The BTC Horse Racing Thread

Adam

@kevin-curry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

that be great if you could i feel draw bias is very important i realize it will be a lot of data needed different tracks with different distances it will be a good extra filter to have in the armory

I've added it to the development plan. We already have the data so it will just be a case of creating some rules around it.

Adam

@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Adam
So the forecast price is something specific to this software. From what you say that would be static for the race and shouldnt change through the day. So i could download the qualifiers at 9am on the day of the race and it would be those values used for the backtest the next day, its not something like favourite or volume?

This is correct.

kevin curry

@Andy-Lucy thanks i do that i keep you posted how i get on

Andy Lucy

@Jonathan-Jones i have currently set it up as the action still set too at runtime so i can pick selection in the automation tab and then have set the 2 conditions with the odds range to 3rd fav. i am thinking this will fire on selection if the 3rd fav is within the odds range set, however my selection might not be that 3rd fav at the time. im not very confident with the other conditions etc and assume thats where the option will be if possible.

Andy Lucy

@Jonathan-Jones, thanks for the reply. yeah thats the angle i was looking at, and there is same options in conditions tab. i just need it to fire if a specific selection(horse) that i load into it is the actual 3rd fav 10mins before the off with correct odds range between 2 and 7.
i have the time part and odds range part sorted its just the other bit was bit unsure off. it does look possible like you say just about knowing exactly how it works hey.

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@Andy-Lucy

You can do this with fairbot.

I dontknow the exact requirments of that strategy but to bet on the 3rd fav is simple. You sort by back odds then pick position 3. The same format is used in the filter expressions too.

Andy Lucy

@kevin-curry
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/4020/bet-angel-automation-thread/175
post on here mate the guys will most likely have a bot or will help you out with it.

Andy Lucy

@kevin-curry hi i dont blame ya so much easier with the bots hey. i am currently with fairbot and have bots for my other strategys that seem to work fine and i understand them enough to play about but just the part where the selection has to be 3rd fav i am not so sure on. i will have a play with it this afternoon. if fairbots too basic i may have to move over and learn bet angel too.

kevin curry

@Andy-Lucy
hi thinking of
having an automation made up on bet angel which will do this

Andy Lucy

hi guys has anyone managed to create a bot for the lay 3rd fav strategy on fairbot? is it possible to do on there. thanks

kevin curry

Adam
"Good draw" will vary from course to course. I could look at adding some "draw value/bias" filters to help with this

that be great if you could i feel draw bias is very important i realize it will be a lot of data needed different tracks with different distances it will be a good extra filter to have in the armory
I

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@Adam
So the forecast price is something specific to this software. From what you say that would be static for the race and shouldnt change through the day. So i could download the qualifiers at 9am on the day of the race and it would be those values used for the backtest the next day, its not something like favourite or volume?

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@kevin-curry is that something to do with Pineapples?

Adam

@kevin-curry said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Hi, all I am new to BTC horse racing.
Can you help please I am looking to build my 1st horse racing strategy and if you could help me by giving me your suggested filters needed for the strategy,
Not even sure how to build it yet I am sure i get it.
I am looking to find 2 selections in a race where there is a good chance of the 2 selections finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any order.
i feel the 2 selections need to have multiple positives in today's race.
Some of my suggested filters positives
Good draw, ?
Proven at the course, ?
Proven over distance,
Proven in today's going.
Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end.
6 or more runners
Fav minimum price 6/4
2nd best price is a minimum price of 9/4

There are strategy rules for most of these, with these caveats:

"Good draw" will vary from course to course. I could look at adding some "draw value/bias" filters to help with this
There's no "won in today's going" rule (but there is for course, distance and both)
"Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end" - there's more of a bias to the early pace of the race in our pace calculations, but you could look at horses which are held up according to our rating but go on to do well in x% of their races...

With most of these, it's going to be a case of running different combinations of rules and then using the "group breakdown" feature to chop the data up in different ways and find stand-out selections for today's conditions.

Adam

@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Where does the software get its Forecast odds from?

They're compiled from a ton of different factors - recent form, distance, going, race type, etc.

How does the software deal with the ranking on Pace (for example if there are 4 horses at pace 12) how would it rank them?

Those 4 horses would all be rank 1, then the horse with the next best pace rating will be rank 5.

Greg Mitchell

@kevin-curry Not what I thought a Swinger was, but hey..

kevin curry

@Martin yes its a bet called Swinger with tote bet an overlooked bet

Martin

@kevin-curry @Adam is the two horse thing possible?

C&D can be a good indicator

kevin curry

Hi, all I am new to BTC horse racing.
Can you help please I am looking to build my 1st horse racing strategy and if you could help me by giving me your suggested filters needed for the strategy,
Not even sure how to build it yet I am sure i get it.
I am looking to find 2 selections in a race where there is a good chance of the 2 selections finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any order.
i feel the 2 selections need to have multiple positives in today's race.
Some of my suggested filters positives
Good draw, ?
Proven at the course, ?
Proven over distance,
Proven in today's going.
Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end.
6 or more runners
Fav minimum price 6/4
2nd best price is a minimum price of 9/4

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Thought i had a really good day yesterday with 36 points. But no, turns out according to the software i should of had 52 points. So another difference of more than 10 points. I know exactly why. Two bets failed to execute. One because of pace rank 1, the other because of Forecast price rank 1. The selections i had obviously dropped out promoting another horse to rank 1 (bet would of won so the theory behind the strats still worked).

So, obviously i am going to have to change my workflow. BFBM is probably going to have to be a part of that since with that you can nominate selections at any point in the day (cant with fairbot) as is deducing some things (like pace rank) myself just prior to the race.

So i can get some consistency can i ask a couple of questions?

@Adam
Where does the software get its Forecast odds from?
How does the software deal with the ranking on Pace (for example if there are 4 horses at pace 12) how would it rank them?

That way i can get the software to select races and other stuff but finalise the stuff like ranks just before the race.