The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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No bet again yesterday. Today's. 3.5-9 odds range only
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No bet yesterday. One selection today. 3.5-9 odds range
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I've been messing with these and I'm only trading horses between 80-120 OR going forward. This will get rid of the dross and over competitive races in one fell swoop. It also halves the number of selections. Updated spreadsheet attached.
One selection today 3.5-9 odds range as usual. This strategy will still average 10 points a month. Just a lot less swingy.
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@angus-macleod said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@john-folan was watching through Betfairs feed as it happened and noticed there was a huge delay afterwards, not sure what went wrong but hope they will be alright
Horse dead I think and jockey was airlifted to hospital.
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@john-folan was watching through Betfairs feed as it happened and noticed there was a huge delay afterwards, not sure what went wrong but hope they will be alright
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Nasty fall at Yarmouth and racing abandoned.
Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
One point down yesterday. Today's selections. 3.5-9 as usual.
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Great day yesterday mate, 4 out of 6 i had, good work mate
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A somewhat positive day.
Tomorrows attached.
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Todays
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@martin-futter Best option so far seems to be 4.0 and below. However, that covers 570/579 of the selections to date!! so probably not worth changing anything for now. I'll keep looking into it.
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Today's results and tomorrows potentials. 3.5-9 odds range only
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So much for the downward trend
Today's 3.5-9 odds range.
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Today's. Bit od a downward trend at the mo. So be a little careful
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@gareth-thomas said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Right then. I've attached a spreadsheet. First sheet is just the results. Second sheet is where I used filters to see what the winning amounts would have been if odds selection had been take into account. I split it into win and place.
Assuming I'm right (and I may not be!), you can see that of the 34 horses layed with odds of less than or equal to 2.0, it's resulted in a loss of £50. I've selected a whole other range of odds to see what the numbers look like.
For wins, the most profitable selection is only to lay when the odds are 2.0 and over. I've also identified the highest average profit per bet but it means you'd have only made 64 bets but with a 25% profit on average.
I've then done the same with the place bets which suggests that laying at 4.0 and less is the most profitable (not usually an issue for placing - only excluded 9 bets).
So, to date, if you'd only layed winners at 2.0 and above and only layed placing at 4.0 and above, it would have improved profit by a small but worthwhile £71.30, 7.1 points or about 7.4% - statistically significant.
First question is - does this make sense? and could is potentially successfully be applied to future bets.
My other thoughts are to look at the ratios of money made and lost at various groupings of odds and to see whether there's any staking plan that might help.
I'd also like to look at the napsters themselves and see what patterns emerge but I'm not sure the historical data will be available - unless anyone knows different?
what's best on the place? i don't really like the wins to lay
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Anything today @John-Folan ?
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Right then. I've attached a spreadsheet. First sheet is just the results. Second sheet is where I used filters to see what the winning amounts would have been if odds selection had been take into account. I split it into win and place.
Assuming I'm right (and I may not be!), you can see that of the 34 horses layed with odds of less than or equal to 2.0, it's resulted in a loss of £50. I've selected a whole other range of odds to see what the numbers look like.
For wins, the most profitable selection is only to lay when the odds are 2.0 and over. I've also identified the highest average profit per bet but it means you'd have only made 64 bets but with a 25% profit on average.
I've then done the same with the place bets which suggests that laying at 4.0 and less is the most profitable (not usually an issue for placing - only excluded 9 bets).
So, to date, if you'd only layed winners at 2.0 and above and only layed placing at 4.0 and above, it would have improved profit by a small but worthwhile £71.30, 7.1 points or about 7.4% - statistically significant.
First question is - does this make sense? and could is potentially successfully be applied to future bets.
My other thoughts are to look at the ratios of money made and lost at various groupings of odds and to see whether there's any staking plan that might help.
I'd also like to look at the napsters themselves and see what patterns emerge but I'm not sure the historical data will be available - unless anyone knows different?
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@cyril-reaney a lot of us are waiting for the software to drop, once that happens there will be a lot of talk.
The place nap lays have done really well, they are up and down but so much profit over the long term and I love the lay odds never really getting above 3 and often odds on!
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@gareth-thomas I'm sure it's the right place for discussion and any ideas on improvement will be welcome.
Just had a look at today's nap lays .41 out of 54 are 5/1 or less which is interesting. I find the horse racing net site useful as one can reorder naps by time/profitability and by tipster.
I'm hoping to see much more discussion on horse racing going forward. -
@gareth-thomas said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Hello all, I've been taking a long look at the NAP lays. I'm convinced there's ways it can it can be improved.
From a simple odds selection range, based on historical data, I think I can show an easy increased 10% earnings and I think there's more to be had.
Is here the right place to post and discuss it?
Absolutely
