have a couple at around 80%.
Right went through data of 520 games starting from 15/12/2020.
I went through every individual league and removed any that were under 80%, which left the data with 159 games.
I will link both the filtered and unfiltered data on this post.0_1640082499018_BLG.xlsx 0_1640082521306_Filtered data BLG.xlsx -
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@wayne-ironside i agree with @Alan-Steward here, 80% has got to be around the min youd be wanting. At around 60 mins most prices are within the range of 1.25-1.4 if its a predicted high scoring game. Of course some will be above this but they tend to be the quiet games which youd be wanting to avoid anyway. Maybe martin has the data showing what leagues are reaching the 80% s/r for this strategy/filter, 72% for me its not worth grinding at seems way too low. This is kinda why it would be good to see the data up to date. @Martin perhaps a condensed version of the daily selections? This way it would be easier to update if you only had 1 or 2 strats. Ryans split and one of the shgs. Impossible for you without back testing to keep all current ones updated, unless you are trading them personally. This strategy at 72% doesnt seem that safe given odds at the time of entry.
I'll do some filtering tomorrow and get back to you. I record the data I dont trade that strategy at the moment. Useful advice though for strike rate I have a couple at around 80%.
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@wayne-ironside i agree with @Alan-Steward here, 80% has got to be around the min youd be wanting. At around 60 mins most prices are within the range of 1.25-1.4 if its a predicted high scoring game. Of course some will be above this but they tend to be the quiet games which youd be wanting to avoid anyway. Maybe martin has the data showing what leagues are reaching the 80% s/r for this strategy/filter, 72% for me its not worth grinding at seems way too low. This is kinda why it would be good to see the data up to date. @Martin perhaps a condensed version of the daily selections? This way it would be easier to update if you only had 1 or 2 strats. Ryans split and one of the shgs. Impossible for you without back testing to keep all current ones updated, unless you are trading them personally. This strategy at 72% doesnt seem that safe given odds at the time of entry.
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@wayne-ironside said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan yeah we don't have access to the data, when we do the big back testing update it will be really easy to track that data. I did all that manually originally and there was no way I could keep doing that, not enough time in the world lol
Oh ok. Do you think it’s a good idea to be sending them out then if they are not being tracked? They may no longer be profitable.
I have been tracking backing a late goal any scoreline which runs at 72% @ 60 mins. Some games have value some do not.
Hi Wayne, with a SHG circa 60mins I find the required strike rate needs to be minimum 80%... This will cover any value as your avg back/lay odds should make the system profitable.
To achieve a higher strike rate try filtering through leagues and only include those with 80% strike rate... You should achieve circa 82% by doing this.
Best of luck!
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan yeah we don't have access to the data, when we do the big back testing update it will be really easy to track that data. I did all that manually originally and there was no way I could keep doing that, not enough time in the world lol
Oh ok. Do you think it’s a good idea to be sending them out then if they are not being tracked? They may no longer be profitable.
I have been tracking backing a late goal any scoreline which runs at 72% @ 60 mins. Some games have value some do not.
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@eamonn-hogan members who follow them say they are so not had a reason to get rid of them, not had any complaints about them either which is a big sign, is there any one in particular you are worried about?
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@eamonn-hogan yeah we don't have access to the data, when we do the big back testing update it will be really easy to track that data. I did all that manually originally and there was no way I could keep doing that, not enough time in the world lol
Oh ok. Do you think it’s a good idea to be sending them out then if they are not being tracked? They may no longer be profitable.
