The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@Martin Was about 4 points but Im getting better
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@Martin Personally I get grumpy if I end a single month with a loss on a strategy
I'd usually stick it out for a quarter though and then look at the history to see if such a losing run has ever happened before and take a view.
If it's a strategy with bets all year round and there's been no return for a quarter, I'd definitely be thinking about moving on as there are better opportunities.
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@Tony-Hastie they must have been a long way from Manchester then as the weather here is awful
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@Martin The races I managed to catch didnt look to have any adverse weather. Only 2 meets and not many selections across all my(3) strategies but a profit day is a good day!
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@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
what does the draw bias number actually mean?
It's a relative measure of how favourable a particular stall is to winning the race. A value of 1.0 would mean that, all other things equal, the horses running from that stall have the same chance as every other stall of winning.
Below 1 means there's a bias towards losing the race and above 1 means there's a bias towards winning the race.
@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Is it something best used for a single course
Each combination of course, race type, distance and stall has its own draw bias value, so the course is already kind of baked in. That being said, I do sometimes still include those rules in strategies as well to reinforce the figure. Chester and Pontefract are good examples but most people know about the draw bias already so it can be harder to find value. Our draw bias figure helps you find lesser known draw biases.
@Tony-Hastie said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
We should be backing a horse running from that stall?
You're usually going to be backing a stall with a draw bias greater than 1 and laying a stall with a draw bias less than 1.
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@Martin Im not sure where to start! Somewhere I guess....Is it something best used for a single course(ive seen chester mentioned a bit) or can it be added to a strategy. And what does the draw bias number actually mean? We should be backing a horse running from that stall? I really have no idea! An explanation would make a good vid for youtube
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@Tony-Hastie @Adam is looking at adding weather in, what are you struggling with on draw bias? may be able to help!
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@Martin Ive not got my head around how to incorporate draw bias in the software....and I plain cant find the hot, cold, wet, dry options to evaluate a horses performance in a particular weather either
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@John-Folan how was it mate? how are the new teeth?
Was chatting with @Adam earlier and one thing we are finding in common with our strategies is that two of the biggest influences to results seem to be draw bias and weather.
Interested in everyone's thoughts on those!
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Read the first post on both threads.
Horse Trading Resources
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resourcesBfBotmanager
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion -
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@Tony-Hastie agree just about getting used to that kind of variance!
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@Martin Ive just put something together at high odds too. Just happened to watch the race the first selection was in and it was pipped at the post! Been laying so many horses felt I needed to back something
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@Tony-Hastie I've got a C&D winner that is down this month but it backs at high odds so lot of variance, not sure I love those kinds of strategies tbh
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@Martin Since the monday from hell its been business as usual for my Lay 3rd fav. My DOB is treading water. Think I mentioned it was 10 points up about a week ago...its still 10 points up!
