The BTC Horse Racing Thread

kevin curry

Hi, all I am new to BTC horse racing.
Can you help please I am looking to build my 1st horse racing strategy and if you could help me by giving me your suggested filters needed for the strategy,
Not even sure how to build it yet I am sure i get it.
I am looking to find 2 selections in a race where there is a good chance of the 2 selections finishing 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in any order.
i feel the 2 selections need to have multiple positives in today's race.
Some of my suggested filters positives
Good draw, ?
Proven at the course, ?
Proven over distance,
Proven in today's going.
Pace likes to be thereabouts at the end.
6 or more runners
Fav minimum price 6/4
2nd best price is a minimum price of 9/4

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Thought i had a really good day yesterday with 36 points. But no, turns out according to the software i should of had 52 points. So another difference of more than 10 points. I know exactly why. Two bets failed to execute. One because of pace rank 1, the other because of Forecast price rank 1. The selections i had obviously dropped out promoting another horse to rank 1 (bet would of won so the theory behind the strats still worked).

So, obviously i am going to have to change my workflow. BFBM is probably going to have to be a part of that since with that you can nominate selections at any point in the day (cant with fairbot) as is deducing some things (like pace rank) myself just prior to the race.

So i can get some consistency can i ask a couple of questions?

@Adam
Where does the software get its Forecast odds from?
How does the software deal with the ranking on Pace (for example if there are 4 horses at pace 12) how would it rank them?

That way i can get the software to select races and other stuff but finalise the stuff like ranks just before the race.

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BFBM question.
LTP. The last traded price is the last traded price whenever it happens but if you are running tight time margins (like last second before start) you actually need to know when that LTP was if you want to maintain consistent results between live and backtest. Fairbot cant do this. Was wondering if BFBM could in some way. If you could use time of LTP (better if betfair official recorded time) as a criteria would be perfect. Or, if you can trigger an action on a tick for that selection might also be useful.

Anyone know if something like that would be possible.

Adam

@Adam I am only filtering based on course, race type and the beaten fav filter. Presumably the odds range in the strategy builder doesn’t have an impact on the qualifiers that are pulled through or does that need to be widened too?

@Joseph-Henderson The odds range in the Betting Rules isn't considered for the qualifiers so shouldn't matter.

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@Karl-Pick

Just checked.
Fairbot totally messed up the PL on the race. On my betfair account its been paid.

Another reason to hasten the move to BFBM by the looks of it.

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@Jonathan-Jones betfair paid out, but only on 50% of price taken.
I took 7.6, so was paid out at 3.8...just check your profit and loss to make sure you got the money!

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@Toyin-Butler ...bloody with you on that one!! Thought we had WON to be honest...counting my Winnings...Prematurely!

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@Dan-MacKinnon

Never seen it before. Fairbot shows 2 winners. The software suggests Rievaulx Raver won, My betfair bet balance says Laser Guided won. Wondered if anyone watched the race or also has bets on those horses.

Joseph Henderson

@Adam I am only filtering based on course, race type and the beaten fav filter. Presumably the odds range in the strategy builder doesn’t have an impact on the qualifiers that are pulled through or does that need to be widened too?

Adam

This is a good point! I believe we already have deadheat handling on the roadmap. I'll bring it forward as a couple have happened recently!

Toyin Butler

@Jonathan-Jones This was a dead heat, I was watching this with a nice profit that was then halved There were effectively two half winners. I didn't check to see how the software handles dead heats.

Dan MacKinnon

@Jonathan-Jones how do you get two winners?

I know Adam has said before that sometimes if the data changes from betfair it takes a while to update the backtesting. Whenever I spot anything that seems wrong or out of sync with my results I mark it a different colour and go back to it in a couple of weeks to see. Tbf it hardly happens so most of the time I just ignore it

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Anyone any idea what this is all about?
Ripon 18:40 yesterday.
This is what he software backtest says:

For a very nice total profit of 25 points.

Except its complete fiction.

These are the bets actually taken:

Exactly the same bets yet it resulted in a loss on the race of a fraction of a point.

Interestingly fairbot looks like this:

So, i am guessing photo finish or something and the winner was changed. The software has the wrong winner.

Dan MacKinnon

I've been away for the past week and took a break from trading. Has LTBF righted itself or is it continuing to be a pain? The backtesting shows it's still struggling

Adam

@Joseph-Henderson It depends entirely on the criteria in your strategy.

If there's anything in there that could change between 07:00 and 13:30 then yes, that could change your qualifiers.

Joseph Henderson

@Adam Does this mean if you download the Daily Qualifiers at say 7am and upload them to BFBot, then not all selections that would appear at say 1.30pm will necessarily have pulled through by that time. I’m using a stripped filter so didn’t think the time I downloaded Daily Qualifiers mattered, but maybe I’m wrong. This might explain why my results from the Bot vary a bit to the results in the software, which is bugging me!

Adam

@Toyin-Butler said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Adam Just a thought, would it be possible to have an updated at reference on qualifiers?

Yes possibly, it's on the roadmap

Adam

@Greg-Mitchell said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@Adam Quick Question on the software, if I use the "Traded Rank" filter, and say chose just Rank 1 and then add whatever other filters I feel like. Then set it to place the bet at 10 seconds before the start time. Does it pick the horse that is traded Rank 1 at that time or the one that finished the race as rank 1?

Currently the final ranking, which I appreciate isn't useful. We are working on linking various similar stats to the entry time window instead of final values.

Toyin Butler

@Adam Just a thought, would it be possible to have an updated at reference on qualifiers?

Greg Mitchell

@Adam Quick Question on the software, if I use the "Traded Rank" filter, and say chose just Rank 1 and then add whatever other filters I feel like. Then set it to place the bet at 10 seconds before the start time. Does it pick the horse that is traded Rank 1 at that time or the one that finished the race as rank 1?