The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Joseph Henderson

@David-Milligan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Joseph-Henderson I had these settings too for LBF but found I was staking up to 2% or more of bank after a few losses so I've removed the ratchet

Just been pondering, when would enabling ratchet be beneficial? Surely this would always be the case when you hit a bad run..

Joshua Varley

@John-Folan 100%… I have generated the average odds for wins and losses for all the strategies I use for the last two years and complied them on a monthly breakdown.. it’s been amazingly helpful to track my actual results as I go forward against corresponding months from the last couple of years. It’s really helpful to know if a good/bad run is an outlier or just part of the random distribution. When the average odds broadly match those on the back testing, I feel much more secure when there is a rough patch..

Adam

@John-Folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

The other thing I find incredibly useful is to keep an average odds figure. That way I can keep an eye on the probability to make sure it’s long term profitable.

This is in the next update which I will probably release tomorrow

John Folan

The other thing I find incredibly useful is to keep an average odds figure. That way I can keep an eye on the probability to make sure it’s long term profitable.

John Folan

@Adam yes. I’ll send you an Asana. I think I tried to explain it before but I probably sounded like I was talking French.

Basically max drawdown expressed as a points value being the lowest point dropped to after a previous high.

So strategy hits 160 points as a high then drops 6 points, recovers 2 but then drops another 4 would have a max drawdown of 8 points.

Then after that it hits a high of 200. Drops 10, recovers 5 but drops another 10 to 185 would have a max drawdown of 15 points.

Probably a good idea to express it as a percentage as well as number of points. I find both really useful. Especially as a big number of points dropped after 6 months of running a strategy is a lot lower than if you had had the same drop after 1 week as (for example) a fifty point drop (with little recoveries and further drops)immediately is 50% of your 100 point bank but later on would only be 25% of your 200 point bank as the size increases if it’s a good strategy.

I’d never thought of using the percentage of bankroll as a max drawdown but I really like using it as an extra tool now.

Keith Driscoll

In order to hit the correct Fav. Lay 0-1s in-play. You hit them 100% of the time.
If you don't like taking big hits when laying, reduce the max lay price. LTBF with no filters is profitable, but do you want to lay 1000.0 shots? Well yes, they are profitable, but I wouldn't want to take a 1000.0 hit. I don't even take 20.0 hits. My max lay is much lower than that, as the risk/reward turns against you at certain prices, depending on the system. You set it to what your comfort zone is. It can always be adjusted later when your bank has grown.

Nathan Cooke

@Joseph-Henderson I usually setup my bot to trigger within 10 seconds of the off to try to avoid swings.

Adam

@John-Folan @Jonathan-Jones Is there something we can add to / change in the software to make drawdown more useful?

Martin

@Andy-Lucy probably best to ask on the fairbot thread: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3923/fairbot-automation-discussion

Martin

@Neal-Simmonds working fine for me, there is a form you can use to report any issues: https://form.asana.com/?k=V4sICWddOgH3CMQ96g0XSA&d=1120854233877885

Are you using Google Chrome?

Andy Lucy

Hey guys anyone on here using fairbot had any issues with it not firing bets lately?
Mine seems to have missed a lot of lay beaten fav selections that looking back it should of last few days especially.

Joseph Henderson

@David-Milligan Good point. Also, sure I’ve seen this discussed before but with a bot for LTBF. How do you deal with the 10 min place bet time and the not selecting 1st or 2nd favourite? I guess it’s possible that a selection could be made then steam into 1st or 2nd fav before race off.

Neal Simmonds

Can anyone tell me, is there a specific thread regarding BTC Horse Racing Software 'Status' as in when you guys know its not working properly! Mine wont load the meetings today, its happened before but some of my strategies today require me to do some checking? So I click 'Horse Racing Stats' & Nothing loads I get a message saying Loading... Please wait.

I can click though it into the Strategy Builder and I can see my picks but racing page itself wont load!

David Milligan

@Joseph-Henderson I had these settings too for LBF but found I was staking up to 2% or more of bank after a few losses so I've removed the ratchet

Joseph Henderson

@John-Folan Yes. I have my bot set to trade 1% of bank with ratchet system enabled.

John Folan

@Joseph-Henderson I compound at various levels depending on drawdown until I reach the max stake I want. Compounding via bot after each trade is the most efficient way to build a bank. Anyone who tells you otherwise is leading you up the garden path. It means there’s no nasty shocks if you have a downturn like you would if you did the old double your bank then double your stakes route. Much better for the old blood pressure.

Joseph Henderson

@John-Folan Fair enough. Do you then use flat stakes or compound?

John Folan

@Joseph-Henderson I did. Then I decided not to. Just did a 150 point bank. It has a max drawdown of about 50 points so I can cope with that

Joseph Henderson

@John-Folan Nice! Do you lay to liability on your LTBF strategy?

John Folan

@Joseph-Henderson my version got an utter kicking the last few days. Not today tho.