The BTC Horse Racing Thread

[John Folan]

@Holly mentioned to me the other day about backing the place on my flat pace selections. So this morning I downloaded all the individual results and @Adam has added (it may have been there all along but I'm trying to highlight it and I probably ignored it because I can be blinkered sometimes) the place BSP. So I've done a P and L on them. For Speed if you delete all columns after bsp_place and run this formula it will give you a profit and loss per race. just apply it to the whole column.(=IF(P3="Y",(Q3-1)*98%,-1). change the 3 to whatever your first row number is(it will be 2 or 3). Then run a running total calculation. Takes two minutes to see if something is profitable to place or not.

Anyway here are the results. From 494 trades a profit of 126.86. So an ROI of 25 % and a max drawdown of a ridiculously low 8.22%. This software is the gift that keeps giving. Mad.

[John Folan]

Ok So yesterdays results finished on.
Classic Trobs: Dobs 0. Trobs +2 Win +0.72
Flat Pace -3 (These are testing, but are still well within previous runs, so really not fussed. Like Gary Barlow said "You gotta have a little patience" I'm still over 30 points up since i started live trading them).
Slow Horses +4. Every single horse in the race that was a selection last night dobbed :).
Short Odds Lays +1. These have been hovering around the 30 point profit for the last month. Annoying that I can't post these daily, but that is the nature of the beast.

Today's Selections.
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9

Flat Pace. Back to Win or Place if Win Price is between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0. Multiple selections per race are what makes this profitable. Just think Pokemon.
NONE TODAY

[John Folan]

Only places for the flat pace. Good on the trobs tho. Trying to work out slow horses still lol

[John Folan]

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan
How are you setting that up in the backtester? Setting the exit point at 30 seconds (but you need to set something else like points too) isnt giving me anything that looks interesting.

Using the same settings and changing stakes to £100.00 exit point is 10 points profit no stop loss. Trade out on 30 seconds no matter what.

[A Former User]

@john-folan
How are you setting that up in the backtester? Setting the exit point at 30 seconds (but you need to set something else like points too) isnt giving me anything that looks interesting.

[Martin]

@john-folan wow that is huge!

[John Folan]

@ryan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan please expand? In terms of 10 mins out backing then getting out before race or in the morning?

So the entry point for straight backing is 11 minutes before the official start time. Backing then and laying off 30 seconds before the official start time gives that profit .

Going to set up a separate bot to replicate in real life.

[Ryan]

@john-folan please expand? In terms of 10 mins out backing then getting out before race or in the morning?

[Adam]

@jonathan-jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Got a question on how the backtest works in terms of trading type strategies. Would it re-enter if the criteria are met again and the trade on that horse it totally played out (Either hit its target or SL then price moves back into the highlighted range for example) or does it enforce one trade per race per selection. Dontmind what its doing i just need to know so i can replicate in the automation.

Currently it's one trade per selection

[John Folan]

Interestingly the flat pace is a profitable scalping strategy if you want to do that. Using £100 stakes it would be worth £7666 a year on it's own. Also proves my point that getting in earlier is providing value.

[Ryan]

@john-folan Wahooo! Here we go!

[John Folan]

Today's
Classic Trobs: Dob, Trob or Win if odds are between 3.5-9

Flat Pace. Back to Win if between 2.0-25.0. 4-14 Runners only. Avoid Soft, Heavy and Firm Going

Slow Horses. Dob any over 6.0

[Ryan]

@greg-mitchell great having you here, maybe one day you won't have too

[A Former User]

Got a question on how the backtest works in terms of trading type strategies. Would it re-enter if the criteria are met again and the trade on that horse it totally played out (Either hit its target or SL then price moves back into the highlighted range for example) or does it enforce one trade per race per selection. Dontmind what its doing i just need to know so i can replicate in the automation.

[John Folan]

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan like buses

It is sometimes. Variance on backing strategies can be a lot higher than lay as the strike rate tends to be a lot lower. Just have to be ready for it.

Even the trobs I do only(he says) have a 43% strike rate. But the wins and losses tend to group. The trick is to not panic when you go on a long losing run. Sensible staking and a gentle compounding is the way forward. Never been a fan of doubling stakes when you double the bank. A nice one or two percent compound depending on the strategy gets you there. Then you can enjoy all those buses when they come along

[A Former User]

@john-folan like buses

[John Folan]

@keith said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan nice one mate

Thanks. A nice Dob and Trob as well to finish the day

[Greg Mitchell]

Loving being here, my kind of chat, if only I didn't have to work for a living... Anyway, first stab at my own Strategy, what's the thoughts on its return gang?

[A Former User]

@john-folan nice one mate

[John Folan]

Winner @8.8. Steamed in to 7.6 Nice extra value provided by the 11 minute entry point