The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Jonathan-Jones said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
I am going to post this strategy here. Feel free to use it but thats not why i am posting it. What i need is some help. I created this one mid last year (so you can see its forward performance is very good) but i never traded it. I picked it up again last week and wondered why i never bothered with it. Found that one out pretty quick. It appears untradable. Its actual results NEVER match backtest results. Not one single day matches. Most are off by several or over a dozen points. I would like to know why. It does use the favourite criteria BUT it triggers in the last second and so far all of the trades it has taken in reality do have BSP in the top 4 (so its nothing to do with horses moving in the order). I did think its the pace rank issue. If horses are NR then that will bring horses in that were not originally in the selections but this would result in the software in backtest having trades that i missed in reality. For me to have trades in reality the software doesnt in backtest would mean horses have been entered into the pace ranking ahead of the original selections.
So, i am stumped. The differences are a mix of trades actually taken in live but missing on the backtest and trades on the backtest but missing in reality.
It's because you are using pace rank. The non runners are throwing it out. It could potentially work in BFBM as you can get the selections to update hourly or even every minute in there so non runners would be a lot less of an issue.
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@Jonathan-Jones Can you add a few examples of horses that traded IRL but don't appear in the backtest? I'll go through them (probably after the weekend) and clarify why they're not there.
Obviously avoid any examples from around 5pm on June 1st for now.
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@Toyin-Butler
Nope. All so far have been pretty much in the middle ground. No edge cases and its a lot of them. Forgetting about the 1st of the month which was a total mess because of the missing data yesterday resulted in an 11 point difference. It was still profitable but thats a lot of value to be missing out on. Some days i am negative by 5 or so points but should be almost 10 points up. Thats the scale of the problem. i just cant figure it out because there is nothing special about the strategy. If i was consistently missing trades only i would put it down to the pace ranking and non-runners but i cant see how non-runners could see me taking trades the software doesnt have in backtest (and so many of them). Maybe i am wrong and the issue is entirely down to non-runners but its a frightning difference if that is the case. -
@Jonathan-Jones Are the trades that are missing outside of the odds range you have set? I've found that the odds filter isn't an exact science, for example I can run the same query for two different odds ranges and then another that combines them and I get a different answer.
i.e 2.0-2.99 and 3.0-3.99 does not equal 2.0-3.99.
When I drill down into the individual trades some appear in both odds ranges (at different odds) and as you would expect only once in the combined data.
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I am going to post this strategy here. Feel free to use it but thats not why i am posting it. What i need is some help. I created this one mid last year (so you can see its forward performance is very good) but i never traded it. I picked it up again last week and wondered why i never bothered with it. Found that one out pretty quick. It appears untradable. Its actual results NEVER match backtest results. Not one single day matches. Most are off by several or over a dozen points. I would like to know why. It does use the favourite criteria BUT it triggers in the last second and so far all of the trades it has taken in reality do have BSP in the top 4 (so its nothing to do with horses moving in the order). I did think its the pace rank issue. If horses are NR then that will bring horses in that were not originally in the selections but this would result in the software in backtest having trades that i missed in reality. For me to have trades in reality the software doesnt in backtest would mean horses have been entered into the pace ranking ahead of the original selections.
So, i am stumped. The differences are a mix of trades actually taken in live but missing on the backtest and trades on the backtest but missing in reality.
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@Jonathan-Jones bfbm mate. Honestly apart from speed making it useless for inrunning(I use bet Angel for that). It is miles above any other bot provider for what we do. I’m more than happy to help set your bots up right too. I’ve done that for a few. You won’t regret making the switch.
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Is there any way to download/extract the results of more than one strategy at once for say the past day, or week?
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Does anyone know of a solution for strats that use rankings (like pace rank) with the obvious issue of late non runners messing up the order? Looking for an automated solution really. Its becoming quite a consistent pain in the arse and costing double digit points monthly. I use fairbot for automation and it doesnt have any facility to check stuff like that.
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This is correct. It normally happens if you've imported the strategy from an old file or copied an old strategy.
When you re-select the columns you want and save the strategy (this being the key bit), the columns will be saved in the new format and shouldn't cause a problem again.
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@Jonathan-Jones thanks for reply
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@Nigel
Think its down to the version of the software the strat was originally saved in. I run a daily export and always use the same 5 fields. This was really frustrating me too. Just set it up how you want then save. You might also need to run it and save again. A couple of mine didnt stick but they are all ok now. -
hi all, why would my individual trades not display anything, the only way i can get it to display is to go into tailor your results selection and deselect the ones i want and then reselect them, then they will display , this is the case for all strats, thanks nigel
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@John-Folan hows you variation of LTBF been doing this month? the standard pre-set has been very poor this month. I have a couple of variations running on the software now that I will continue to monitor if this continues over the next few months
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@George-Bowling said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@John-Folan what have you been running John?
Short odd lays, pace backs a variations on LTBF and a couple of others in testing.
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@John-Folan what have you been running John?
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@Karl-Pick Good Luck with it Karl! Let us know how you get on next month with it!
I have only started testing myself and playing about with things for the past little while but wont be all that long untill I am joining you and taking the jump in too! -
Been testing, sampling and playing with 1k for 8 months, so June 1st is D-day.
Time to start properly 2k bank 2% stake per selection with no splits in races.....here's hoping.
I have decided to use the preset Course and Distance and Pace for my 2 strategies with my own research/checks on the selections to weed out prospective none triers.FINGERS CROSSED!!
PS still cannot get BFBM bot to work so at least with these 2 strategies I dont have to sit in front of the screen like with BTF and Layshort!!
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Backside handed to me on a plate yesterday. I think it was overdue. Serves me right for my previous post about how well things were going
