The BTC Horse Racing Thread

John Folan

Odds on lays 20/10

16:55 Kempton Bashful @1.40. Those magic words “ran respectfully when 5th”. Never set the world on fire looking at previous results. Poor draw as well. Should be at twos or threes at the least.

14:40 Newmarket Al [email protected]. Run once and finished second so the usual market overreaction. Upped in trip so untested at distance. Up against some interesting untested horses. Would probably put this one at 3’s

John Folan

Sadly the second didn’t play ball. Still a nice profit though. These are very much a work in progress but they have done well so far. As usual in my trading the upside outweighs the down so I only need to be right about half the time.

Keep It Simple Stupid. (KISS) trading rules.

John Folan

First double lay in so guaranteed profit of 1.5 points on those. Half a point liability left on tonight’s one

John Folan

Just over a point Profit on the odds on lays

John Folan

Same in the 15:25 for just over a points liability

John Folan

Also laid first two favourites in 19:00 Kempton for just over half a point total liability

John Folan

Odds On Lays 19/10

13:00 Exeter Mick Pastor @1.41. Literally a two horse race. The second favourite has run in second numerous times. I am not turning down the price to lay.

13:55 Yarmouth Clitheroe @ 1.49.
5th in its last race and it is now odds on. Quite like the look of Favourite Child for this one.

14:30 Yarmouth Tarhib @1.09. I cannot turn this price down(Altior twice at this price ). Be interesting to see what effect the rain has on it.

14:15 Newcastle Dubai [email protected] Up against the Menstone Gem who he lost to at this c and d on the 27th. Couple of debut horses with interesting parents.

14:20 Gowran Park Sunset [email protected]. I get the impression he doesn’t like the wet. Ground good turn heavy. That makes this race a lottery.

John Folan

@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

I have laid the top 3 favourites in the 8pm at wolves. 6 horses in the race. A point and a half maximum liability risked to win 3 points.

Favourite won so a tiny profit. Will watch for more of these

John Folan

I have laid the top 3 favourites in the 8pm at wolves. 6 horses in the race. A point and a half maximum liability risked to win 3 points.

John Folan

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

@john-folan There definitely has to be something decent in laying favourites, especially when you consider that the price is usually driven lower by money in the market rather than by true probability. I’ve not looked at it personally but when the software is out it’ll definitely be something to look at it

So any favourite under 1.5 on the all weather is a go.

Tbh the all weather is a s**t show for favourites generally. With a bit of work we could do really well.

? Offline

@john-folan There definitely has to be something decent in laying favourites, especially when you consider that the price is usually driven lower by money in the market rather than by true probability. I’ve not looked at it personally but when the software is out it’ll definitely be something to look at it

John Folan

Just been doing some dicking around on the Adrian Massey site. It is profitable laying all odds on favourites over the last ten years. I’m sure with some work we can go higher on the odds once the horse software is available and maybe get some sort of system in place.

I will be continuing these long term regardless as they do alright and I like doing them. I always have.

John Folan

About a 0.7 loss today. That first race knackered it

? Offline

@john-folan cheers Botox Has!

John Folan

Annoying. The main challenge in the first race was a non runner. However the adjustment in odds meant the lay was at 1.03 so nothing lost

John Folan

One potential today. Hovering just above the 3.5-9.0 Odds Range

John Folan

Right let’s see how we get on with this lot

Odds On Lays 18/10

13:55 Plumpton Midnights Legacy @1.84. Couldn’t wait to lay this one(which means it now wins). Switch to hurdles for the first time. Terrible recent record and a great close challenger in Haddex Des Obeuax.

14:55 Pontefract Stag Horn @1.97. Last win was on this race last year when in really good form. Has done nothing in the three races since. Meanwhile the three closest odds wise are all in better form recently.

15:40 Plumpton. Botox Has @1.98
Just looking at the last three races was reason enough to lay it. Has good form previously but over shorter distances. Two competitions among the other two runners and it is anyone's race.

16:15 Plumpton. Royaume Uni @16:15. Again recent record is awful when compared against the second favourite. This horse is well underpriced for what it is. Not been a great hurdler at all.

Nothing at Wolves at the moment but it’s early for that. Will keep an eye and see if anything is worth laying later on.

John Folan

@paul-glynn said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:

Bad day today - forgot about a horse I had to trade on in the 3.15 kempton and the bloody thing didn't win either - so frustrating £50 down

I hate live trading Sundays so I don’t bother anymore. Made too many c**k ups like that.

? Offline

Bad day today - forgot about a horse I had to trade on in the 3.15 kempton and the bloody thing didn't win either - so frustrating £50 down

John Folan

For the sake of keeping score