The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Greg Mitchell

@fraser-cord said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@greg-mitchell was there that many? Looks like I'm counting my lucky stars that I missed a couple then. Still a very poor day

The one at 15 is one I need to check, but the other 4 definitely.

Fraser cord

@greg-mitchell was there that many? Looks like I'm counting my lucky stars that I missed a couple then. Still a very poor day

John Folan

@greg-mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A profitable day all round. Onwards and upwards

How did you make profit with Beaten Favourites winning at 5.6, 7.2, 15, 8.2 and 8.2?

I had one at 1.5 and a couple of other shorter ones. Ended up about 0.5 points up. Was about 3 points up at one stage effort that late run of losers.

Greg Mitchell

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

A profitable day all round. Onwards and upwards

How did you make profit with Beaten Favourites winning at 5.6, 7.2, 15, 8.2 and 8.2?

John Folan

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

John Folan

A profitable day all round. Onwards and upwards

John Folan

Not as bad a list as I though. The Beaten Favourites list will give me a heart attack though lol.

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads

John Folan

@kevin-pepper said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Just for information, these are the two LAY strategies I am running with compounding stakes(5% on LTBF and 2% on SOL). The results here are to flat stakes. The LTBF(Lay the Beaten Favourite) is laying to a liability so I can include odds a lot higher than I would normally do.

But with a bit of patience and sensible staking you can turn in a good income from the software. It just won't happen overnight. Just be realistic with your expectations and expect some downturns(SOL are currently running at a 5% drawdown from the bank high from late November, but it's come back from worse) and you will be fine.

Thanks John and I'm following a similar approach. I've been looking at the SOL results and the results when laying the PLACE to a fixed liability are not far short of the Win results (the sample I looked at were +268 for the Win and +248 for the Place). If anyone fancies taking a look themselves it would give me the confidence to update my Fairbot strategy to lay the Place as well )

I've also had a little play with the LTBF results and the Place laying to a fixed liability is also in profit but at about 50% of the Win market returns. Still a work in progress though....

The place is under utilised. Wonder if Adam can do us the place markets as an option?....Nice work. Will get into it a bit later this week.

Kevin Pepper

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Just for information, these are the two LAY strategies I am running with compounding stakes(5% on LTBF and 2% on SOL). The results here are to flat stakes. The LTBF(Lay the Beaten Favourite) is laying to a liability so I can include odds a lot higher than I would normally do.

But with a bit of patience and sensible staking you can turn in a good income from the software. It just won't happen overnight. Just be realistic with your expectations and expect some downturns(SOL are currently running at a 5% drawdown from the bank high from late November, but it's come back from worse) and you will be fine.

Thanks John and I'm following a similar approach. I've been looking at the SOL results and the results when laying the PLACE to a fixed liability are not far short of the Win results (the sample I looked at were +268 for the Win and +248 for the Place). If anyone fancies taking a look themselves it would give me the confidence to update my Fairbot strategy to lay the Place as well )

I've also had a little play with the LTBF results and the Place laying to a fixed liability is also in profit but at about 50% of the Win market returns. Still a work in progress though....

John Folan

Just for information, these are the two LAY strategies I am running with compounding stakes(5% on LTBF and 2% on SOL). The results here are to flat stakes. The LTBF(Lay the Beaten Favourite) is laying to a liability so I can include odds a lot higher than I would normally do.

But with a bit of patience and sensible staking you can turn in a good income from the software. It just won't happen overnight. Just be realistic with your expectations and expect some downturns(SOL are currently running at a 5% drawdown from the bank high from late November, but it's come back from worse) and you will be fine.

John Folan

Everyone ask @Adam why there are no selections on the horses today. He will get bored otherwise

John Folan

@mrs-h-m-price said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Oh I see, so it's not the DSLR of any particular horse that changes, but the favourite horse of the race. I'm not using any strats that use the favourite yet as I don't quite trust the bot to match the software for this reason!

Exactly that. I know what you mean on the favourite thing but the shorter odds ended and 10 seconds out it doesn’t change 99 times out of a hundred. It’s a bit of a lottery apart from that. That’s not a fault of the software it’s just the way betting patterns work.

Caroline Middlebrook

Oh I see, so it's not the DSLR of any particular horse that changes, but the favourite horse of the race. I'm not using any strats that use the favourite yet as I don't quite trust the bot to match the software for this reason!

John Folan

@mrs-h-m-price said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I think I know the problem. You will never know the runner numbers nor the DSLR of the eventual favourite until near the off. I run my strategy with those taken out under a different version called qualifiers then let my bot sort those out.

How come the DSLR isn't known until near the off? I have that filter on some of mine...

If you are picking the favourite, the favourite can change before the off so it’s a variable. If you are doing a specific horse regardless of its favourite position then it doesn’t matter.

So runner numbers I never run on my qualifier versions, I just let the bot handle that. The 12:40 for example was 15 runners making it a non qualifying race. There was a non runner this morning making it 14 runners and it entered the equation. Happily that one traded and won. (Only one today bar a late steam in one of the later race).

DSLR I filter in the software except if I’m laying (or backing) the favourite as the favourite can change before the off. So the current favourite might fit the criteria but if that horse was a non runner or drifted then the new favourite may not.

Hope that makes sense.

Caroline Middlebrook

I think I know the problem. You will never know the runner numbers nor the DSLR of the eventual favourite until near the off. I run my strategy with those taken out under a different version called qualifiers then let my bot sort those out.

How come the DSLR isn't known until near the off? I have that filter on some of mine...

John Folan

@daniel-mills said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@adam ah I dunno.

@John-Folan are these picks you're getting any different to the 2.0 file in the megathread?

I think I know the problem. You will never know the runner numbers nor the DSLR of the eventual favourite until near the off. I run my strategy with those taken out under a different version called qualifiers then let my bot sort those out.

? Offline

@adam ah I dunno.

@John-Folan are these picks you're getting any different to the 2.0 file in the megathread?

Adam

@daniel-mills The obvious questions is are you absolutely sure you're using the same strategy settings?

? Offline

@john-folan must not be me, that's the second day in a row that i've not had the same list of selections for your short odds lay's file from the v2.0 file from the megathread.

@Martin / @Adam - Hi guys, something I'm doing wrong here?

had 12:40 Ffos Las, 15:10, 15:40 Ffos Las missing today in my daily qualifiers, the 15:40 is still missing when I just refreshed and logged back in. Had some picks missing yesterday also.

cheers

John Folan

I shall be laying the favourites in these races 10 seconds before the start time subject to the following conditions:

Number of Runners 4-14.
Odds Between 1.8-2.4.
DSLR: 3-200.

Full strategy available here in the pinned post.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3531/horse-racing-shared-strategies-megathread-downloads